Turkish-backed attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan with formal declaration of War

[TheRejectionist]

I'm not seeing a transition in power that could occur quick enough to bring Armenia proper into the conflict, certainly not in a short time frame. Nagorno-Karabakh is even smaller now and the power imbalance is dramatic between the NKR and the Azeri Armed Forces.

Me neither.

I'm hoping at the very least that the Azeris stop casually executing and massacring prisoners and intentionally targeting civilians during their (re)conquest of territory that while internationally recognized as Azeri, seemed to of been largely populated by Armenians in this respect for a few generations at least.

No, if you see whàt they did to one femàle POW they àre going full on Dirlenwàger Brigàde most likely. Regular Azeris are fine people, but when it comes to Armenians or this area I have seen many of them do discourses that do border on a form of speech I have seen of ultramilitarism and revisionistic nationalism.
You see their politicians like they speak on social media and they resemble...well those who lost WW2.
My Azeri friend does tell that if they wanted to cleanse them all they would have already done it and there are still Armenians in Azerbaijan but... he is a bit too candid on how "good" Alieyv is and even me teasing him about his president seemed to get him comically upset...still in a good way but it did raise an eyebrow to me.

 

[Marduk]

Welp, on the formal side Armenia was always on the losing side Karabakh wise, should have made compromises when their cards still had trade value. Now their Russia card has little value, their might makes right card failed, and they are SOL.
West may be interested in doing something if Azeris go beyond their internationally recognized territory or do mucho war crimes, and Iranians may do something if they try to cut the Armenia-Iran land connection, but outside of those options they are stuck with diplomacy from weaker position.

Great example of people arriving to the same conclusion through very different logic

Guess the expected was announced openly.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

and Iranians may do something if they try to cut the Armenia-Iran land connection

I am darkly interested in seeing what would happen.

 

[TheRejectionist]

I am darkly interested in seeing what would happen.

You might be dàrkly interested in this às well :



I didn't expect àt àll à Germàn, much less àn afd member, to tell Bàku to stop.

Not thàt it will do ànything.

Weird times.

 

[Marduk]

I didn't expect àt àll à Germàn, much less àn afd member, to tell Bàku to stop.

Not thàt it will do ànything.

Weird times.

AfD? More than expected considering their sympathies.

Also, seems like the Azeri gambit has paid off.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Azerbaijan is establishing itself as a power to be reckoned with in the Caucasus region. I fear its disagreements with Armenia have only just begun.

 

[TheRejectionist]

AfD? More than expected considering their sympathies.

I'm unàwàre of which sympàthies àtm, but I remember them às being somewhàt the kind of pàrty in line with the phràse "we are sorry we lost the war not that we actually started it". Frankly is disheartening that in a twisted sense of humor the seem to be the only genuine alternative to German politcs

Also, seems like the Azeri gambit has paid off.

If I am somewhàt doubtful about them keeping their word but it's not like we can do much about it.

Azerbaijan is establishing itself as a power to be reckoned with in the Caucasus region. I fear its disagreements with Armenia have only just begun.

Well, it more like à powerful puppet or sàtellite of Turkey. I hope you are wrong on your second sentence. But it is true that Aliyev has claimed Armenia as West Azerbaijan, despite they also claim to be descendant of Seljuk Turks, which are not native to any part of Armenia or the Caucasus for that matter.

 

[Husky_Khan]

BREAKING:

Snoop Doggs scheduled concert in Yerevan will be delayed due to the situation in Artsakh.



Stay strong Snoop Dogg fans! 💪

 

[Husky_Khan]

After twenty four hours of fighting there are estimates of 200 killed and 400 wounded (assumingly) Armenian/Artsakh citizens. This includes more then forty civilian casualties with at least ten killed including five children. The number is expected to rise.

 

[TheRejectionist]

After twenty four hours of fighting there are estimates of 200 killed and 400 wounded (assumingly) Armenian/Artsakh citizens. This includes more then forty civilian casualties with at least ten killed including five children. The number is expected to rise.

meàntime this is happening wheter good or bàd.

 

[TheRejectionist]

 

[TheRejectionist]

Azeri humàn rights activist hàve some speculation on the protests :



However this also was one of the replies :

 

[TheRejectionist]

This interesting in my opinion @Husky_Khan not that it would make a difference but I thought you might wànt to see it :





That's disheartening...but then again we have China who would organ harvest even loyal citizens.

By the way, I just discovered that the president of AZ nominated his own wife as VP. I would say who the fuck who would that in is right mind but then I remembered my mother's country's neighbor, Argentina, had Peron's wife as VP...

So, àlso àn (àlleged) shift in rhetoric :

 

[Husky_Khan]

Well I don't think it's much of a mystery that Aliyev is an authoritarian whose engaged in election fraud and basically has no actual political challengers now. So far it seems to have benefited Azerbaijan much like resource rich dictatorships have benefited other countries sometimes. One of the main problems of authoritarianism is simply being obligated to the one person and one party for long term competent management since there is no stable method for removing them from office if and when they start fucking up.

With all that aside, I feel pretty sketchy about the organ harvesting on the face of it. I feel it's almost become a meme at this juncture of war crime allegations.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Aliyev is still jailing political opponents however. And he's obviously aggressive and sending Azeribaijanis to War. Regardless of whether you think the war aims in Nagorno-Karabakh are legitimate, justified or noble or not, it was an "unnecessary" war back in 2020 and an unnecessary war now. Armenia is of barely any threat to Azerbaijan and the latter could likely be just as prosperous without Nagorno-Karabakh as it is with it. And lots of people are dying for it including Azeris. Conversely people engage in what may or may not be legitimate, justified and/or noble military actions that are ultimately "unnecessary" fairly often. It's usually not a conventional war like these ones were though which kinda makes it notable.

It does seem hopeful though, that after losing Nagorno-Karabakh (as unjustified as Azerbaijan is IMHO) there might be a chance for stabilization of the South Caucasus and Aliyev stating that does give me hope for the regions future. Armenia is in a tough place geographically and with Russia unfortunately (for Armenia) unable to fulfill its obligations, Armenia can hopefully have a chance to pursue a path of neutrality hopefully that Pashinyan wanted to follow when he was first elected.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Well I don't think it's much of a mystery that Aliyev is an authoritarian whose engaged in election fraud and basically has no actual political challengers now. So far it seems to have benefited Azerbaijan much like resource rich dictatorships have benefited other countries sometimes. One of the main problems of authoritarianism is simply being obligated to the one person and one party for long term competent management since there is no stable method for removing them from office if and when they start fucking up.

With all that aside, I feel pretty sketchy about the organ harvesting on the face of it. I feel it's almost become a meme at this juncture of war crime allegations.

Whàt surprises me the most is thàt the clàim is coming from Azerbaijainis against the Azerbaijaini dictator and said organ harvesting is happening...against Azerbaijani soldiers that died in battle. That's what the surprise to me.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Aliyev is still jailing political opponents however. And he's obviously aggressive and sending Azeribaijanis to War. Regardless of whether you think the war aims in Nagorno-Karabakh are legitimate, justified or noble or not, it was an "unnecessary" war back in 2020 and an unnecessary war now. Armenia is of barely any threat to Azerbaijan and the latter could likely be just as prosperous without Nagorno-Karabakh as it is with it. And lots of people are dying for it including Azeris. Conversely people engage in what may or may not be legitimate, justified and/or noble military actions that are ultimately "unnecessary" fairly often. It's usually not a conventional war like these ones were though which kinda makes it notable.

Usually I disagree with you but we are on the same page here. Yeah he has been jailing anyone before, his father is ex local KGB, I remember it was reported they did that even on a major event in Baku when there was the EU and nobody did anything of value.

It does seem hopeful though, that after losing Nagorno-Karabakh (as unjustified as Azerbaijan is IMHO) there might be a chance for stabilization of the South Caucasus and Aliyev stating that does give me hope for the regions future. Armenia is in a tough place geographically and with Russia unfortunately (for Armenia) unable to fulfill its obligations, Armenia can hopefully have a chance to pursue a path of neutrality hopefully that Pashinyan wanted to follow when he was first elected.

You know there are two options that I have seen floating around : 1) Pashnyan has thrown under the bus Artsakh to join EU and NATO so he didn't have any territorial disputes (but that would be relatively stupid and idiotic precedent to be set) 2) Alieyv, despite all the talks, has been somewhat the dog of Putin, because both have something to gain : a) NK for AZ b) an unpopular Pashnyan means a potential overthrow of him, which means in turn that there is a good chance the next Armenian leader could be pro-Russia.

I personally don't see these two "potential" truths cancelling each other out

 

[Marduk]

You know there are two options that I have seen floating around : 1) Pashnyan has thrown under the bus Artsakh to join EU and NATO so he didn't have any territorial disputes (but that would be relatively stupid and idiotic precedent to be set)

The territorial dispute by 2020 at the latest turned into a precarious mess to hold onto. It made Armenia reliant on Russian commitment to not get a war restart and an asskicking. Then, however the specific turn of events happened, Moscow thought Armenia is not obedient enough puppet, or other events took too much of its attention, either way Armenia couldn't physically defend its position nor have Russia defend it for them, and in light of no international recognition of the separatist republic, there were no other options as things stand, because western powers would not go to sufficiently hard measures as economic sanctions or even military intervention to defend what they themselves consider an illegal landgrab in the first place.

On the other hand, once Armenia backs down to its internationally recognized borders with no funny business, defense deals with countries like France or USA that were not possible before will become politically acceptable.

2) Alieyv, despite all the talks, has been somewhat the dog of Putin, because both have something to gain : a) NK for AZ b) an unpopular Pashnyan means a potential overthrow of him, which means in turn that there is a good chance the next Armenian leader could be pro-Russia.

I personally don't see these two "potential" truths cancelling each other out

True. Still, let's not forget that AZ energy business with EU really steps on Russia's energy blackmail potential against EU.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I've been seeing a lot of anti-Putin and anti-Russian protests mingled in with the rest of it in Yerevan plus a lot of the Armenian diaspora is in the West so I feel a pro-Russian candidate or political movement seems doubtful in the near future.

And even if it was I don't think it'd be a good idea for Armenia anytime soon. The only way they'd get Russian support in case something naughty occurs would be via Iran. Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their territories and airspace to Armenia with obvious reason in the last conflict. And that's independent of Russia having its own issues right now.

I think the positive neutral path Pashinyan was pursuing is the best so far like I stated before. They won't have to ostracize Iran if they maintain neutrality and countries like France and India can still trade arms with them. And they'd still be members of the CSTO for whatever that's worth.

 

[TheRejectionist]

On the other hand, once Armenia backs down to its internationally recognized borders with no funny business, defense deals with countries like France or USA that were not possible before will become politically acceptable.

I am not doubting that. Though I don't see how much patronage from Europe can happen or European elites can keep their word. Or make Aliyev keep his. France seems the only one genuine about it, in fact I am surprised of the few words he spoke about it.

True. Still, let's not forget that AZ energy business with EU really steps on Russia's energy blackmail potential against EU.

I am not sure how much it is the stepping on considering how they are both OPEC members (granted, OPEC +) and if I understood correctly it was mostly agreed by all members to cut oil production and it does look like they all agreed, Moscow and Baku included.

I've been seeing a lot of anti-Putin and anti-Russian protests mingled in with the rest of it in Yerevan plus a lot of the Armenian diaspora is in the West so I feel a pro-Russian candidate or political movement seems doubtful in the near future.

There's a mix from both anti Pashnyan and pro-Pashnyan from what I understand and both are right in protesting. I agree that both options suck.

And even if it was I don't think it'd be a good idea for Armenia anytime soon. The only way they'd get Russian support in case something naughty occurs would be via Iran. Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan closed their territories and airspace to Armenia with obvious reason in the last conflict. And that's independent of Russia having its own issues right now.

There is speculation Iran is next, though it is seems to be coming more from Baku than Turkey. Besides me being pro-Armenian due to friendships and my own takes (so yeah I am biased on this for personal reasons), I would side against Turkey because of Erdogan and I still have someone dear to me there, maybe you remember I even mentioned it here in the Sietch.

I think the positive neutral path Pashinyan was pursuing is the best so far like I stated before. They won't have to ostracize Iran if they maintain neutrality and countries like France and India can still trade arms with them. And they'd still be members of the CSTO for whatever that's worth.

I am not sure if he will see the end of this or next week, so making speculations is still hard and too early.

Thing is, for the upteenth time, Armenians have been martyrs.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I am not doubting that. Though I don't see how much patronage from Europe can happen or European elites can keep their word. Or make

There's a mix from both anti Pashnyan and pro-Pashnyan from what I understand and both are right in protesting. I agree that both options suck.

Armenia has many good reasons to be anti-Turkish obviously and to an extent anti-Azeri as well but unfortunately due to geographic realities they really can't afford to. Like with Ukraine (REGARDLESS of what you feel about the underpinnings or legitimacy of the Euromaiden 2014 Revolution) Armenia was in an even worse position then Ukraine was in 2014. Pashinyan's safest play when he took office was to be firmly in Russia's sphere of influence because only Russia could practically protect Armenia from Azerbaijan and/or Turkey.

There is a question whether Russia would've supported Pashinyan and Armenia more if the Azeris attacked NKR if Armenia pursued a more dedicated pro-Russia foreign policy instead of a neutral one or if Azerbaijan would've attacked at all. But Russia was supplying both sides with significant amounts of military arms and no one recognized NKR as Armenian territory so the CSTO wouldn't intervene. And after 2020 I feel Russia's power in Armenia would be on the rise as the guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus.

But then the War in Ukraine happened and I feel Azeri aggression would be inevitable. If Russia wasn't in a long term quagmire/conflict things might be different but they aren't. Russia can't guarantee NKR security in our timeline and if Pashinyan pursued a more pro-Russian path I'm doubtful Russia could've secured NKR even then either. But that's a hypothetical.

The point of this rant is... uhhh... lemme think a moment.

Oh yeah... Armenia might not wanna make friends with Turkey and Azerbaijan... but due to their situation I feel they have to do as best as they practically can. I think remaining in the CSTO, remaining friendly with Iran and even Russia, remaining neutral (which means no EU most likely and certainly no NATO) and pursuing positive relationships with whatever Western powers like France or Greece and other powers like India is their best bet.

Obviously I think Armenia could benefit from closer ties with EU and NATO but it's not realistic at this time. Turkey is a NATO power and the local power in the region and they have a pretty strong veto over Armenia at the very least plus the plethora of other issues. Positive neutrality seems like the best bet and not being beholden to any single country for 95% of your defense needs.

I think pursuing a strong pro-Russia policy now or in the near future is just a really bad idea unless Armenia really feels that their territorial integrity is under threat, not just NKR. In which case... they would need the CSTO.

There is speculation Iran is next, though it is seems to be coming more from Baku than Turkey.

I have a pretty high opinion on the resourcefulness of the Iranians. If your speculation is that Turkey and/or Azerbaijan can threaten Iran... that's true... but I feel any conventional conflict with Iran would be a quagmire as well. Even if Turkey had US/Western and/or Gulf State backing. As an aside it'd probably impact Russia as well since Iran has been a source of munitions for Russia as well.

 

[Marduk]

Russians when a country loses a war: