Turkish-backed attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan with formal declaration of War

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
@Husky_Khan

On one hands there is this :

Armenia says peace deal with Azerbaijan possible by year end, TASS reports

But yeah the Armenians seems to have little trust in their eastern neighbors.


 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
The CSTO prohibits their members from signing any other defense agreements. Only the CSTO can intervene in their behalf thusly.

India and France are selling them weapons recently. Russia meanwhile has billions in a backlog of arms for Armenia.

Azerbaijan has accused Russian Peacekeepers of supplying arms to Artsakh Separatists but no tangible proof. And a few weeks ago Russian Peacekeepers were fired up on and some wounded by Azeri fire amongst all of the low level skirmishing that's gone on.





latest news I could find. Hopefully it makes a difference.
 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist

Armenia PM wishes Turkey's Erdogan happy Eid as Azerbaijan targets Nagorno-Karabakh

Diplomatic sources say the call comes amid an ongoing effort aimed at getting Turkey to rein in an increasingly aggressive Azerbaijan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attends a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council at the Kremlin in Moscow on May 25, 2023. - MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images




June 28, 2023
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday amid spiraling tensions between his nation and Ankara's close regional ally Azerbaijan, part of what regional diplomatic sources say is an ongoing effort aimed at getting Ankara to rein in an increasingly aggressive Baku. The Turkish presidency said in a statement that Pashinyan had congratulated the Turkish people on the occasion of the Muslim Feast of Sacrifice or Eid al-Adha, an unusual move for the leader of a majority Christian nation.
According to the readout of the conversation, the two leaders also touched upon ongoing normalization talks aimed at restoring full diplomatic relations and reopening the land border between the two countries. Regional officials speaking not for attribution to Al-Monitor said that Pashinyan continues to believe that detente with Ankara is the best guarantee of fending off another full-scale attack by Azerbaijan and is courting Erdogan to that end. Armenian officials hope that former Turkish spy chief Hakan Fidan's appointment as foreign minister will bring new impetus to the talks.
Pashinyan was among the first leaders to congratulate Erdogan over his May victory in twin polls that saw his right-wing alliance win a majority in parliament as well.
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According to protocol, Armenia's president, Vahagn Khatchaturyan, should have attended Erdogan's extravagant inauguration bash. However, Pashinyan elbowed him aside and showed up instead.
Wednesday's phone call, initiated by Pashinyan, came amid reports that four Armenian servicemen had been killed after Azerbaijan carried out strikes early Wednesday along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh. The day prior, Azerbaijan claimed one of its own men had been killed in the zone by Armenian forces. The spike coincided with US-mediated talks in Washington aimed at securing a lasting peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries last went to war in 2020 over the disputed enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has an ethnic Armenian majority.
Azerbaijan emerged victorious with Turkey's and Israel's help, wresting back all of its territories occupied by Armenia in a previous war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s.
Olessya Vartanyan, the International Crisis Group's senior analyst in the South Caucasus who recently traveled to Yerevan, noted that Armenia has a pretty low bar. "I didn't get the sense that there are hopes that Ankara can pressure Baku," Vartanyan said. "Rather, they are maintaining the strategy of engaging Ankara in order to avoid its full-scale participation (on the side of Azerbaijan) in case of a new war."
Fears of conflict have been brewing since last year when Azerbaijan imposed a blockade on the sole route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia proper, starving civilians of vital supplies and escalating attacks on Armenian forces inside Armenian territory.
Russian peacekeepers deployed to the region in keeping with a truce brokered by the Kremlin in November 2020 have failed to halt the violence. "Moscow is absolutely useless, no matter whether it attempts to resolve the crisis or not," Vartanyan observed.
The International Crisis Group reckons that at least 1,200 military personnel have either died or been wounded since then. The bulk of those killed along the front lines are Armenians. Azerbaijanis constitute the majority injured or killed by landmines.
Turkey-Armenia normalization talks that kicked off in Moscow in January 2022 have yielded little so far, even after Pashinyan formally conceded that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan.
A first, minuscule reward came a full year later when Turkey lifted its ban on direct cargo flights with Armenia. The sides are still working on the details of allowing third-country nationals and bearers of diplomatic passports to use the land border that was sealed by Ankara in solidarity with Baku in 1993 at the height of the first conflict, which was won by Armenia.
"Erdogan's position is very clear: 'Satisfy (Azerbaijani President Ilham) Aliyev's desires and you will have something tangible on Turkish-Armenian relations,'" noted Benyamin Poghosyan, a Yerevan-based political analyst. As for Pashinyan, "I believe he simply wants to create a positive image of himself in the United States and the EU that, despite Erdogan's position, he is a constructive guy."
The United States and the EU have urged Azerbaijan to lift the blockade, but Azerbaijan's strongman Aliyev has grown ever more intransigent due to growing European dependence on his country's vast natural gas supplies that are piped to the continent via Turkey. The invasion of Ukraine has further eroded the Kremlin's influence over former Soviet states, allowing Aliyev to grow ever more aggressive and for Turkey to expand its footprint in Russia's backyard.
"Baku continues escalating despite (the US-brokered) talks," Vartanyan said. "The region is left hoping that only US and EU involvement can prevent another war."
 

IndyFront

Well-known member
The rift between Azerbaijan and the West seems to be intensifying. Basically no one besides Turkey (and even they've broken with Azerbaijan a few times iirc) is still putting up with any of this shit
 
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Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
The rift between Azerbaijan and the West seems to be intensifying. Basically no one besides Turkey (and even they've broken with Azerbaijan a few times iirc) is still putting up with any of this shit
>Belgium
>Canada
Hardly "the West". Not exactly countries particularly interested or able to meaningfully interfere in the events, quite the opposite.
This is a bit less... factional source on the real controversy currently at hand, the Lachin corridor blockade, and what it is about.
TL;DR Azeris have established checkpoint(s?) on the corridor months ago. Many of the more influential western powers have "expressed concern" over this since months but there doesn't seem to be any more serious reaction.

Turkey does seem to stand by that blockade according to most recent news i saw.

Not sure how strict exactly the limitations are, but the conflict seems to be that Armenia was accused of transporting military supplies by the corridor and illegal mining along it, while the Armenian side with a lot of humanitarian oriented organizations and governments claim that this is either severely throttling or completely blocking (depending on who you ask) vital humanitarian supplies to Nagorno-Karabakh, demanding it should be opened to be free and unimpeded... which Azerbaijan is unwilling to do because it does nothing regarding their concerns.
This is a situation in which even both sides may be correct in their claims, but a compromise in form of regulated humanitarian route, not necessarily by the Lachin corridor specifically, should be technically possible...
Compromise which seems to be what USA has strongly suggested according to this Forbes piece:
On July 30, 3023, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev to express deep concern for the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Reportedly, "Secretary Blinken underscored the urgent need for free transit of commercial, humanitarian, and private vehicles through the Lachin corridor, and emphasized the need for compromise on alternative routes so humanitarian supplies can reach the population of Nagorno-Karabakh." It is not clear what was the resolution of that conversation.
Now it seems that everyone is playing for time in hope the other side will give up to the pressure, with possible additional motive of Azerbaijan subtly going "come at me bro" in hope that Armenia will start a military escalation over it and give them an excuse to make the situation on the ground even more favorable to themselves.

Le Monde also agrees that this is part of a greater breakdown in negotiations:
 
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IndyFront

Well-known member
>Belgium
>Canada
Hardly "the West". Not exactly countries particularly interested or able to meaningfully interfere in the events, quite the opposite.
Oh those were just a few examples, I can give a looot more. First off we have a prominent US political leader visiting Armenia during their most recent clashes, and then you also had the US secretary of state calling Aliyev and directly demanding the withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces and extremely recently French President Macron loudly and caustically condemned the Azeri blockade, "Regarding the nearly nine-month blockade of Artsakh, Macron highlighted in the interview that diplomacy alone is insufficient at this juncture. He underscored France's commitment to upholding pressure for humanitarian access, elaborating that the country is actively pursuing initiatives to deliver essential goods and medicines while ensuring unobstructed entry to Karabakh. However, the specifics of these initiatives or the resolution itself were not elaborated upon by the French President, who is a permanent member of the UN Security Council."

And, again, this started with the most recent military clashes between the two countries. You also had an EU head openly condemn it as an occupation of Armenian territory by Azerbaijan, and more recently "EU Reaffirms Support For Reopening Lachin Corridor To Nagorno-Karabakh". Brazil, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Iceland, Ireland, Lebanon, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, the United States, and the European Union have all at some point condemned Azerbaijan or supported Artsakh against the blockade of the Lachin corridor.

At the same time, Armenia has been drifting away from Russia and toward NATO and the United States since the 2000s...
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Yeah...

I know Godwin's Law has been done to death already, but crap like this convinces me that if there's any country (besides China) that could become the next Nazi Germany before this century ends, it's probably Turkey.

They've already got Neo-Ottoman revanchism going and have gone all-in on genocide denial, both of which kind of desensitize the population to whatever atrocities their government is planning. So, really, I think the foundation for an expansionist Turkey that's outright genocidal towards a slew of their neighbors is already being laid. :(
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Umm, easy on the axe grinding here, this is absolutely not what is being said in this very short statement.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Secretary Blinken welcomed a halt to recent hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He urged President Aliyev to adhere to the ceasefire, disengage military forces, and work to resolve all outstanding issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan through peaceful negotiations.
Where is the "direct demand to withdraw"? Adhering to ceasefire? Disengaging (which means a different thing) military forces? Resolving issues?
Doesn't seem contradictory with Blinken's previous measured statement i linked.

and extremely recently French President Macron loudly and caustically condemned the Azeri blockade, "Regarding the nearly nine-month blockade of Artsakh, Macron highlighted in the interview that diplomacy alone is insufficient at this juncture. He underscored France's commitment to upholding pressure for humanitarian access, elaborating that the country is actively pursuing initiatives to deliver essential goods and medicines while ensuring unobstructed entry to Karabakh. However, the specifics of these initiatives or the resolution itself were not elaborated upon by the French President, who is a permanent member of the UN Security Council."

Yeah, France seems to be somewhat more leaning towards Armenia than USA, in fact some time ago it was suggested that it's gunning to replace Russia as its patron.

Yeah, yeah, lots of condemning, but is anyone going to actually do anything?
 

IndyFront

Well-known member
Umm, easy on the axe grinding here, this is absolutely not what is being said in this very short statement.

Where is the "direct demand to withdraw"? Adhering to ceasefire? Disengaging (which means a different thing) military forces? Resolving issues?
It wasn't a direct demand I just misread the statement, wasn't "axegrinding" but he absolutely did call to express concern over the conflict along the Armenia–Azerbaijan border, including Azerbaijani shelling in Armenia, and asked President Aliyev to cease Azerbaijani hostilities.
 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
>Belgium
>Canada
Hardly "the West". Not exactly countries particularly interested or able to meaningfully interfere in the events, quite the opposite.
This is a bit less... factional source on the real controversy currently at hand, the Lachin corridor blockade, and what it is about.
TL;DR Azeris have established checkpoint(s?) on the corridor months ago. Many of the more influential western powers have "expressed concern" over this since months but there doesn't seem to be any more serious reaction.

Turkey does seem to stand by that blockade according to most recent news i saw.

Not sure how strict exactly the limitations are, but the conflict seems to be that Armenia was accused of transporting military supplies by the corridor and illegal mining along it, while the Armenian side with a lot of humanitarian oriented organizations and governments claim that this is either severely throttling or completely blocking (depending on who you ask) vital humanitarian supplies to Nagorno-Karabakh, demanding it should be opened to be free and unimpeded... which Azerbaijan is unwilling to do because it does nothing regarding their concerns.
This is a situation in which even both sides may be correct in their claims, but a compromise in form of regulated humanitarian route, not necessarily by the Lachin corridor specifically, should be technically possible...
Compromise which seems to be what USA has strongly suggested according to this Forbes piece:

Now it seems that everyone is playing for time in hope the other side will give up to the pressure, with possible additional motive of Azerbaijan subtly going "come at me bro" in hope that Armenia will start a military escalation over it and give them an excuse to make the situation on the ground even more favorable to themselves.

Le Monde also agrees that this is part of a greater breakdown in negotiations:

UPDATE Tragedy is unfolding in Nagorno Karabakh. The time for action is now
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
Varuzhan Nersesyan (Armenian: Վարուժան Ներսեսյան) is an Armenian diplomat who is currently the ambassador of Armenia to the United Kingdom.

It's his duty to push the interests of his country and he is fulfilling it. But i can't consider that remotely objective.
This obviously also isn't objective, but it shows the official stance of the other side.

Furthermore, if the Armenians in Karabakh are really hungry, then it would not care how and by whom the food is sent there instead of building barricades on the road to block the food convoy sent from Baku. So, the main goal of this political show they set up is precisely to gain the opportunity to carry weapons and ammunition without supervision from the Lachin road. And this means now the whole world has seen that the "humanitarian disaster" claims are nothing but an Armenian fabrication.

Therefore, by refusing to accept the food sent by Azerbaijan they have created a moral dilemma for themselves. Consequently, by blocking the food convoy led by the Red Crescent Armenia shows that she is seriously worried about the possibility of opening the Aghdam-Khankendi road. Stated differently, it tries to be an obstacle to the reintegration of the Armenian minority of Karabakh into the Azerbaijani society.
To put it briefly, Azerbaijan is ready to supply the Armenians living in Khankendi with food and essentials, transporting them along the Aghdam-Khankendi road. In parallel, from another standpoint, the fact is that Azerbaijan settled the 30-year-old problem by military means and restored its territorial integrity. The establishment of the border crossing checkpoint in Lachin was the last stage of that process. By creating this checkpoint, Baku has closed the borders of Azerbaijan within the framework of international legal norms. Nobody can change this reality.
Looks to me like silly games are being played under cover of "humanitarian concerns" used to fool gullible westerners.​
 
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TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
Varuzhan Nersesyan (Armenian: Վարուժան Ներսեսյան) is an Armenian diplomat who is currently the ambassador of Armenia to the United Kingdom.

It's his duty to push the interests of his country and he is fulfilling it. But i can't consider that remotely objective.
This obviously also isn't objective, but it shows the official stance of the other side.



Looks to me like silly games are being played under cover of "humanitarian concerns" used to fool gullible westerners.​

I am inclined to agree with you in this rare occasion @Marduk

But considering that in two occasions (aptly both named Baku Pogroms) and how they treated one female soldier that made into international news... and many more factors...I have more reason to believe the Armenian side than Azeri, this despite having an Azeri friend.
 

Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member
I am inclined to agree with you in this rare occasion @Marduk

But considering that in two occasions (aptly both named Baku Pogroms) and how they treated one female soldier that made into international news... and many more factors...I have more reason to believe the Armenian side than Azeri, this despite having an Azeri friend.
Even some Armenian sources admit that this is about more than humanitarian situation, which is what makes sense out of the less discussed aspects of the situation.
The Aghdam-Stepanakert road is considered by Azerbaijan as the primary alternative to the Lachin corridor. The reason for Baku's insistence on opening this road is rather apparent, as it aligns with their strategy of coercive "integration." The concept is straightforward: to completely "integrate" Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan, it must be effectively disconnected from Armenia. This disconnection involves both infrastructural and socio-economic aspects. It is clear that a significant objective of the blockade imposed on Nagorno-Karabakh was to advance this agenda of coercive "integration."
Unfortunately all sides seem perfectly willing to sacrifice the immediate humanitarian situation in Karabakh for the sake of getting a victory in actual control of the territory.

Money quote:
The main concern is the perception that opening the Aghdam road would essentially initiate the process of Nagorno-Karabakh's absorption by Azerbaijan.

Two trucks belonging to the Azerbaijan Red Crescent Society carrying 40 tons of flour reached the Azerbaijani town of Aghdam on Tuesday after state-run news agencies said Baku intended to deliver the supplies to Stepanakert.


The convoy plans to use the long-shuttered route connecting the Nagorno-Karabakh town of Askeran and Aghdam, which Armenia ceded to Azerbaijan after the 2020 war, but as of Wednesday evening local time, the trucks reportedly remained stuck in Aghdam, with Russian peacekeepers deployed to the area blocking them from moving forward.


The Azerbaijan Red Crescent Society is Azerbaijan's national affiliate of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and is separate from the International Committee of the Red Cross, which has been conducting medical evacuations from Nagorno-Karabakh throughout the blockade.


Meanwhile, more than a thousand Nagorno-Karabakh residents gathered in Askeran Tuesday night to set up preemptive barricades on the road in case the peacekeepers allow the trucks to move forward.


"They are slaughtering us, and then bringing us flour," Askeran resident Alla Arzumanyan told CivilNet's Nagorno-Karabakh correspondent.


A spokesperson for Nagorno-Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan insisted Tuesday his administration had not agreed to the delivery and would not accept the aid.
Quite "interesting" behavior from Russians and Armenians if the place is in truly great humanitarian crisis. Apparently it's still not greater than their desire to end up on top in this spat.
Earlier, his foreign minister put forward a proposal to deliver humanitarian aid to Nagorno-Karabakh via Aghdam, a prospect quickly dismissed by officials in Stepanakert, who argued it would legitimize Azerbaijan's ongoing blockade of the Lachin corridor.


Russia, the only outside power with boots on the ground, floated a proposal last month at the United Nations to reopen both roads "simultaneously."
Holy fuck, when bloody Russia is the most compromising voice of the bunch...

TL;DR, for those who are still confused, Armenia is insisting on preferably free and unsupervised route with Karabakh through Lachin corridor, while Azerbaijan instead demands that any connection with Karabakh, includng aid, should be through their country and Aghdam, under their supervision, as they consider it legally their territory that they lost in the previous war and feel entitled to to get back now that they have the upper hand.
So Azerbaijan is squeezing Lachin route to pressure Armenia into opening Aghdam route, but Armenia is blocking Aghdam route as they think it would be a step towards Azerbaijan fulfilling their plans of taking over Karabakh.
Hence it's called a deadlock.

EDIT:
And breaking news, turns out that Russia is playing its own game on top of the complicated Armenia-Azerbaijan game, and Armenia is not happy because its screwing their already bad situation more.
 
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Marduk

Well-known member
Moderator
Staff Member

It would make no sense for the EU to say anything about that, as all EU members (and most of the world btw) recognize Karabakh as legally a part of Azerbaijan taken from it by force in the 90's.
What sense would it make for the EU to be mad at Azerbaijan for... planning to take land they officially recognize as rightfully belonging to Azerbaijan?
It would be like getting mad at Ukraine for wanting to take Crimea, which they recognize as part of Ukraine taken from it by force in the past.
Now if Azerbaijan takes territory not internationally recognized as part of it, that might earn them some sanctions, but they would have to do that first.
 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
Now if Azerbaijan takes territory not internationally recognized as part of it, that might earn them some sanctions, but they would have to do that first.

Now, from my understanding, there is speculation for a plan for that , both Aliyev and Erdogan have called the area of the Republic of Armenia of today as West Azerbaijan in the last 3 years.
 

TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist







Iran Observer

@IranObserver0


Raisi in a phone call with the Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan:

● Any move for geopolitical or border changes in the region is a redline

● Outside the 3+3 format, any invitation of foreigners, joint drills and suspicious visits complicate the situation

● Iran is prepared to help both sides resolve differences


Image


1:54 PM · Sep 9, 2023
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Bart

@Bart78408834

·
7h

I think this is a message for France because recently it's trying too hard to intervene in this conflict and the region.
Or maybe the America because Armenia is doing joint military training with the US

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Artsakh es Armenia

@Support_Artsakh

·
1h

Iran can't do anything to protect Armenia, thus the latter must pursue its own interests. It's even hilarious that Iran finds 85 US national guards as a threat but doesn't complain about Israel's involvement in Azerbaijan's military.





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Mohan Singh

@blsphy

·
8h

Iran, like Russia is ill prepared and will keep calling out Armenia on those 'red lines', all the while NATO keeps secretly arming Armenia till finally they are ready to bear their fangs. Iran needs to be decisive NOW not when the dogs of war are on the attack.

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George A. Hamalian

@gahamalian

·
4h

Pashinyan lacks political wisdom.

However, his first trip after the 2nd war he traveled to Iran signaling for help. Soon afterwards US promised to arm Armenia. A move Russia and Iran were slow to react. (Time is of essence. Iran should do the same for Armenia what Turkey is… Show more

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George A. Hamalian

@gahamalian

·
4h

Remember, why did the US build in ARMENIA the largest embassy in the region?

The same in Lebanon, which is another tiny country.

Those are command centers, all to defeat the enemy.



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TheReal 1908

@TheReal1908

·
9h

In other words let's see if US and NATO divide and conquer tactics can fight in Ukraine and Caucasus and Taiwan simultaneously and force there Vassals simultaneously to fight for US and Israel foreign policy without having enough weapons and men power





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gamabumda

@gamabumda

·
6h

Armenia already backstabbed iran since armenia is working with US militarly

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