Turkish-backed attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan with formal declaration of War

[TheRejectionist]

 

[TheRejectionist]

one of the comments points out India is doing this as a response of Azerbaijan supporting Pakistan in the Kashmir dispute. There are probably also other historical-diplomatic reasons why India is doing this.

Now I am unaware which those reasons are.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I don't think Armenia's chances are good. They did alright last time but actually got outplayed due to the Azeri's doing a better job of prepwork with their largescale infiltration of Special Forces prior to the conflict before systematically dismantling the Armenian entrenchments and the Armenians having no real answer to the Bayraktar drones.

They got some new stuff from India but I don't think any of it is a real game changer. Only hope is that the CSTO or Iran/India whatever can prevent the Azeris from getting too zealous in their potential conquest of Karabakh, or any attempts to infringe upon internationally recognized Armenian territory.

 

[TheRejectionist]

I don't think Armenia's chances are good. They did alright last time but actually got outplayed due to the Azeri's doing a better job of prepwork with their largescale infiltration of Special Forces prior to the conflict before systematically dismantling the Armenian entrenchments and the Armenians having no real answer to the Bayraktar drones.

They got some new stuff from India but I don't think any of it is a real game changer. Only hope is that the CSTO or Iran/India whatever can prevent the Azeris from getting too zealous in their potential conquest of Karabakh, or any attempts to infringe upon internationally recognized Armenian territory.

I hope you are wrong with this but time will tell.

It might mean something though if the Azeris are complaining to India.

Iran and Russia are the primary helpers, India has Pakistan to contend with, this despite Pakistan has VERY big issues of its own. The rogue state/Somalia with nukes might not be a meme or belong the realm of fiction as it was until 2 years ago.
Iran because even if you are against those who rules it, the Azeri has expansionist ideas to extend towards Iran, this despite the average Iranian Azeri identifies itself as Iranian first and Azeri later and because there is the passive alliance with Israel. It would be a two pigeons with one stone in a way.
Russia while it has been comfy with Aliyev I am questioning how far he can permit him to behave like this against Armenia, because if there is no Armenia that means no Russian bases in Armenia and everybody can tell as soon as part of Armenia is gone. I don't think Russia can invade Azerbaijan but wouldn't surprise if they can still pull off some surprises, especially if we talk about the oil Azerbaijan has which.
Plus, if that watermelon seller in Ankara that pretends to be a Sultan but acts like a pig want to help, the only way he can do it is by supplying through Georgia or fly whatever to Azerbaijan. Both are risky. Unless, but this is speculation, Turkey decides to attack Armenia and we know what happens next. Just like 1915.

What happens after next to Turkey...heh. Probably ain't pretty. Even if they don't properly declare war.

If it will be possible, I will try to help the Armenians here and there as much as possible and I say this with 3 Turkish exes, whom the last was the girl I talked so much about in the SIETCH and who taught me what love and being loved back is.

 

[Marduk]

Iran because even if you are against those who rules it, the Azeri has expansionist ideas to extend towards Iran, this despite the average Iranian Azeri identifies itself as Iranian first and Azeri later and because there is the passive alliance with Israel. It would be a two pigeons with one stone in a way.

I would not be so sure about that, i thing Iranian Azeris, now after the recent protests more than ever, know that demonstrating any other opinion would not end well for them, regardless if the want to or not, it's Iran we are talking about, not some cucked western country where ethnic minorities are outright encouraged to complain and then get rewarded for doing so. I would say that the worse things get in Iran and the better Azerbaijan does, the more interested they will get in the latter.

Plus, if that watermelon seller in Ankara that pretends to be a Sultan but acts like a pig want to help, the only way he can do it is by supplying through Georgia or fly whatever to Azerbaijan. Both are risky. Unless, but this is speculation, Turkey decides to attack Armenia and we know what happens next. Just like 1915.

Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Forgot this.

It is bordered by Armenia[a] to the east and north, Iran to the southwest, and Turkey[c] to the west. It is the sole autonomous republic of Azerbaijan, governed by its own elected legislature.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I hope you are wrong with this but time will tell.

It might mean something though if the Azeris are complaining to India.

Well hopefully the Armenians learned something from the last War and the ensuing border disputes but they don't seem to have many foreign suppliers. AFAIK Russians have been clandestinely supplying Armenia with arms, like through their peacekeeping forces, but India seems to be the only actual supplier of anything major. Having self propelled guns and modern MLRS systems (and SAM's and radars from India) would be better then what they previously had but I'm not sure it'll make a significant difference unless Armenia has done something else within their armed forces to really improve their effectiveness and performance.

Being outspent eight times by Azerbaijan and possessing several times the smaller population and economy and significant arms backers like Turkey and Israel is going to be hard to overcome.

 

[Marduk]

Well hopefully the Armenians learned something from the last War and the ensuing border disputes but they don't seem to have many foreign suppliers. AFAIK Russians have been clandestinely supplying Armenia with arms, like through their peacekeeping forces, but India seems to be the only actual supplier of anything major. Having self propelled guns and modern MLRS systems (and SAM's and radars from India) would be better then what they previously had but I'm not sure it'll make a significant difference unless Armenia has done something else within their armed forces to really improve their effectiveness and performance.

Being outspent eight times by Azerbaijan and possessing several times the smaller population and economy and significant arms backers like Turkey and Israel is going to be hard to overcome.

Yeah, people forget how tiny Armenia is (preventing access to decent economies of scale in most military technology categories), especially after accounting for its weak economy. It makes Czech Republic look like a major power in comparison. In the 90's war it could kinda cheat around it by using Soviet era windfall in equipment and trained personnel.
But now, Azerbaijan, while not much richer, had a big budget windfall from fossil fuels to channel into modern military hardware, while having over 3x the population.

 

[Bacle]

 

[TheRejectionist]

While I tend to have a not so bright vision of the USAF, if they intervene like in the 1997 Albanian civil unrest I will be for it IF there's actual effort.

MEANTIME :


FROM REUTERS (WEF JESTERS)

• World

Russia voices annoyance with both Armenia and Azerbaijan

Reuters
September 13, 202310:13 AM GMT+2Updated 2 hours ago

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia, April 4, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/file photo Acquire Licensing Rights
Sept 13 (Reuters) - Russia has protested to Azerbaijan over comments it made about weekend regional elections in areas of Ukraine claimed by Moscow, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.
She also accused Armenia of making "unacceptable and harmful" statements that were damaging to the prospects for a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Zakharova's comments reflected a sharp worsening of Russia's relations with both countries, which have fought two wars in the three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Distracted by the war in Ukraine, Moscow is struggling to maintain its position as the leading power and security guarantor in the region.
At the weekend, Azerbaijan released a statement on what it called "sham 'elections' in certain territories of Ukraine" - a reference to votes that Russia was holding in four partly occupied regions of Ukraine that it claimed as its own after invading its neighbour last year.

The Azerbaijani statement said the Russian vote was taking place in areas internationally recognised as part of Ukraine and was therefore legally void.
Zakharova told reporters that Russia had lodged a diplomatic protest because the comments were "unacceptable to us and do not correspond to the allied nature of relations between our countries".
"We proceed from the fact that Baku should treat the territorial integrity of our country with the same respect that Baku expects from us, when it comes to the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan," she added.

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have risen in the past week, with each side accusing the other of building up troop concentrations near their borders.
Armenia has accused Russia, which has maintained a peacekeeping force in the region since the last war in 2020, of failing to protect it against what it calls Azerbaijani aggression.
Zakharova said Armenia's recent statements had an "unfriendly character" and were damaging to the peace process over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The territory is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is mostly populated by ethnic Armenians who broke away from Baku in a war in the 1990s.
Reporting by Filipp Lebedev, writing by Mark Trevelyan Editing by Gareth Jones
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

From Reddit (need to actually say something bout that website?)

What to expect from the entry of the Russian humanitarian aid into Artsakh from Azerbaijan: analysis of the deteriorating situation

Artsakh/Karabakh | Արցախ/Ղարաբաղ
As stated earlier today, the Russian Red Cross truck entered from Akna (Aghdam) to Askeran and then Stepanakert, delivering humanitarian aid from the Russian Government. Here are a few key points regarding this:

1. This marks the first humanitarian supply to the Artsakh people since June 15, amidst the Azerbaijani genocide.
2. It can be seen as a success for the Aliyev regime, as they managed to bring the "Aghdam route" into the mediator's agenda and secure access for a truck from their side, diminishing the exclusive role of the Lachin Corridor.
3. However, it's also a failure on their part for not ensuring access for the Azerbaijani Red Crescent's "criminal" goods into Artsakh. It is important that no Azerbaijani good, person and vehicle accessed Artsakh.
4. Though it could be interpreted also as a Russian success, however, in general, it is a failure for them. It is because they couldn't ensure the opening of the Lachin Corridor as per their duties and didn't push Azerbaijan to open it at least simultaneously with the Akna route.
5. Agreeing to this deal, it appears that the Artsakh authorities aimed not only to alleviate the suffering of their people but also to place additional responsibilities on the Russian side, as guarantors of this deal, to increase Russian possible pressure on the Aliyev regime to open the Lachin Corridor.
6. Since there were prior proposals and promises by the Russian and Azerbaijani sides to open the Lachin Corridor for humanitarian supplies within 24 hours after the first access from Akna, let's see what happens by tomorrow morning. I have strong doubts that Azerbaijan will find new pretexts and conditions to continue the full blockade of the Lachin Corridor and perpetuate the suffering of our people.
7. In the event of the Azerbaijani side not keeping their agreements and promises, Russia must utilize all available resources to forcefully open the Lachin Corridor to prevent further damage to its reputation on the ground.
8. If negotiations for the use of an Azerbaijani route are not avoidable in any way, it is essential to discuss other routes as well. For instance, why not allow access to the Russian truck from Shushi instead of Akna, especially when we've had prior experiences before the blockade? It will somewhat decrease the negative impacts of the Azerbaijani route.
9. It's crucial for the Artsakh authorities to coordinate their efforts and resources with the Russian, European and American sides harmoniously and maintain transparent and honest communication with all mediators. Historically, the Azerbaijani side has effectively rejected and canceled many mediation initiatives by playing on conflicts between Russia and the West. I have a concern that they may employ this tactic again in the coming days.
10. Both the Artsakh authorities and all mediators must exercise caution and professionalism in negotiating and agreeing on all the details before taking the first step. It appears that not all details were prearranged before the Russian Red Cross truck's entry, and Azerbaijan may attempt to exploit this gap to jeopardize the Russian initiative.
11. Among the crucial details are: who, when, how and from where will access be granted; the origin and nature of delivered products; the designated routes; the control regime in the Lachin Corridor; permitted daily volumes; and the clear roles of peacekeepers and the ICRC. Negotiating, agreeing and securing guarantees for these questions are essential for ensuring somewhat stable and interim solutions regarding humanitarian supplies.
12. Failure to address these concerns and secure agreements with direct guarantees by great powers may allow Azerbaijan to progressively cross red lines and gain more than it should with such an approach.

By the way, symbolically today marks the 9th month of the genocidal blockade of the Artsakh people, who are strongly resisting to all the Azerbaijani and international criminal efforts of subjugating us to the Azerbaijani dictatorial and genocidal regime.

The responses are of course much more realistic and much less hopeful :

https://www.reddit.com/user/spetcnaz/
level 1
spetcnaz
·15 hr. ago

Yerevan
I think history, and especially recent history has shown that Russia's word and promises are less than worthless. We also know that Russia sees Artsakh as a fully integrated part of Azerbaijan. After all this to have any hopes of Russia doing something positive is insanity at best.
The current Artsakh leadership are, unfortunately Russian puppets, who will sacrifice their own homeland for their business interests in Russia and their possible future roles as Kapos of the area. Or they might just pack their shit and move to Russia when Russians inevitably hand Artsakh over.
Of course if they had any spine, they would be demanding international peacekeepers and Western sponsored negotiations with Azerbaijan. Alas, they lack that.

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level 1
Digiff
·14 hr. ago

Pushkin's golden fish tale
To your point 7 Mr Beglaryan, the issue t is that Azeris and Russian signed the allied agreement in 2022 which defines Artsakh authority as criminals and imposes on Russia to help Azeris with the territorial integrity. I believe Russians signed this because they have no plans to do anything forcefully. This has not been denounced by Yerevan and I believe same goes for Araik, no one really shouted at Moscow for signing such anti-Artsakh agreement.

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https://www.reddit.com/user/Alex_Hovhannisyan/
level 1
Alex_Hovhannisyan
·14 hr. ago

United States
Armenia is in an impossible position geopolitically and has zero leverage. It wants to align with the west, but at the same time the west does not necessarily want to stick its neck out for us and has strategic interests with Azerbaijan. So we are left with Russia, an unreliable partner hated by the world that would happily throw us under the bus if it could (but is, as of now, the only country that has been able to successfully deliver aid to Artsakh). If we fully renounce Russia now, they will never forgive us and we will be seen as ungrateful traitors—they will almost certainly punish us by greenlighting or backing an Azeri invasion.
Amid all of this, we also want Artsakh to be recognized as an independent and sovereign state by everyone else, but at the same time we ourselves are not willing (or able) to do this. We reference Kosovo as a historical example justifying Artsakh's independence, but we ourselves do not recognize Kosovo. And so the U.S. state department also does not recognize Artsakh. So what is our end goal? Our expectations seem to be unrealistic. I really don't know anymore.

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https://www.reddit.com/user/inbe5theman/
level 2
inbe5theman
·13 hr. ago

United States
Its just incompetence
Purely so. This is the best Armenians have been able to produce since the fall of the Soviets. Its going to take a long darn good while for things to improve leadership wise. Brain drain doesn't exactly mitigate this issue

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https://www.reddit.com/user/Garegin16/
level 2
Garegin16
·6 hr. ago

So US recognizes Kosovo, but not the state department?

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https://www.reddit.com/user/DeGuyWithDeOpinion/
level 1
DeGuyWithDeOpinion
·6 hr. ago

This unfortunately seems like a political win for Azerbaijan, but I do think that for the sake of the people of Artsakh this might have been the best case.
Azerbaijan, and probably Russia, will almost certainly use this to justify continued blockading of Lachin. "We can get supplies through Aghdam instead!" has been their mantra since the start of the blockade. And this will be used to keep justifying that mantra.
Unfortunately, in a life and death situation like this, where it's either starve or go through Aghdam, I can't blame anyone who chooses Aghdam. However, this absolutely must not be used as an excuse to let up on the demands for Lachin to be opened! Azerbaijan may be trying to move the goalposts, but Lachin must be opened whether they like it or not!

And I don't blame them.

And Pashinyan SEEMS to be more worried about this :

 

[Marduk]

Let's be honest here, no serious country in the whole world recognizes Artsakh as Armenian, including the anti-western ones. That's the core of the problem as far as Armenia's moves are concerned, of fucking course no one is going to move a finger to help them defend it from what everyone consider its rightful owner in the first place.
Armenia thought for decades that it doesn't matter as long as the situation on the ground is settled in their favor by military force since the 90's, but when Azerbaijan captured the might makes right argument for own benefit, suddenly they have a problem, what a surprise.

No idea how well they tried, but it seems that they have wasted decades of time they had to try somehow normalize the legal status of the territory, and made no arrangements for a plan B in case they can't just hold it by force anymore, or from the sound of it, are uninterested in any scenarios that do not include them continuing to hold onto the territory indefinitely, international recognition be damned. Come on, even Russia just got into deep shit trying to play things Russia style, who the hell thinks its smart idea to use the same playbook while being just a poor 3 million country. Seems like a very bad case of ambitions and pride exceeding the limits of means to deliver on them.

 

[Marduk]

1.Palestinians as nation - they are made in 20th century,like lithuanians,belarussians and ukrainians.
But palestinians as people - they are there from bronze age,only changed religion and culture few times.

Mythical argument, there is no evidence for this, other than you being bad at understanding genetic studies that you so proudly like to mention (genetically ME populations are interbred like fuck anyway). Nation? Again, no one can still point out what makes them a separate people from Arabs, which is the core of the problem. It's just a tactical distraction from the fact that this is a territorial conflict between Jews and Arabs, making it a conflict between Jews and supposed Palestinians with Arabs standing aside as a supposed third party.

2.Entire Armenia was once muslim vassal state,just like Georgia,till they become enslaved by Russians.To be honest - if i were armenian and face turks,i would welcome russians as liberators.
Becouse,in that particular case,they were liberators,or at least lesser evil

Classic story, just like their favorite one, commies vs nazis in WW2.

Back to the topic, seems like the humanitarian crisis is being solved, at the price of Armenians compromising about the routes.

Azerbaijan lets aid into majority-Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh – DW – 09/12/2023

Separatist authorities in Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region say supplies have arrived via Azerbaijan-controlled territory. Azerbaijan had closed a route linking the territory with Armenia.

www.dw.com

 

[Marduk]

Seems like Azerbaijan is making a move aimed at retaking Karabakh.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Seems like Armenias President has stated they won't get involved at this juncture.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Azeri artillery apparently in use all along the entire line of contact between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. UCAVs are in the air striking targets as well including fortifications and reportedly air defense and artillery systems including an alleged Tor Air Defense system.

France has denounced Azeri aggression in Nagorno-Karabakh and called a meeting of the UN Security Council.

The government of Nagorno-Karabakh has called for a cease fire but apparently the Azeris have stated they will follow through with this operation until its end unless the Armenians surrender.

Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions updates: Azeri attack in Nagorno-Karabakh

All the updates as they happened on September 19.

www.aljazeera.com

France calls for urgent meeting of UN Security Council over Azerbaijan’s military aggression against Nagorno Karabakh

France has strongly condemned Azerbaijan’s military operations in Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh with the use of heavy weapons ...

news.am

Some reporters stating that the Azeris opening the road to Armenia now after blockading it for months is a pretty clear indication that they are planning to ethnically cleanse the region by giving the Armenians in the region the opportunity to flee after almost being blockaded for a year and now being brought under artillery bombardment. Civilian casualties, including children, have been reported at the hospital at Stepanakert.

Thread by @ThomasVLinge on Thread Reader App

@ThomasVLinge: #NagornoKarabakh BREAKING: Azerbaijani military forces have launched an artillery assault on the city of #Stepanakert. #NagornoKarabakh: the sounds of artillery fire and air raid siren s fill the air ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[TheRejectionist]

This hàppens às there àre protests in Yerevàn.

Well, let's see how it goes.

 

[TheRejectionist]

This hàppens às there àre protests in Yerevàn.

Well, let's see how it goes.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I'm not seeing a transition in power that could occur quick enough to bring Armenia proper into the conflict, certainly not in a short time frame. Nagorno-Karabakh is even smaller now and the power imbalance is dramatic between the NKR and the Azeri Armed Forces.

I'm hoping at the very least that the Azeris stop casually executing and massacring prisoners and intentionally targeting civilians during their (re)conquest of territory that while internationally recognized as Azeri, seemed to of been largely populated by Armenians in this respect for a few generations at least.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

As I understand even if Armenia got involved it’s quite a mismatch. The Azeri economy is about three times the size of their’s.

 

[Bacle]

Looks like it was Medvedev who gave the green light for the Azeri's to begin this again.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Yeah right. More like an excuse to cover for the failure of Russian peackeeepers to enforce their influence in the region. Azerbaijan has been sending Ukraine far more humanitarian aid and far more lethal aid to Ukraine while also working to profit themselves off of Russian sanctions with European countries and companies.

Russia still has a backlog of billions in arms that Armenia was or going to pay for for IIRC that's been going on for years now but for some reason Russia hasn't been able to export much of it. Don't quote me on it though.