Navarro
Well-known member
If there's a parallel to the Punic Wars in this accounting, it would be the Cold War.
History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History
- Thread starter FriedCFour
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If there's a parallel to the Punic Wars in this accounting, it would be the Cold War.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
If we run with what I outlined above, it might be suggested that Hitler was a particularly nasty counterpart to Philippos V of Macedon, and Stalin was analogous to Antiokhos III of the Seleukid Empire. The Cold War is then analogous to a phase of the Roman-Persian rivalry. (Which is not a counterpart to USA v. Russia, but to West v. East. That is: the struggle with China is also part of this analogy.)
Which makes Japan into Carthage, I guess -- just in the Second Punic War, rather than the third. I agree that it doesn't quite fit. As I said: this stuff isn't exact. We're looking at historical trends here, rather than fixed points.
Navarro
Well-known member
Do you have a link?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Expanding on this a bit (because I'm the sort of person who always has more to say, go figure):
The Romans took the Western, Hellenised bits of the Seleukid Empire, and the final border ended up further East. Now, I don't give Russia post-Putin very good odds for stable governance. I expect the country to fall apart. (Few people realise just how close it came to that, in the early '90s.) So I would certainly entertain the possibility that European Russia ends up in the "Western" sphere, while everything beyond the Urals is beyond the Empire's reach.
The early Empire is also a time of religious revival -- state-backed. After an increasingly un-traditional period has ended in carnage, people really do return to tradition. They do invent some of those "old tradition", of course. The government actively sponsors it. So in "our" time (really our grandchilden's time), I would not at all be surpised if the really conservative Catholic, Protestant and Eastern Orthodox Christians figure out that they have more in common with each other than they do with any progressive club. Oikoumene? Oikoumene. "One God. One Church. One Emperor."
And people think religion is dead...
Navarro
Well-known member
We're already seeing this begin to happen, which might suggest we're further along the path to Caesar than you thought ... Might we already be at Marius and Sulla?
D
Deleted member 88
Guest
Skallagrim a few questions
What will the fate of Israel, the Islamic World and Africa look like in your general estimation?
Will the Chinese bring the muse of civilization back to the East? What of India?
What will the fate of Israel, the Islamic World and Africa look like in your general estimation?
Will the Chinese bring the muse of civilization back to the East? What of India?
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
I think this vid of Isaac Arthur based on the concept of Isaac Asimov maybe relevant
I’ll say this, the settlers and their descendents from Robots/Galactic Empire/Foundation were far from perfect
They had outright warlordism, feudalism, slavery and serfdom and used unhealthy and dangerous manual labor after they forgot the use of robots. Possibly by design.
The main thing they had over the Spacers was that they actually reproduced a lot even if there were possibilities of genetic defects and not everybody could easily afford or actually bother with raising a kid
Navarro
Well-known member
The Middle East becomes irrelevant on the world stage as power generation technology eventually moves past oil.
The CCP will eventually fall and another 'dynasty' will eventually rise.
Nope.It was founded by Jesus,and later become named as romans - when Byzantium decided to have its own church,i think.
D
Deleted member 88
Guest
The CCP has only been around for about eighty years. So long as the army remains loyal and the citizenry does not rise up, it could last another century or two.
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
Also, they solve their population problem with say, artificial wombs
Doomsought
Well-known member
With a tyrany, things we normally think are important for a functioning civilization, such as food, are far less important than the ability to just kill anyone who rebels and make an example of their families.
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
It helps to lack an enemy, particularly an enemy who would actually fight you
If it weren’t for say, nukes and maybe secret bioweapons and the infiltrators or useful idiots, they would have to deal with an enemy without mercy
Relying on your enemy being merciful as you stab their faces and provoke them is dangerous
Skallagrim
Well-known member
I hesitate to think that we are "ahead of schedule". People are inclined to think this; it's rarely true. This doesn't man it can't be true, of course. But for one thing, I'm not seeing proscription lists being drawn up. Just mob violence. That's a pretty solid indicator of 'when' you're at, roughly speaking.
-- Israel has not yet existed as long, presently, as the Kingdom of Jerusalem. Whether it is here to stay remains to be seen. They are certainly aware of it, though, and have prepared for precisely this reality. That's a healthy sign, usually.
-- The Islamic world is a tricky thing to place for a lot of people. I've thought about this for a long time, and my personal suspicion is that the Islamic culture (which actually precedes the West, mind you; Mohammed lived before Charlemagne) has or had a stagnation problem. Their counterpart to the Reformation was delayed, and when it did take place, it suffered from the fact that Western powers were throwing their weight around. To clarify: I think that Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab was an Islamic version of someone like John Calvin. But they never got to fight their Thirty Years' War properly, because some jerks (that's us!) started bossing everybody around.
-- The above makes prognostication difficult, as it pertains to Islam specifically. I agree with @Navarro that the "oil states" are screwed in the long term. There is an alternative scenario to what I have previously outlined for the West, though. Follows the exact same pattern, but is predicated on the idea that America self-immolates. If that happens, it is possible for Islam to take over Europe, and to be the highly traditional religion that establishes order. For that to work, though, Islam has to become fairly European. It will basically do what Christianity did previously: fade out of the East, and adapt to (and dominate) the West. This is a long-shot scenario, though. It's more probable that Islam is pretty screwed in the long term. (Which René Guenon would find regrettable, because the long-shot scenario would validate exactly what he was suggesting.)
-- Africa has seen a population explosion. Why? To put it bluntly: Western humanitarian aid. Constant aid. Believe me, I've been there, right in the middle of that process. If (or rather: when) the West runs into severe problems, and that aid ceases... then (I shit you not) two-thirds of the population of sub-Saharan Africa will die. It's going to be a damned nightmare. Maybe, if they started easing the whole continent off foreign aid right now, a lot of people could be saved. But that's not happening, I fear.
-- China will be China, as it has always been. The present is just an interregnum. I would not be at all surprised to find a future where they are the East to our West. Currently, their much-talked-about economy is mostly a mirage. Critics of the "China-as-a-superpower" narrative rightly point that out. But here's the thing: the Western economy is also a mirage. And it's not about the economy. In the end, it's about demographics. China has those. And as long as it does... there will be a China, and (barring brief periods) it will be great and powerful. @Navarro is right about that, too. (But you, @Lord Invictus, are right about the potential time table! Remember: two centuries is but a short while, compared to the great stretch of history.)
D
Deleted member 88
Guest
And the fate of global Jewry as a whole?
Parts of the Islamic world are secularizing, particularly Iran. What that means is hard to say, but I think Islam is in for some more times of conflict.
Also what about India?
LifeisTiresome
Well-known member
Didn't the Settlers eventually colonize the galaxy while the spacers died out?
LifeisTiresome
Well-known member
Lol, look at this from tvtropes:
@Skallagrim
Any relation to Skallagrim of youtube fame?
Also, what do you think of the birthrate situation facing the West?
- Crapsaccharine World: Previous books have held up Aurora as a utopian society emblematic of the "superior" Spacer culture. After a relatively brief look on Lije's part demonstrates certainaspects of that culture, he (and likely the reader) comes to the conclusion that this is so much Cultural Posturing and hogwash. It is true that the Spacers' standard of living is much higher than Earth's, but apart from the lack of poverty, there is no real evidence that the Spacers are any happier for it.
@Skallagrim
Any relation to Skallagrim of youtube fame?
Also, what do you think of the birthrate situation facing the West?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
The Jewish people have existed for a very long time. I imagine that they'll continue to exist for a very long time. (An inverse of the Israeli question: that is recent, and may therefore be brief. But that which is proven usually remains proven.)
Spengler was suspiciously quiet about India, and I think I know the reason. It doesn't fit his typical model. My own interpretation is that India represents a culture when the Alexander/Napoleon type actually won. In this case, the man was an actual contempory of Alexander: Chandragupta Maurya. The problem this presents is that I don't know what effects that has. I can describe what happened, but not what will happen. Nothing like it has occurred in any other high culture.
Chandragupta was a badass, I can tell you that. And Ashoka was a titan. A culture that can produce men of that calibre must never be discounted.
None, except we bear the same name and are both interested in history and swordplay.
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
Yup, but as I’ve pointed out they were also all very flawed people who committed terrible crimes against one another and in the earlier times they had no problem with destroying local alien environments to suit their needs whilst the Spacers took things slow and moderated things to avoid stuff like that
And yeah, not really happy, hell they were also so obsessed with social distancing and staying at home that actually moving outside of their planet was novel
Still, truly had a higher standard of living that wasn’t gonna fail badly, main threat to their existence being aliens that would take advantage of the lack of human settlement and lack of ambition to build more and more powerful weapons in larger quantity to win
They were pretty anti-Settler, less because Settlers would be unpleasant and do crimes, they don’t even share the same planets and more because they were being snobs and felt a sort of guilt-pride complex towards the Earth they imprisoned
LifeisTiresome
Well-known member
Carl, having high standard of living doesn't mean happiness. Current modernity proves that. And yes, they were going to fail as they didn't reproduce or do anything but decadence and thus aliens could easily crush them.
They are very similar to the liberals and SJWs, very quick to call out people for shit they did but are also doing it themselves.