LifeisTiresome
Well-known member
Gotcha. And anyway, I suspect even if you were him, you wouldn't admit it for safety sake.
So, about the birthrate question?
History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History
- Thread starter FriedCFour
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So, about the birthrate question?
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Lots of the more traditional groups in the West (basically: very religious people) are seeing an end to decline in birth-rate, edging over to a return in growth. Having fewer and fewer kids seems tied to secular "modernism". The same people who insist their paradigm is the future. Well, for that to work, they'd have to inherit the earth. Not happening.
Western Europe has a fairly pressing issue: the non-Western immigrants are reproducing very rapidly, and not assimilating rapidly at all. On the other hand, birth rates in the countries said immigrants are coming from are visibly going down. So, given enough time, that's a self-correcting issue. (Spoiler: that's true about every issue.) Whether enough time is available is another matter. This one of the reasons why a "European Islam" scenario is possible.
But is it the most probable outcome? No. More plausible is a period of increasing social and economic tension and hardship, as the secular modernists die out (and their numerically diminishing offspring radicalises further and goes -- quite literally -- collectively mad). Meanwhile, the more reactionary elements of the autochtonous populace bounce back demographically, but are still in a pickle as the sustantial non-Western, non-assimilated population (primarily Muslim) sees its demographic influx (migration) dry up to a trickle, and finds its expectations of certain dominance in doubt. (Note: they really are very confident of it presently. Too confident.)
So that'll be a shitfight. As I previously mentioned, the most likely scenario I can outline sees Americans and Eastern Europeans working together to clean up the mess and impose order of a kind. (Translation: accept Jesus into your heart and render unto Caesar what is Caesar's... or get a bullet. Hey, I didn't say it would be pleasant.)
One of the reasons why I see America doing much better than Western Europe is that America is going through its ethno-cultural strife right now. At a later stage, the ethnic bit will be resolved sufficiently. Blacks and Hispanics who get screwed over by the elite (which means: damn near all of them) will side with the Populares. If all of them were of a non-Western religion, it would be another story. But they're not. At the end of the day, they side with Christ against the Mammon. And that's the main thing.
(I stress again: in the much less probable event that America self-destructs during its own time of troubles, things shift. Funny story: then it's the Muslims who slay the Mammon. People who talk about "late-stage capitalism" aren't technically wrong. They just don't grasp the context, usually. One should really say: late-stage modernity.)
D
Deleted member 88
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This assumes the lower classes won’t be bought off by Mammon with thirty pieces of silver for the Optimates to enshrine their rule through means sociological or technological indefinitely.
If we wanted to put on our cultural Marxist hats, we could argue this is precisely what modern society is designed to do. Keep the lower classes entertained and comfortable and society in a state of stasis indefinitely.
If we wanted to put on our cultural Marxist hats, we could argue this is precisely what modern society is designed to do. Keep the lower classes entertained and comfortable and society in a state of stasis indefinitely.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
No, I mentioned that stage. That's in the 2060s. They will definitely try it. It will definitely not work. You can't pay people off with Zimbabwean dollars, and that's where we're going.
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Deleted member 88
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But you can use the most advanced forms of social engineering, propaganda, indoctrination and manipulation that have two centuries of science behind them to maintain the social order at all costs.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
That's already happening, and it's going to get way more elaborate. For sure.
But that's why it's all, ah, "taking so long". And why my outline isn't much more contracted. Spengler thought Caesar might actually be here by now! But no. It always takes longer than you think. And what you are describing is part of the reason for that.
D
Deleted member 88
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I’m somewhat pessimistic that the proles will ever awaken en masse. So long as they have their base distractions and the sophistication of the propaganda to manipulate them grows ever deeper and more elaborate. We could be looking at the rule of the Populares indefinitely.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Nothing under heaven is indefinite.
A key thing to remember is that the current economy, and its supposed affluence, is one very big soap bubble. It is straining. It is under stress. And the chosen way to keep it going is to rack up the debt, devaluate the currency, and promise people free stuff (paid for by that increasingly worthless currency). That recipe has never, once, in all of recorded history, worked out in the long term. The reasons why it always fails are obvious, and they are intrinsic. This current situation is not going to be the magical exception.
People talk about the Chinese system (social credit). They ignore that what's happening in China works for one reason: today is better than ten years ago, which was better than ten years before that, which was better than.... et cetera. People remember how shitty it was not-that-long-ago, so they'll accept quite a lot as long as there is real growth, and they have reason to believe their kids will have better jobs and lives than they do now. In the West, that trend is already reversed. Things are getting worse. So social reactions to the thumb-screws will not be the same. It all depends on how much you have to lose. Literally the reason why you correctly argue that China's present regime may last for some time: the average Chinese person has more to lose every year. The average Westerner has less to lose every year.
People also talk about about the masses being made dependent on a basic income. They ignore that a basic income is an ass-backward idea that is financially impossible. Do the math. You're either looking at something that requires full communism and taxes in the region of 120% GDP (literally impossible), or you'll retain a half-way functional economy but the basic income is a pittance that's just enough to starve on. (Possible solution to the money deficit for a 'high' basic income: print money like it's going out of style. Result: worthless money, so same outcome as the pittance. You think they won't be stupid enough to try that? I remind you that Paul Krugman exists and got a Nobel Prize. They are that stupid.)
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Deleted member 88
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What makes you think the elites of Europe, China and the US won’t come to some sort of accord and implement a globalist technocratic communism?
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
When I think about it, this is sounding like the backstories of some Libertarian SciFi that have the plot of “Earth is fucked, let’s leave”
With the side effect that Earth is gonna come for them at some point, both because they need a scapegoat and because they will be able to get lots of tax money from these new nations
Skallagrim
Well-known member
1. I don't think their mutual trust is sufficiently developed, nor do I believe that it will develop. (In fact, I expect increasing distrust.)
2. I don't think their long-term interests converge sufficiently to make that attractive. Particularly not to the Chinese. (Nor to, say, India.)
3. Supposing that they do try it, it will be a last-ditch effort; one that (per what I said above) I would expect to involve huge concessions from the West to the East, which will, at that stage, only inflame social tensions to a point of ignition.
4. Still supposing that they try it, things will only get worse. Is there something about the words "globalist technocratic communism" than inspires confidence in you? It would be an utter shitshow!
The latter is accurate, because if the rulers of Earth implemented something that stupid, they'd be so screwed that a bunch of hard-scrabble settlers desperately trying to dig out a living in a place without an atmosphere would literally be more secure. (Financially and otherwise.)
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Deleted member 88
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The point of such an accord and system would be a final effort to maintain the social order and keep the masses from their gates, hopefully indefinitely. Even if it achieved nothing else.
Navarro
Well-known member
Which goes to think, how will space colonisation affect this cycle?
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
They will do this under the guise of “liberating” the settlers from non existent “robber barons” and say they’ll be there to “help” and “advise” said settlers
They can’t allow them to become a symbol or example that goes against their paradigm
Failing an invasion, they’ll probably try sending over their own population who won’t assimilate and will possibly try forcing the locals to do stuff for them
Would be even worse if they were Space Amish but more advanced
Skallagrim
Well-known member
I mentioned why the Chinese would not need it. It's a lot of effort, for no gain. If the West implodes and then gets reborn as an Empire -- so much the better. Much more orderly than a podwer-keg attached to the ass-end of your continent. (Because that's how they see it, naturally.)
The "indefinitely" part is indeed very "hopefully". I re-iterate: the West might try it, and I see no scenarios where it works. It may be attempted, sure. But it'll just be a death rattle.
Will it? I don't expect space colonisation to happen quickly. (They expected it quickly six decades ago. See how that turned out.) It's not inconceivable that if a Universal Empire is established, it might undertake such efforts during its Principate. Why not? At some point, well-contained nuclear fusion is going to be hammered out, and once you have that, you have a torch-ship.
Problem: space is really hostile. Terraforming takes... long. Very long. As in: five thousand years is nothing. That kind of long. So we can forget about that for the time being. So if colonies are set up, they're going to be little bubbles in the dark. Once the Empire goes into terminal decline... expect those colonies to be left to die.
But maybe there are habitable worlds, out of our present reach (and sight), but to be discovered in time? It's possible.
Now there's a sci-fi story. Empire arises. Empire discovers various potentially inabitable worlds many light-years away. Empire sends out fusion-powered generation ships (that reach, say, a speed of .25 c -- on average, naturally, since the ship would accelerate half the journey and decelerate the other half). Decades-to-a-century-and-change later, they get there. They establish colonies. Contact with Earth is, naturally, almost or entirely nil. Back home, the Empire declines and dies. The colonies are forgotten. Technology is hard to lose entirely, so the next civilisational cycle has interstellar capabilities much earlier on. They start exploring. And they find the descendants of those initial colonists. They feel like they've stumbled into one of those old Trek episodes where Kirk discovers a colony of Romans or whatnot.
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
@Skallagrim
And even if FTL and FTL Communications and fast/easy arcologies and terraforming were possible
I think there would be people purposely NOT contacting the homeworld
And even if FTL and FTL Communications and fast/easy arcologies and terraforming were possible
I think there would be people purposely NOT contacting the homeworld
Skallagrim
Well-known member
They would be right not to. Leto II has foreseen it. We must scatter. This is the true Golden Path.
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
They would be right not to. Leto II has foreseen it. We must scatter. This is the true Golden Path.
Even Isaac Asimov seems to agree with it....right up until he says a new Galactic Empire has to be made that’s “federalized”
Skallagrim
Well-known member
To quote Herbert on that particular misconception:
"And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning That path leads ever down into stagnation."
CarlManvers2019
Writers Blocked Douchebag
Yeah, though Asimov sorta had it that the Spacers had to become irrelevant because they were the ones who were stagnant or really slow in everything
I remember a short story about how Earth was divided into multiple star nations and was gonna have to deal with an invasion by a powerful alien force that was united
The MC was a temporary terrorist complaining about how un-unified humanity was and got arrested, later the divided human race managed to defeat the aliens surprisingly easily in part due to their divisive individuality or such
Then the MC was told they would now unify or federalize and he went hip hip hooray!!!
Forgot that Isaac Asimov short story, there are so many he wrote