History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History

Basic social hierarchy, with some very superficial variations, and an economy that is based on the distributen of scarce means in a way that is deemed equitable.
The "scarce means" aren't a constant, though. The Industrial Revolution fundamentally altered the nature of scarcity by shifting it to scarcity of labor instead of scarcity of land. The recent push for automation is moving scarcity to be purely about raw materials, which was not historically the case. Modern economies can't do actual conquest. Even early industrialization saw the premise of empires to be disproven with colonies proving virtually impossible to be profitable. Shifting from land-based scarcity to resource-based, literal raw materials, is a fundamental change of paradigm.

The basic nature of the means has changed. The basic nature of the hierarchies aren't compatible anymore. The Romans had the specific notion of a King as something to avoid, while the modern West has an aversion to all forms of hard government. Even the nonsense Europe is getting into is fundamentally predicated on consent of the governed, and we've seen that it is not a logistical possibility to govern the unwilling anymore.

It takes extremely small portions of a population in active revolt, in modern times, to utterly cripple a state. It's been said repeatedly that a hundred assholes with molitovs and ARs could doom basically any major city, because it takes mere hours to drive them to massive chaos with a power outage. And the bar for having literal millions of discontents is fractional percentages.
 
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@Skallagrim your thoughts on the above.
You raise very good points.

Let me begin by saying that you are definitely correct to say -- indeed, only a fool could dispute it -- that there are overlapping and interacting spheres within our Hochkultur, which we so often (and so inexactly) refer to as "The West". Likewise, that this term has various meanings in various contexts. To some extent, this is true of every High Culture. So we may at last console ourselves by saying that these confusions are not unique to us.

I do not believe that, in their most "honest" meanings, the terms "Christendom" and "the West" are really different concepts. I do believe that you can assign meanings to them, and that means have been assigned to them, that do make them into different concepts.

My own thoughts may be summarised as follows (and note that this is by default a simplification): our High Culture is properly called "Christendom", and this means "the whole of Christian culture". What is now called "the West" is, most generally, a secularised way of saying the same thing.

Now, I stressed culture. I did that for a reason. It's not just about the religion. The religion is central to our culture; its formative core, whose light informs all aspects. But the culture is formed around the religion. It extends beyond it; it includes more than just the religion in its most narrow sense. And those who convert to the religion without embracing the culture are part of Christianity, but not of Christendom.

This brings us to the notion of "where white people live". That is not entirely true, but there really is a very great correlation. The reason being that white people come from Europe, which is where our culture originated. They carried it with them. Often without really thinking about it. Even if and when they stopped being avidly or even actively religious, the culture persisted. So, generally speaking, Christendom really is "wherever white people live". But it's not only where white people live. Wherever someone of another background has truly embraced the Christian (that is: "Western") culture, Christendom exists.

That happens to correspond precisely to what I believe "The West" to be.

However, "The West" is a very inexact term, which has also been used historically to exclude people who are most assuredly part of Christendom (but who just happened to be under an anti-Christian yoke at the time). For that reason, een though "The West" is useful as short-hand, I usually insist that "Christendom" is by far the more accurate name to define the same idea.

You mention that Christendom arguably doesn't exist, but I must disagree: it exists, but is not presently recognised by many.
In addition, you mention it always having been more of an ideal than anything. With that, I certainly agree. But every culture is, in itself and all its immaterial aspects, purely an idea. The Mandate of Heaven is also "just" an idea. That does not make it unimportant, nor does it make it less than real. Ideas are very real.

In any event, the above outlines what "Christendom" (and thus, "The West") means to me. It means Europe and the countries inhabited by people of European descent, to the extent that they are inhabited by said people and by non-European people who have embraced the Christian/Western culture. It does not include those segments of any population, eithin in Europe itself or elsewhere, who reject that culture.

(We should note, in this context, that a lot of white people who claim to hate "the West" and/or "Christianity" have no idea at all how very Christian and Western they are, implicitly, without even knowing it.)

This means that our High Culture includes the majority of African-Americans in the USA, for instance, but does not include Haiti or Ethiopia. It includes Russia, but not Turkey. It includes Armenia, but not the bulk of the banlieues outside Paris. It includes major parts of Latin America, but not all of it. (Particularly, there are regions inhabited by various Native American people, who do not feel themselves to be part of our culture at all -- which means they aren't.) It includes a dwindling part of South Africa, whereas the bulk of that country now identifies with an explicitly African loyalty, which is not part of our culture at all. Japan, South Korea and Israel are not part of our High Culture. They are themselves, and to reduce them to part of us is untenable.

I think that should be an adequate definition of terms.

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The "scarce means" aren't a constant, though. The Industrial Revolution fundamentally altered the nature of scarcity by shifting it to scarcity of labor instead of scarcity of land. The recent push for automation is moving scarcity to be purely about raw materials, which was not historically the case. Modern economies can't do actual conquest. Even early industrialization saw the premise of empires to be disproven with colonies proving virtually impossible to be profitable.

The basic nature of the means has changed. The basic nature of the hierarchies aren't compatible anymore. The Romans had the specific notion of a King as something to avoid, while the modern West has an aversion to all forms of hard government. Even the nonsense Europe is getting into is fundamentally predicated on consent of the governed, and we've seen that it is not a logistical possibility to govern the unwilling anymore.

It takes extremely small portions of a population in active revolt, in modern times, to utterly cripple a state. It's been said repeatedly that a hundred assholes with molitovs and ARs could doom basically any major city, because it takes mere hours to drive them to massive chaos with a power outage. And the bar for having literal millions of discontents is fractional percentages.
You point out why everything is supposedly different and changed... and then provide arguments that point towards the same course of events that I'm pointing towards.

But then, there is also the fact that you're not quite correct in your assertions. Modernity has an obsession with an appeal to the supposed will of the masses. You draw a conclusion from that, which is not ultimately supported. Because it's not new. Rome also had that obsession, and their street-fights, by this stage, were a lot messier than ours. The fact that there is fragility in the system is countered by the fact that (unlike most people back then) the vast majority people today has quite a bit to lose. The means of individuals to undertake disruptive measures are countered by the similarly expanded means at the state's avail. These things balance out.

Eventually, it will get really bad. And the whole edifice will collapse. And you are pointing out reasons why that is so. Alright. We seem to be in agreement on that. So much the better. It's going to be a while, though. Look at every riot, and all the pathetic looting of all the predictable stores. It's little more than some discontent. When they start skinning people alive and crucifying them, things will actually be serious. Until then... early days still.

Oh, and once things really get bad -- then we'll see just how logistically possible it still is to govern the unwilling. Long-term: not possible. Sure. But once the gloves come off, when the people in charge also have nothing left to lose (except their power)... ha! They'll show us just how hard their government can be.
 
One thing I do wonder is why there wasn’t the cycle of unification, division, reunification as happened in Imperial China.

Was it European ethnic diversity? Or it’s geography? Was it because Europe had competing poles of political power?

India, the Islamic World and China all went through periods of prolonged strife and division. But reunited, or at least attempts were made.

(You could argue the past century of the Middle East has been at attempt find some basis on which to reunite it after the collapse of the Ottomans).

China used to be more multipolar. But it grew and grew despite civil wars, barbarian invasions and anarchy.

What makes the west and China different?


China is culturally unified. India is culturally unified.

Rome and America are not. They used to be.

Rome once was culturally unified. While it was a kingdom and during the early period of the Republic, the people shared the same values and beliefs. But then Rome became larger and started encompassing a great number of not insignificant cultures, and it became culturally divided. For instance, the Israelites and the Gauls did not share Roman values or beliefs, which begins leading to unrest and competition between "citizens" and mistrust. These differences were irreconcilable. The Romans tried to use imperialism to force Roman culture upon these groups, but they failed. Eventually when the empire collapsed, these cultures ended up trying to reassert themselves as their own countries.

America was once culturally unified. Everyone was mostly British, with some Germans and Swedes and Irish and Scotts and Dutch here and there, but the culture was overall European and everyone believed in the Christian God. During the wars with Mexico, the US absorbed a rather sizeable Spanish/Mexican culture, but they still believed in the Christian God and shared European values so they were compatible. But then you start getting into the 20th century and you have huge waves of immigrants who do not share European values or Christianity. Furthermore, Christianity began to fade. Fast forward to 2020 and the US is culturally divided, with many different cultures that have different values, and many different religions. You read on social media about a woman complaining that someone wrote a Bible verse on the sidewalk in front of their house. In a country like Saudi Arabia, literally no one would complain about a verse from the Quran being written on the ground in front of somebody's house, because the culture is completely unified. Today in the US, you have families living as next door neighbors and they have completely different perspectives that are unreconcilable.

See also how the British tried to use imperialism to dominate the Irish and the Scotts, even committing genocide and deporting them, and failed, and hundreds of years later a strong sense Irish and Scottish unity still exists. Or the persistence of the Scottish and Irish indepence movements. If the UK were culturally unified with Europe, then Brexit wouldn't have been so popular. People clearly want to rule over themselves, be ruled over by people who share their own values, not by foreigners who have different values and beliefs.

Republics work when you have a culturally unified group of people. Otherwise it's just people voting against people who are not a part of their group. Culturally unified countries like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea will endure (unless they get annexed by some bigger fish). For cultural divided countries, like the US, I think it is inevitable that they will balkanize. The only question is whether or not it will be peaceful or violent. God forbid anything like the Yugoslav wars happen again.
 
Republics work when you have a culturally unified group of people. Otherwise it's just people voting against people who are not a part of their group.
I absolutely agree. Multiculturalism is a lie.
I agree that republics only function in culturally homogeneous societies. Do note that empires don't have that problem -- because the imperial ethos is different from the national ethos. A republic must by default be national. I would go so far as to say that republics, inherently, cannot even function if they become too "oversized". They require unity of the citizenry, or they are doomed. In fact, although the reduced reliance on "the will of the people" somewhat contains the factor, most national monarchies face similar limits. Absorb too much that is "foreign", and the original identity dilutes.

An empire, by contrast, is almost invariably multi-national, and does indeed encompass all sorts of different groups. It is not their "sameness" that binds them together, but a shared loyalty to (and stake in) the imperial idea and its governing structures. This is why Rome, upon gaining hegemony and absorbing other peoples, could no longer be a republic and had to become an empire. It is why China, when one of the warring states subdued all others (and note that back then, they internal cultures were notably different!) could not just be ruled as a national kingdom with loads of vassals, but had to become an empire.

Quo vadis, America? The answer is obvious. All roads lead to it.


P.S. -- China is unified now because of its geography. Central plain surrounded by natural barriers. Excellent for fostering slowly-growing unity. European geography didn't provide the same advantages, so when Rome fell apart, it didn't fall back together. Ancient Egypt, centred on the Nile, did fall back together repeatedly. Go figure. But now look back to America. That Mississippi basin looks a lot like a natural heartland to me. Access to the sea, cold and sparsely populated land to the North, Rockies to the West, Appalachians to the East.

If America forms an empire and unites "the West" (like Qin united China and Rome united the Mediterranean), then that Empire will inevitably fall apart somewhere down the line. When that happens, everything across the sea will be lost, at least for some time. But unlike post-Roman Europe, a post-imperial North America has geography that encourages it to re-unify. Now that offers up some long term perspectives, doesn't it?
 
The important question is who is doing the reunifying.
It'll be very important when it happens. To us, it's almost meaningless. The people alive then (and if we emulate Chinese or Egyptian chronology, "then" means "circa AD 3000") will be so different from us, as far as their world-views in concerned, that it may be outright impossible for us to discern who the desirable candidate might be. (If we could look into the future and observe it all, I mean.)

Who was the right candidate to re-unite China in AD 581? The one who managed to do it.
 
Could the Roman Empire have transitioned to the Nation stated model and if so, how?

I could only see it being done via sufficient protection of Italia and its nearby islands, coupled with investment in agricultural development so the fledgling nation of the Western Romans could feed itself, as a start. Also, and this would make it really difficult, you've got to rein in slavery. It's disenfranchising too many people whilst putting them on the doll and thus applying a dreadful strain to your economy.

Maybe that, plus a reversion to Principate methods of governance instead of the Dominate, could work. I cannot understate the problems the Western Empire faced in its final years. In the East, it's a different story. As Skallagrim pointed out, they could have gone full blown reborn Greek despot kingdom and that was achievable.
 
I could only see it being done via sufficient protection of Italia and its nearby islands, coupled with investment in agricultural development so the fledgling nation of the Western Romans could feed itself, as a start. Also, and this would make it really difficult, you've got to rein in slavery. It's disenfranchising too many people whilst putting them on the doll and thus applying a dreadful strain to your economy.
So what you mean is that for Roman Empire to turn into nation state, they would have to basically let all their territories except for Italy go?
 
Could the Roman Empire have transitioned to the Nation stated model and if so, how?
The Empire? Theoretically, but in practice it was possible only after the fall. Had things gone otherwise, one of the latter-day pseudo-barbarian rulers could have set up a "Roman Kingdom" after basically everything but Italy was lost. In fact, although less easy, it would have been possible to keep the highly Romanised surrounding regions. Depending on the time-frame, this would maximally have been Italy, Iberia, Southern *France (the North was well and truly lost) and North Africa (from Gibraltar to modern-day Tunisia).

In the East, the Byzantines could have set up shop as a Greek Kingdom, abandoning all Imperial pretensions -- as @Lord Sovereign already mentioned. That, too, would have been a reversion to the "national".

So what you mean is that for Roman Empire to turn into nation state, they would have to basically let all their territories except for Italy go?
Yes. And as far as the Republic is concerned: Cato the Elder pretty much suggested doing this. Withdraw from all or most foreign holdings, throw out foreigners from Italy, make Rome once more truly Roman. Back to the Old Republic!

Nobody listened.
 
So what you mean is that for Roman Empire to turn into nation state, they would have to basically let all their territories except for Italy go?

If we're talking late 4th/early 5th century, then yes. The economy was buckling, the army was too thinly stretched, it was just becoming less and less feasible to hold on to Rome's territories. That aside, the Empire was a little too "multi-cultural" in some cases to become a nation. Perhaps if they'd Romanised the entire Empire, then a "super state" of sorts could have been built from that.

In order for the nation of the Romans to live, the Empire had to die. Only then could you truly restore a united sense of "Romanitas" among the people. Indeed, if the Romans had managed this, whilst diminished, they'd have dominated the Dark Ages.

Though your posts here show that even Nation states aren't stable as they are still trapped in the cycle.

Much stabler than empires though. Also I think with some nations, they are so old with their identity so entrenched, they may not be very predisposed to the rule of the Emperor of the West. If they are in the sweet spot of martially capable enough to be too much trouble but not enough to be a real threat, the empire leaves them alone for the most part.

In my view, history rhymes more than repeats.
 
I see. Thanks for the answer. Though your posts here show that even Nation states aren't stable as they are still trapped in the cycle.
Nothing is really stable, in this context. Nothing lasts forever in an unchanging form. Nations do tend to be long-lasting, though, with lots of continuity. Witness that, regardless of being under Roman rule for ages, and then claiming to be the heirs to Rome for ages, and then being under Turkish rule for ages, the Greeks are still here.

Of course they're not the same as they were. But there is continuity there. Which means that they've gone through the bulk of two civilisational cycles now.

In my view, history rhymes more than repeats.
I agree. Possibly, I am a bit more insistent upon the nature of the rhyming scheme. But nevertheless: I very much agree.
 
Nothing is really stable, in this context. Nothing lasts forever in an unchanging form. Nations do tend to be long-lasting, though, with lots of continuity. Witness that, regardless of being under Roman rule for ages, and then claiming to be the heirs to Rome for ages, and then being under Turkish rule for ages, the Greeks are still here.

Of course they're not the same as they were. But there is continuity there. Which means that they've gone through the bulk of two civilisational cycles now.
I'm not sure you can really say that the current Greeks in any way match the past greeks.

So what you are saying is that to beat the cycle, you have to stay that the national nation state forever basically or have something that utterly breaks the paradigm like post-scarcity or something?
 
Nations do tend to be long-lasting, though, with lots of continuity. Witness that, regardless of being under Roman rule for ages, and then claiming to be the heirs to Rome for ages, and then being under Turkish rule for ages, the Greeks are still here.

Nations are tied to their people. If they and their cultural oddities keep going, their country is practically immortal. Some will laugh at me, but I'm half convinced that's why Britain (England in particular) and Japan will go on for a very long time indeed. I'd say similarly for a lot of European nations, simply put because with not even a quarter of a century of the ill fated globalist project, people are reasserting their regional identities and rejecting multi-culturalism. What will another twenty-five years do to that attitude? It'll be a messy affair anyway if its swiftly resolved, but I don't doubt things will turn out in favour of the natives eventually.

I'm not sure you can really say that the current Greeks in any way match the past greeks.

They are of Dorian blood as I understand it, their language is a descendant of what the Spartans would have growled at Thermopylae, and there's probably more than a few "oddities" of their culture that turn out to be very old indeed. We are often closer to our ancestors than we realise.
 
Nothing under heaven is indefinite.

A key thing to remember is that the current economy, and its supposed affluence, is one very big soap bubble. It is straining. It is under stress. And the chosen way to keep it going is to rack up the debt, devaluate the currency, and promise people free stuff (paid for by that increasingly worthless currency). That recipe has never, once, in all of recorded history, worked out in the long term. The reasons why it always fails are obvious, and they are intrinsic. This current situation is not going to be the magical exception.

People talk about the Chinese system (social credit). They ignore that what's happening in China works for one reason: today is better than ten years ago, which was better than ten years before that, which was better than.... et cetera. People remember how shitty it was not-that-long-ago, so they'll accept quite a lot as long as there is real growth, and they have reason to believe their kids will have better jobs and lives than they do now. In the West, that trend is already reversed. Things are getting worse. So social reactions to the thumb-screws will not be the same. It all depends on how much you have to lose. Literally the reason why you correctly argue that China's present regime may last for some time: the average Chinese person has more to lose every year. The average Westerner has less to lose every year.

People also talk about about the masses being made dependent on a basic income. They ignore that a basic income is an ass-backward idea that is financially impossible. Do the math. You're either looking at something that requires full communism and taxes in the region of 120% GDP (literally impossible), or you'll retain a half-way functional economy but the basic income is a pittance that's just enough to starve on. (Possible solution to the money deficit for a 'high' basic income: print money like it's going out of style. Result: worthless money, so same outcome as the pittance. You think they won't be stupid enough to try that? I remind you that Paul Krugman exists and got a Nobel Prize. They are that stupid.)
1. I don't think their mutual trust is sufficiently developed, nor do I believe that it will develop. (In fact, I expect increasing distrust.)

2. I don't think their long-term interests converge sufficiently to make that attractive. Particularly not to the Chinese. (Nor to, say, India.)

3. Supposing that they do try it, it will be a last-ditch effort; one that (per what I said above) I would expect to involve huge concessions from the West to the East, which will, at that stage, only inflame social tensions to a point of ignition.

4. Still supposing that they try it, things will only get worse. Is there something about the words "globalist technocratic communism" than inspires confidence in you? It would be an utter shitshow!
Your not taking into consideration that means of control might become neurological. Injected nanites into the masses' brains and bodies, the use of carefully tailored chemicals in the drinking water to ensure a docile and obedient population, Rays-5G has a lot of crazy conspiracy theories, but its not scientifically impossible for actual electromagnetic or other forms of energy to be used as a way to control the populace-either keeping them docile, or paradoxically in a state of constant tension and anxiety.

Also propaganda, neural editing, and so forth-a lot of sci fi esque stuff but some of it, becoming closer and closer to reality.

So that the elites could have their dream-a populace that is incapable of rebellion, incapable of even imagining it. With methods that the masses themselves have no knowledge or understanding of(as this sort of science would be very much classified), and no way to break.

You could then have O'Brien's "the Party is eternal" speech to Winston become a reality.
 
Your not taking into consideration that means of control might become neurological. Injected nanites into the masses' brains and bodies, the use of carefully tailored chemicals in the drinking water to ensure a docile and obedient population, Rays-5G has a lot of crazy conspiracy theories, but its not scientifically impossible for actual electromagnetic or other forms of energy to be used as a way to control the populace-either keeping them docile, or paradoxically in a state of constant tension and anxiety.

Also propaganda, neural editing, and so forth-a lot of sci fi esque stuff but some of it, becoming closer and closer to reality.

So that the elites could have their dream-a populace that is incapable of rebellion, incapable of even imagining it. With methods that the masses themselves have no knowledge or understanding of(as this sort of science would be very much classified), and no way to break.

You could then have O'Brien's "the Party is eternal" speech to Winston become a reality.

Hmm, it's certainly telling that you worry so deeply about the very "ideal society" you want to manifest in the world ...
 
Hmm, it's certainly telling that you worry so deeply about the very "ideal society" you want to manifest in the world ...
My ideal society would need no “Mark of the Beast” man would be transformed in his spirit and would live according to the Divine will. There would be no rebellion because men’s hearts would be rejuvenated and purified.
 

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