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China Wuhan Virus Pandemic

gral

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This weekend, Brazil got the second confirmed case of coronavirus. As in the first case, iit's a resident of São Paulo State, and he got it while on vacation in Italy. The guy works for a big investment broker in Brazil(XP Investimentos), so who knows what kind of reaction the financial market will have.
 

Duke Nukem

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Its fucking happening


So the coronavirus is in NYC now , not good not good at all.
 
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D

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From what I have seen, it seems to affect small clusters of people, it doesn't spread out and affect large geographic areas.

Personally I don't see the death rate being that high.
 

Duke Nukem

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Notice how the media insists that criticizing Chinese dietary choices is racist?

Maybe their afraid people will start to think, “hmm maybe we shouldn’t be enmeshed economically and logistically with people who have open air markets where these viruses propagate”.
 
Actual COVID-19 Data

LordSunhawk

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WHO Report of March 2, 2020.
Total number of cases (confirmed) in China - 80,174.
Total number of deaths (confirmed) in China - 2,915.
Total number of cases (confirmed) outside of China - 8,774.
Total number of deaths (confirmed) outside of China - 128.
This leads to a confirmed Death Rate in China of ~3% and a confirmed Death Rate outside of China of ~1%


In the United States, the CDC rates this years flu season as 'moderate to low, with a death rate of 6.9%, 32 million cases, 310,000 hospitalizations, and 18,000 deaths. This is not a flu epidemic year (below the threshold of 7.3%). Note that 125 of those deaths are pediatric.



The Boot is posting this to help quell the hair-on-fire panic mongering and conspiracy silliness that this thread seems especially prone to. The Boot is giving comparative information of this years US flu season to put the COVID-19 nonsense into perspective.
 
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I think you’d need at least a 20% death rate to justify actual panic and end of the world doom mongering.

But yes, it’s very overblown and people treating it like it’s the next Spanish flu is probably more harmful than what the virus actually is.
 

Duke Nukem

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WHO Report of March 2, 2020.
Total number of cases (confirmed) in China - 80,174.
Total number of deaths (confirmed) in China - 2,915.
Total number of cases (confirmed) outside of China - 8,774.
Total number of deaths (confirmed) outside of China - 128.
This leads to a confirmed Death Rate in China of ~3% and a confirmed Death Rate outside of China of ~1%


In the United States, the CDC rates this years flu season as 'moderate to low, with a death rate of 6.9%, 32 million cases, 310,000 hospitalizations, and 18,000 deaths. This is not a flu epidemic year (below the threshold of 7.3%). Note that 125 of those deaths are pediatric.



The Boot is posting this to help quell the hair-on-fire panic mongering and conspiracy silliness that this thread seems especially prone to. The Boot is giving comparative information of this years US flu season to put the COVID-19 nonsense into perspective.
True, the chaos and economic problems COVID-19 is causing is alot more troublesome than the deathrate.
 

Marduk

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I think you’d need at least a 20% death rate to justify actual panic and end of the world doom mongering.

But yes, it’s very overblown and people treating it like it’s the next Spanish flu is probably more harmful than what the virus actually is.
Depends on how you look at it and how things develop.
Here's an interesting statement by a German virologist:

The figures are, 60-70% infected over 2 years or more.
Lets assume the worldwide average will be 70% infected, with death rate of 1% in countries with first world grade healthcare, and 3% world average, extrapolating from China. Keeping these rates is optimistic, as it implies no major country gets their healthcare system so overwhelmed that, say, half of the 20% that develop complications die from lack of intensive medical care.
That means:
2.3 million dead in USA.
3.1 million dead in EU.
163 million dead worldwide.

For comparison, the death toll of the Spanish Flu is estimated between 40 and 100 million, though world population was much smaller back then, around 2 billion. So in relative terms, it may be almost as bad as the Spanish Flu, which, stating the obvious, was not the end of the world or even breakdown of governments grade event despite partially coinciding with the damn WW1, while in absolute terms, the numbers will be much worse.

The economic aspect is the undervalued one though i think, the world economy is much more interdependent than it was in 1910's, and the effects of travel restrictions, damages and panic aren't going to be nice.
 
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Husky_Khan

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WHO Report of March 2, 2020.
Total number of cases (confirmed) in China - 80,174.
Total number of deaths (confirmed) in China - 2,915.
Total number of cases (confirmed) outside of China - 8,774.
Total number of deaths (confirmed) outside of China - 128.
This leads to a confirmed Death Rate in China of ~3% and a confirmed Death Rate outside of China of ~1%


In the United States, the CDC rates this years flu season as 'moderate to low, with a death rate of 6.9%, 32 million cases, 310,000 hospitalizations, and 18,000 deaths. This is not a flu epidemic year (below the threshold of 7.3%). Note that 125 of those deaths are pediatric.



The Boot is posting this to help quell the hair-on-fire panic mongering and conspiracy silliness that this thread seems especially prone to. The Boot is giving comparative information of this years US flu season to put the COVID-19 nonsense into perspective.
There might not even be must reason to assume the mortality rate even is 3% or 1% considering the symptoms of Covid2019 and other forms of influenza are remarkably similar. Also you have to consider the under-reporting in many cases either because the infected are asymptomatic, experience only mild symptoms, have symptoms similar to other forms of flu or due to underreporting for various numbers of reasons (lack of access to Covid2019 testing, healthcare access in general, self isolation/quarantine, or in the cases of countries like Iran, intentionally underreporting). There could be thousands of unreported cases and it's a lot harder to miss cases of infection with the reasons stated like above then significantly underreporting the number of deaths it maybe causing.
 
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