China Wuhan Virus Pandemic

Here comes the guy (me) who has to keep watching this fucking thing as part of my job, more so then my actual job in the Army! I know so much fucning shit about this thing.

So please take my words to heart.

Madagascar is all that is left!



It is highly infective. It is a bad fly. That is all it is! Yes it can kill those that are older and have health issues. So can the fucking common cold! Like god damn! Hell more people die from drugs everyday then the amount killed in the states and iirc what my battle buddy said, then what has died outside of china...

And South Korea is reacting the best, and has gotten the furthest with testing and the like!

And the REASON America isnt doing so well compared to a place like ROK. The size and how spread out the country is.


Troops in Italy and Korea are staying where they are till may.
Also, the national guard getting deployed to enforce quarantine (as well as standard and reserve armed forces) because guess what. People dont seem to be obeying it.
SORRY the military is better suited to enforce something like this then local police forces. Like fucking hell!
Yall are driving me insane!
Am I the only one keeping a calm head and comparing it to other pandemics...and the like? Seriously people.

That is because it is a common occurance...H1N1 caused issues. So did a whole bunch of ones. They just had a lower infection rate. The standard flu is also so damn common that is why
Some of us are in employment positions and locations that make transmission risk rather high. Some of us also have family who are in the high risk catagories that we are having to worry about, and most of us don't have an entire fucking army base around us to help screen for this bug.

The response in SK and your base is NOT close to what most of us are facing.

So kindly stop trying to act as an authority on this bug and stop acting as if your situation is at all like what the rest of us face.

They do not shut down international travel, close schools, cancel the NBA season, and declare a national emergency for 'its just the flu'.
 
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@Cherico
Wait, how are Mexicans more skilled than Chinese? The Chinese have the tiger mom culture that results in lots of diplomas and kids who’ve spent most of their lives studying and getting ahead of each other
As someone who has seen Mexicans work at Construction sites.......... The Chinese are rank amateurs in technical work ability compared to Mexicans. They actually impress me by all the shit they know how to do.

Edit: Oh yeah guys if your area doesn't have hand Sanitizer you can get Isopropyl Alcohol as a substitute. Remember Think Tactically and don't panic.
 
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As someone who has seen Mexicans work at Construction sites.......... The Chinese are rank amateurs in technical work ability compared to Mexicans. They actually impress me by all the shit they know how to do.

Edit: Oh yeah guys if your area doesn't have hand Sanitizer you can get Isopropyl Alcohol as a substitute. Remember Think Tactically and don't panic.
As someone who's parents hired a contractor to remodel their house, who then hired Mexicans, and nearly ended up getting said house condemned in the process; I question how anyone could be worse than that. Seriously, they had to spend around fifty thousand dollars getting most of the stuff those jackasses screwed up fixed (including replacing a poorly installed horizontal support beam that wasn't actually supporting anything, and nearly led to the whole house collapsing), and there's still more that needs to be done years later.
 
As someone who's parents hired a contractor to remodel their house, who then hired Mexicans, and nearly ended up getting said house condemned in the process; I question how anyone could be worse than that. Seriously, they had to spend around fifty thousand dollars getting most of the stuff those jackasses screwed up fixed (including replacing a poorly installed horizontal support beam that wasn't actually supporting anything, and nearly led to the whole house collapsing), and there's still more that needs to be done years later.

I would assume that Mexicans, being a large population, include both competent and incompetent individuals among their number.
 
Some interesting perspectives:

Short answer - we can all act normally, work, travel, interact with people, and most of us will catch COVID-19, get sick, get better, and be immune, and Coronavirus would be STOPPED from spreading. A few people will die, if they were unwell already.
OR - we could try to isolate, quarantine, ‘slow it down’, and end up with a half dozen much more virulent and dangerous versions of the virus that none of us have immunity to, and we all get sick multiple times, a lot more people die and we risk a super-virus evolving that has a much higher mortality rate. Civilization is devastated by us all not working or travelling, compounding the issues.
I did some work with the CDC while at NVIDIA, modeling epidemics, and they have known for decades that a virulent flu was coming like this, and published extensively, and books have been written,... so intelligent people should know better.
A flu virus is perfectly evolved to propagate from host to host, from direct contact, secondary contact with an object they touched, or airborne particles, over significant distances. They can go dormant in a population, or move to an animal reservoir and re-emerge years later. Evolution has shaped them to spread, and stopping them by hygiene is impossible. No amount of hand sanitizer, toilet paper, medical masks, nor wearing safety vests with quarantine symbols on them to tell everyone to keep 15 ft away or more is going to stop a virus that has been with us all of humanity (and all of life on earth). We have always lived in an ecosystem of viruses, and only our adaptive immune system, in a constant arms race with them is what keeps us alive.
That is what stops an epidemic… is immunity - either by vaccination or by enough people just getting sick, getting better, and a large enough percentage of the population gaining immunity that the virus can no longer effectively propagate through the population.
Paradoxically, the worst thing to do is to have people isolate to avoid catching it, as it delays the population from gaining that mass immunity and gives the virus more isolated pockets and time in which to mutate, turning into multiple strains that people can keep catching, and the epidemic lasts longer before overall immunity emerges. We can't just sit out a few rounds in this arms race, as our immune systems require constant exposure to incrementally new strains of viruses to be effective against them.
Even if you could really do so, slowing the spread of a virus is WORST thing to do because, unfortunately, it allows it to mutate much more, in the body of a host if you delay time from infection to transmission, in a population if they are isolated and there is genetic mixing as it happens, and in the population at large if you now have multiple strains from different populations, and no cross-immunity. Slowing the spread of a worldwide virus is just giving it more time to mutate, divide into multiple strains, and become much. much worse.
That is the fundamental assumption everyone is mistakenly making that a virus is a static target - when a virus is very dynamic - and instead of slowing it down causing less people to catch it, and lowering the burden of the medical system in a nice flatter curve, you get an exponential curve with all the mutated more virulent strains wreaking far more havoc. These ‘protective measures’ make the problem worse in the long run.
 
Some massive holes in that reasoning:
Mutations, contrary to what it sounds like, do not necessarily make the virus worse. There is a "optimum zone" of severity and transmissibility for a virus to sustain an epidemic, and COVID-19 fits that description pretty closely. That's why there are much more lethal viruses, like ebola, that yet don't spread nearly as much, because they become too obvious and kill their hosts too quickly to spread as much as COVID-19 does. So if the virus was to mutate, its not necessarily making it worse, could be the opposite - become more benign, or get knocked out of the optimum zone otherwise.

Secondly, it ignores the main reason for all the delay tactics: healthcare system capacity.

Lower-and-Delay-Epedimic-Peak-1024x584.jpg

All cases above the line are on their own, no hospital care for them because hospitals are overloaded.
 
As someone who's parents hired a contractor to remodel their house, who then hired Mexicans, and nearly ended up getting said house condemned in the process; I question how anyone could be worse than that. Seriously, they had to spend around fifty thousand dollars getting most of the stuff those jackasses screwed up fixed (including replacing a poorly installed horizontal support beam that wasn't actually supporting anything, and nearly led to the whole house collapsing), and there's still more that needs to be done years later.
I can only speak for the ones that build Apartment Complexes. They did a pretty great job.

Alta%20Brighton%20Park%20Summerville%20Furnished%20Apartments%20.jpg


22_eks0vf.jpg


They didn't do shotty work.

Edit just saw Marduk's post.
 
Some massive holes in that reasoning:
Mutations, contrary to what it sounds like, do not necessarily make the virus worse. There is a "optimum zone" of severity and transmissibility for a virus to sustain an epidemic, and COVID-19 fits that description pretty closely. That's why there are much more lethal viruses, like ebola, that yet don't spread nearly as much, because they become too obvious and kill their hosts too quickly to spread as much as COVID-19 does. So if the virus was to mutate, its not necessarily making it worse, could be the opposite - become more benign, or get knocked out of the optimum zone otherwise.

Secondly, it ignores the main reason for all the delay tactics: healthcare system capacity.

Lower-and-Delay-Epedimic-Peak-1024x584.jpg

All cases above the line are on their own, no hospital care for them because hospitals are overloaded.
I don't think he understands that the Corona virus might require hospital care; he seems to be making the same assumption that a lot of people downplaying this are, that it's no worse than the flu, which most people self-treat.
 
Confirmed cases inside China - 81,021 (18 new)
Confirmed deaths inside China - 3,194 (14 new)
Confirmed cases outside of China - 61,518 (9,751 new)
Confirmed deaths outside of China - 2,199 (424 new)

Mortality rates, age of death, and severity indicators remain constant. Please note that most of the numbers you hear bandied about are not actual data but rather the results of model runs.
 
Confirmed cases inside China - 81,021 (18 new)
Confirmed deaths inside China - 3,194 (14 new)
Confirmed cases outside of China - 61,518 (9,751 new)
Confirmed deaths outside of China - 2,199 (424 new)

Mortality rates, age of death, and severity indicators remain constant. Please note that most of the numbers you hear bandied about are not actual data but rather the results of model runs.
Also please note that China is probably falsifying their data, while the WHO is currently run by a man who was caught doing just that in his home country, and has lied on behalf of China several times. Not to mention the fact that the part of the WHO currently assigned to addressing the Corona virus is drastically underfunded, and understaffed.

Seriously; anyone with half a brain should not trust the statistics you're citing. At all.
 
Too be fair some of us are being dramatic, don't take the panic too literally. I dont fear the virus, Although I do fear the possibility of food riots from people panicking and emptying stores... which I have started seeing. As for my comment part of that is wishful thinking on my part that now would be a great time to leave foreign entanglements.
Some people are taking this way to far.
That job has it's perks knowing more than us.



Some other official got it.

Yeah I know, and I dont know what all I can tell you. If i did I would tell yall what I am allowed to.
No offense, but I don't think I will. I don't think anyone really know what's going on anymore, despite insistences to the contrary, and I'm just waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop. Not like it matters from my perspective; as the Corona virus will kill my parents if they get infected with it. Considering we live just south of Seattle, I fail to see how making irrelevant comparisons are supposed to make me feel better.
I am in South Korea....how do you think I feel? The US Army here is constantly watching the virus to see what it is doing. So, look at it this way: The US Army is not quarantining an entire base because the surrounding area is infected. Hell, we cant leave the country because of civilians being infected.
I hate to say it, but people will die because of this. It will happen.
China is now trying to blame us for this, exactly as I predicted they would:




What seems like a small outbreak can quickly go out of control due to exponential spread. That's why all of Italy is under quarantine right now.

I take this thing very, very seriously. Which is why I sent this missive to my employer in response to a safety bulletin regarding the virus:



So, again, to recap, if you're one of the unlucky 1 in 5 infected who develops severe or critical COVID-19, this is what can happen to your body:
  • Bilateral viral pneumonia with ground-glass lesions visible on CT scans
  • Pulmonary fibrosis and permanent lung scarring, all the way up to hemorrhagic necrosis of lung tissue
  • Hypoxemia precipitating injury of all organs, including the kidneys
  • Myocarditis precipitating myoglobinemia and acute kidney injury
  • Liver injury
  • Possible male sterility
  • Autoimmune reactions/cytokine release syndrome
  • Severe bacterial co-infections
  • Neurological symptoms including cerebrovascular or medullary infection, leading to collapses and seizures
You know what they do to severe and critical COVID-19 patients? They intubate them and they give them barely-tested cutting-edge antivirals, antibiotics, steroids, antipyretics, decongestants, and basically everything they can to keep them alive, while also monitoring their blood and liver labs and blood pressure. It's like running a marathon. Doctors and nurses are getting sick with this shit, too, treating patients day and night and collapsing from exhaustion, while also maintaining nearly inhuman infection control measures.

The exact mechanism by which SARS-CoV-2 causes all this insane inflammation is now known in great detail.

ACE2 normally converts Angiotensin II into Angiotensin 1-7, which, in turn, is a Mitochondrial assembly receptor agonist. The process has a blood pressure regulating and anti-inflammatory effect.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a SARS-CoV-2 receptor: molecular mechanisms and potential therapeutic target

The virus uses ACE2 as its cell entry receptor, blocking Ang II from converting to Ang 1-7 and behaving as a MasR agonist. Ang II builds up, with a massive pro-inflammatory effect, damaging tissues and causing hypertension.

This is what I meant when I said weeks ago that the virus "dysregulates angiotensin".

For those who don't know what the RAAS system does, these vids do a good job of explaining it:





Most of the people dying of COVID-19 are not dying of respiratory issues. They're getting intubated, and they're getting sufficient air, and then, guess what? Heart failure out of the blue, and then they code in the ICU. Dead.





Anyone who is downplaying the seriousness of this virus does not know what they are talking about.

And those that are going crazy are making things worse. My job right now is literally watching the Virus! We are doing that because...guess what...I am in one of the highest infected countries!
Some of us are in employment positions and locations that make transmission risk rather high. Some of us also have family who are in the high risk catagories that we are having to worry about, and most of us don't have an entire fucking army base around us to help screen for this bug.

The response in SK and your base is NOT close to what most of us are facing.

So kindly stop trying to act as an authority on this bug and stop acting as if your situation is at all like what the rest of us face.

They do not shut down international travel, close schools, cancel the NBA season, and declare a national emergency for 'its just the flu'.
So, should I point out past pandemics? Like we had a national emergency for H1N1. Yet guess what. It was just a flu. This may be stronger then the normal flu we are used to may hospitalize people. But guess what! The death rate is low as hell for this.
Also the base is not perfect. Someone with the virus went into our main Starbucks and PX on base...
My grandfather has cancer and is taking Chemo...how do you think I feel with him taking those at this time?
Also, I sit in a room and talk with people. If any of us got infected we all would. So we are extra cautious
Also please note that China is probably falsifying their data, while the WHO is currently run by a man who was caught doing just that in his home country, and has lied on behalf of China several times. Not to mention the fact that the part of the WHO currently assigned to addressing the Corona virus is drastically underfunded, and understaffed.

Seriously; anyone with half a brain should not trust the statistics you're citing. At all.
Well, do you have data that contradicts this?
I have info that, if I find out where to get it and if it is unclassified. I would share it because it seems useful.
 

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