I hope you are wrong with this but time will tell.I don't think Armenia's chances are good. They did alright last time but actually got outplayed due to the Azeri's doing a better job of prepwork with their largescale infiltration of Special Forces prior to the conflict before systematically dismantling the Armenian entrenchments and the Armenians having no real answer to the Bayraktar drones.
They got some new stuff from India but I don't think any of it is a real game changer. Only hope is that the CSTO or Iran/India whatever can prevent the Azeris from getting too zealous in their potential conquest of Karabakh, or any attempts to infringe upon internationally recognized Armenian territory.
I would not be so sure about that, i thing Iranian Azeris, now after the recent protests more than ever, know that demonstrating any other opinion would not end well for them, regardless if the want to or not, it's Iran we are talking about, not some cucked western country where ethnic minorities are outright encouraged to complain and then get rewarded for doing so. I would say that the worse things get in Iran and the better Azerbaijan does, the more interested they will get in the latter.Iran because even if you are against those who rules it, the Azeri has expansionist ideas to extend towards Iran, this despite the average Iranian Azeri identifies itself as Iranian first and Azeri later and because there is the passive alliance with Israel. It would be a two pigeons with one stone in a way.
Plus, if that watermelon seller in Ankara that pretends to be a Sultan but acts like a pig want to help, the only way he can do it is by supplying through Georgia or fly whatever to Azerbaijan. Both are risky. Unless, but this is speculation, Turkey decides to attack Armenia and we know what happens next. Just like 1915.
I hope you are wrong with this but time will tell.
It might mean something though if the Azeris are complaining to India.
Yeah, people forget how tiny Armenia is (preventing access to decent economies of scale in most military technology categories), especially after accounting for its weak economy. It makes Czech Republic look like a major power in comparison. In the 90's war it could kinda cheat around it by using Soviet era windfall in equipment and trained personnel.Well hopefully the Armenians learned something from the last War and the ensuing border disputes but they don't seem to have many foreign suppliers. AFAIK Russians have been clandestinely supplying Armenia with arms, like through their peacekeeping forces, but India seems to be the only actual supplier of anything major. Having self propelled guns and modern MLRS systems (and SAM's and radars from India) would be better then what they previously had but I'm not sure it'll make a significant difference unless Armenia has done something else within their armed forces to really improve their effectiveness and performance.
Being outspent eight times by Azerbaijan and possessing several times the smaller population and economy and significant arms backers like Turkey and Israel is going to be hard to overcome.
Russia voices annoyance with both Armenia and Azerbaijan
Reuters
September 13, 202310:13 AM GMT+2Updated 2 hours ago
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia, April 4, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/file photo Acquire Licensing Rights
Sept 13 (Reuters) - Russia has protested to Azerbaijan over comments it made about weekend regional elections in areas of Ukraine claimed by Moscow, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.
She also accused Armenia of making "unacceptable and harmful" statements that were damaging to the prospects for a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Zakharova's comments reflected a sharp worsening of Russia's relations with both countries, which have fought two wars in the three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Distracted by the war in Ukraine, Moscow is struggling to maintain its position as the leading power and security guarantor in the region.
At the weekend, Azerbaijan released a statement on what it called "sham 'elections' in certain territories of Ukraine" - a reference to votes that Russia was holding in four partly occupied regions of Ukraine that it claimed as its own after invading its neighbour last year.
The Azerbaijani statement said the Russian vote was taking place in areas internationally recognised as part of Ukraine and was therefore legally void.
Zakharova told reporters that Russia had lodged a diplomatic protest because the comments were "unacceptable to us and do not correspond to the allied nature of relations between our countries".
"We proceed from the fact that Baku should treat the territorial integrity of our country with the same respect that Baku expects from us, when it comes to the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan," she added.
Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have risen in the past week, with each side accusing the other of building up troop concentrations near their borders.
Armenia has accused Russia, which has maintained a peacekeeping force in the region since the last war in 2020, of failing to protect it against what it calls Azerbaijani aggression.
Zakharova said Armenia's recent statements had an "unfriendly character" and were damaging to the peace process over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The territory is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is mostly populated by ethnic Armenians who broke away from Baku in a war in the 1990s.
Reporting by Filipp Lebedev, writing by Mark Trevelyan Editing by Gareth Jones
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
What to expect from the entry of the Russian humanitarian aid into Artsakh from Azerbaijan: analysis of the deteriorating situation
Artsakh/Karabakh | Արցախ/Ղարաբաղ
As stated earlier today, the Russian Red Cross truck entered from Akna (Aghdam) to Askeran and then Stepanakert, delivering humanitarian aid from the Russian Government. Here are a few key points regarding this:
By the way, symbolically today marks the 9th month of the genocidal blockade of the Artsakh people, who are strongly resisting to all the Azerbaijani and international criminal efforts of subjugating us to the Azerbaijani dictatorial and genocidal regime.
- This marks the first humanitarian supply to the Artsakh people since June 15, amidst the Azerbaijani genocide.
- It can be seen as a success for the Aliyev regime, as they managed to bring the "Aghdam route" into the mediator's agenda and secure access for a truck from their side, diminishing the exclusive role of the Lachin Corridor.
- However, it's also a failure on their part for not ensuring access for the Azerbaijani Red Crescent's "criminal" goods into Artsakh. It is important that no Azerbaijani good, person and vehicle accessed Artsakh.
- Though it could be interpreted also as a Russian success, however, in general, it is a failure for them. It is because they couldn't ensure the opening of the Lachin Corridor as per their duties and didn't push Azerbaijan to open it at least simultaneously with the Akna route.
- Agreeing to this deal, it appears that the Artsakh authorities aimed not only to alleviate the suffering of their people but also to place additional responsibilities on the Russian side, as guarantors of this deal, to increase Russian possible pressure on the Aliyev regime to open the Lachin Corridor.
- Since there were prior proposals and promises by the Russian and Azerbaijani sides to open the Lachin Corridor for humanitarian supplies within 24 hours after the first access from Akna, let's see what happens by tomorrow morning. I have strong doubts that Azerbaijan will find new pretexts and conditions to continue the full blockade of the Lachin Corridor and perpetuate the suffering of our people.
- In the event of the Azerbaijani side not keeping their agreements and promises, Russia must utilize all available resources to forcefully open the Lachin Corridor to prevent further damage to its reputation on the ground.
- If negotiations for the use of an Azerbaijani route are not avoidable in any way, it is essential to discuss other routes as well. For instance, why not allow access to the Russian truck from Shushi instead of Akna, especially when we've had prior experiences before the blockade? It will somewhat decrease the negative impacts of the Azerbaijani route.
- It's crucial for the Artsakh authorities to coordinate their efforts and resources with the Russian, European and American sides harmoniously and maintain transparent and honest communication with all mediators. Historically, the Azerbaijani side has effectively rejected and canceled many mediation initiatives by playing on conflicts between Russia and the West. I have a concern that they may employ this tactic again in the coming days.
- Both the Artsakh authorities and all mediators must exercise caution and professionalism in negotiating and agreeing on all the details before taking the first step. It appears that not all details were prearranged before the Russian Red Cross truck's entry, and Azerbaijan may attempt to exploit this gap to jeopardize the Russian initiative.
- Among the crucial details are: who, when, how and from where will access be granted; the origin and nature of delivered products; the designated routes; the control regime in the Lachin Corridor; permitted daily volumes; and the clear roles of peacekeepers and the ICRC. Negotiating, agreeing and securing guarantees for these questions are essential for ensuring somewhat stable and interim solutions regarding humanitarian supplies.
- Failure to address these concerns and secure agreements with direct guarantees by great powers may allow Azerbaijan to progressively cross red lines and gain more than it should with such an approach.
https://www.reddit.com/user/spetcnaz/
level 1
spetcnaz
·15 hr. ago
Yerevan
I think history, and especially recent history has shown that Russia's word and promises are less than worthless. We also know that Russia sees Artsakh as a fully integrated part of Azerbaijan. After all this to have any hopes of Russia doing something positive is insanity at best.
The current Artsakh leadership are, unfortunately Russian puppets, who will sacrifice their own homeland for their business interests in Russia and their possible future roles as Kapos of the area. Or they might just pack their shit and move to Russia when Russians inevitably hand Artsakh over.
Of course if they had any spine, they would be demanding international peacekeepers and Western sponsored negotiations with Azerbaijan. Alas, they lack that.
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Digiff
·14 hr. ago
Pushkin's golden fish tale
To your point 7 Mr Beglaryan, the issue t is that Azeris and Russian signed the allied agreement in 2022 which defines Artsakh authority as criminals and imposes on Russia to help Azeris with the territorial integrity. I believe Russians signed this because they have no plans to do anything forcefully. This has not been denounced by Yerevan and I believe same goes for Araik, no one really shouted at Moscow for signing such anti-Artsakh agreement.
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https://www.reddit.com/user/Alex_Hovhannisyan/
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Alex_Hovhannisyan
·14 hr. ago
United States
Armenia is in an impossible position geopolitically and has zero leverage. It wants to align with the west, but at the same time the west does not necessarily want to stick its neck out for us and has strategic interests with Azerbaijan. So we are left with Russia, an unreliable partner hated by the world that would happily throw us under the bus if it could (but is, as of now, the only country that has been able to successfully deliver aid to Artsakh). If we fully renounce Russia now, they will never forgive us and we will be seen as ungrateful traitors—they will almost certainly punish us by greenlighting or backing an Azeri invasion.
Amid all of this, we also want Artsakh to be recognized as an independent and sovereign state by everyone else, but at the same time we ourselves are not willing (or able) to do this. We reference Kosovo as a historical example justifying Artsakh's independence, but we ourselves do not recognize Kosovo. And so the U.S. state department also does not recognize Artsakh. So what is our end goal? Our expectations seem to be unrealistic. I really don't know anymore.
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https://www.reddit.com/user/inbe5theman/
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inbe5theman
·13 hr. ago
United States
Its just incompetence
Purely so. This is the best Armenians have been able to produce since the fall of the Soviets. Its going to take a long darn good while for things to improve leadership wise. Brain drain doesn't exactly mitigate this issue
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https://www.reddit.com/user/Garegin16/
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Garegin16
·6 hr. ago
So US recognizes Kosovo, but not the state department?
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https://www.reddit.com/user/DeGuyWithDeOpinion/
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DeGuyWithDeOpinion
·6 hr. ago
This unfortunately seems like a political win for Azerbaijan, but I do think that for the sake of the people of Artsakh this might have been the best case.
Azerbaijan, and probably Russia, will almost certainly use this to justify continued blockading of Lachin. "We can get supplies through Aghdam instead!" has been their mantra since the start of the blockade. And this will be used to keep justifying that mantra.
Unfortunately, in a life and death situation like this, where it's either starve or go through Aghdam, I can't blame anyone who chooses Aghdam. However, this absolutely must not be used as an excuse to let up on the demands for Lachin to be opened! Azerbaijan may be trying to move the goalposts, but Lachin must be opened whether they like it or not!
Mythical argument, there is no evidence for this, other than you being bad at understanding genetic studies that you so proudly like to mention (genetically ME populations are interbred like fuck anyway). Nation? Again, no one can still point out what makes them a separate people from Arabs, which is the core of the problem. It's just a tactical distraction from the fact that this is a territorial conflict between Jews and Arabs, making it a conflict between Jews and supposed Palestinians with Arabs standing aside as a supposed third party.1.Palestinians as nation - they are made in 20th century,like lithuanians,belarussians and ukrainians.
But palestinians as people - they are there from bronze age,only changed religion and culture few times.
Classic story, just like their favorite one, commies vs nazis in WW2.2.Entire Armenia was once muslim vassal state,just like Georgia,till they become enslaved by Russians.To be honest - if i were armenian and face turks,i would welcome russians as liberators.
Becouse,in that particular case,they were liberators,or at least lesser evil
This hàppens às there àre protests in Yerevàn.
Well, let's see how it goes.