Middle East News Thread

[WolfBear]

Well that wouldn't be their own state, and it wouldn't be much better either.

Most of those were huge empires held together by strong centralized power. In Afghanistan, that would be a very bold statement to make.

Well, the Hazaras still appear to like the US:

Afghans Show Mixed Feelings About US More Than a Year After Withdrawal

New Gallup poll finds perception of US leadership has improved among some Afghans over a year after the departure of US troops

www.voanews.com

But they won't be as oppressed and brutalized in Iran or in the US as they would back at home in Afghanistan:

Hazaras in Afghanistan are at risk of more mass killings | Al Bawaba

Contributed by George Kerr

www.albawaba.com

Why the Hazara Genocide Matters? - The Geopolitics

Following the hasty withdrawal of the US and NATO troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power in mid-August 2021, the ongoing genocidal violence against the vulnerable Hazaras has heightened, and so has the fear of other mass atrocities.

thegeopolitics.com

At Least Nine Reportedly Killed In Taliban Attack On Village In Ethnic Hazara Province

At least nine people, including three children, were killed after Taliban forces attacked a village in the provincial capital of Afghanistan’s Daikundi Province two days ago, a tribal elder told the Germany news agency dpa on November 27.

gandhara.rferl.org

The Taliban Are Wrecking Ashura Too

Afghanistan’s extremist rulers are cracking down on minorities, especially Shiites, as hard as they have on women.

foreignpolicy.com

The Hazaras could be viewed as being the Jews of Afghanistan in regards to their persecution:

Opinion | A religious minority faces a second genocide in Afghanistan. Jews must act now

The Hazaras have faced violent persecution for centuries for their appearance, language, and Shiite Muslim faith.

forward.com

I suppose that they could be resettled in Mongolia since they're of Mongoloid descent but the whole Islam factor (even if Shi'a) could create some problems.

What about Iraq? It was rather centralized under Saddam Hussein and yet still managed to survive his ouster.

 

[Marduk]

Well, the Hazaras still appear to like the US:

Afghans Show Mixed Feelings About US More Than a Year After Withdrawal

New Gallup poll finds perception of US leadership has improved among some Afghans over a year after the departure of US troops

www.voanews.com

Of course they do. Like many others. Even outright Islamists want to go there after all, and we all know why.

But they won't be as oppressed and brutalized in Iran or in the US as they would back at home in Afghanistan:

Hazaras in Afghanistan are at risk of more mass killings | Al Bawaba

Contributed by George Kerr

www.albawaba.com

Why the Hazara Genocide Matters? - The Geopolitics

Following the hasty withdrawal of the US and NATO troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power in mid-August 2021, the ongoing genocidal violence against the vulnerable Hazaras has heightened, and so has the fear of other mass atrocities.

thegeopolitics.com

At Least Nine Reportedly Killed In Taliban Attack On Village In Ethnic Hazara Province

At least nine people, including three children, were killed after Taliban forces attacked a village in the provincial capital of Afghanistan’s Daikundi Province two days ago, a tribal elder told the Germany news agency dpa on November 27.

gandhara.rferl.org

The Taliban Are Wrecking Ashura Too

Afghanistan’s extremist rulers are cracking down on minorities, especially Shiites, as hard as they have on women.

foreignpolicy.com

The Hazaras could be viewed as being the Jews of Afghanistan in regards to their persecution:

Opinion | A religious minority faces a second genocide in Afghanistan. Jews must act now

The Hazaras have faced violent persecution for centuries for their appearance, language, and Shiite Muslim faith.

forward.com

I suppose that they could be resettled in Mongolia since they're of Mongoloid descent but the whole Islam factor (even if Shi'a) could create some problems.

For now. If Iran decides to treat them worse, they have even less of a fighting chance than in the wild Afghanistan.

What about Iraq? It was rather centralized under Saddam Hussein and yet still managed to survive his ouster.

Part of that is pressure of hostile neighbors - Iran would more likely than not gobble up the Shia part, so it would be de facto hard to distinguish from just ceding land to Iran, so why even bother. And the other part is US influence being against the division for their more or less similar reasons.

 

[WolfBear]

Of course they do. Like many others. Even outright Islamists want to go there after all, and we all know why.

For now. If Iran decides to treat them worse, they have even less of a fighting chance than in the wild Afghanistan.

Part of that is pressure of hostile neighbors - Iran would more likely than not gobble up the Shia part, so it would be de facto hard to distinguish from just ceding land to Iran, so why even bother. And the other part is US influence being against the division for their more or less similar reasons.

Islamists want to go to the West for the money if they're sane or to blow things up if they're insane, right?

True. Though then I suppose that they could just return to Afghanistan, no?

Makes sense. BTW, in 2016, this article convinced me against partitioning Iraq:

Partitioning Iraq: Make a Detailed Case, or Cease and Desist

The mostly non-Iraqi voices who want to divide the country into three ethno-sectarian cantonments—Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurd—owe the Iraqi people extensive, detailed clarification. If neither the Iraqi Arab polity nor Iraq's most powerful political factions seek three-way partition, then the case...

www.rand.org

I do wonder if any future countries have partition in their future. Other than perhaps the UK with Scotland, et cetera.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Biden Has Agreed To Military Option Against Iran If Diplomacy Fails

archived 9 Dec 2022 01:30:33 UTC

archive.vn

 

[TheRejectionist]

Biden Has Agreed To Military Option Against Iran If Diplomacy Fails

archived 9 Dec 2022 01:30:33 UTC

archive.vn

Oh boy, Iran is Afghanistan on steroids.

 

[Buba]

So, when will USA attack India, North Korea, Izrael and Pakistan for illegal nuclear arms production and possession?

 

[Arch Dornan]

Oh boy, Iran is Afghanistan on steroids.

Zoomers can get to enjoy PTSD.

 

[Marduk]

Oh boy, Iran is Afghanistan on steroids.

Iran has little to do with Afghanistan. They aren't a shitpoor country with a long tradition of clan\tribal militias with fluid allegiances taking shelter in a neighboring nuclear power if need be.
Iran is, at least for the beginning, more of a conventional war problem, more than Iraq was.
And then time will tell.

 

[Zachowon]

Iran has mountains which will make that part difficult but we would win handedly

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Iran has mountains which will make that part difficult but we would win handedly

China would LOVE to see us go into Iran. I'm sure they see it as the USA's potential Ukraine invasion with us playing the part of Russia. China can then support Iran with arms shipments.

How that works out I don't know.

 

[Marduk]

China would LOVE to see us go into Iran. I'm sure they see it as the USA's potential Ukraine invasion with us playing the part of Russia. China can then support Iran with arms shipments.

How that works out I don't know.

a) Which border would they send support through? Which of them is willing to sell out their relations with the West for the sake for Shia theocrats? Afghanistan may as they have little to lose in that regard, but their borders won't stop US planes.
b) Part of Russia's failure comes from their utter failure to run deep interdiction missions on the western border of Ukraine to destroy western aid despite hyping up their air capabilities into being almost like USA and doing Desert Storm like things, while reality is obviously disagreeing and their aircraft don't dare fly there.
Can Iran achieve the same against an air force that's the real deal?

 

[Buba]

China would LOVE to see us go into Iran. I'm sure they see it as the USA's potential Ukraine invasion with us playing the part of Russia.

Which, from a certain point of view, is absolutely true.
In PR terms "we will beat up Iran so no can haz BOMB!" is ... not very good.

 

[Zachowon]

China would LOVE to see us go into Iran. I'm sure they see it as the USA's potential Ukraine invasion with us playing the part of Russia. China can then support Iran with arms shipments.

How that works out I don't know.

Desert Storm and 03 invasion level of stomp

 

[TheRejectionist]

Desert Storm and 03 invasion level of stomp

So we are gonna see you leave in twenty years and give the country away to your next worst enemy ?

 

[Zachowon]

So we are gonna see you leave in twenty years and give the country away to your next worst enemy ?

I didn't mention A-stan

 

[Agent23]

So, when will USA attack India, North Korea, Izrael and Pakistan for illegal nuclear arms production and possession?

France and Pakistan, too.

Well, maybe not France, although back in the day the USA was not happy France managed to make nukes.

 

[paulobrito]

Well, to be fair, back in the day, the US as delusions of maintaining a nuclear monopoly. They denied access to the UK, even if part of the scientists that create it are British.

 

[History Learner]

Desert Storm and 03 invasion level of stomp

Millennium Challenge 2002 did indeed find that Iran would stomp us at those levels, including the loss of a CBG.

 

[Marduk]

Millennium Challenge 2002 did indeed find that Iran would stomp us at those levels, including the loss of a CBG.

Millenium Challenge 2002 found out that we don't have anything near perfectly accurate battle simulation technology, but i could have told you that without a massive military exercise.
Millenium Challenge 2002 found out that yes, you can get crazy result by abusing the RL limits of a simulated exercise.
The fact that you think this is indicative of anything that would happen in reality is reflective of your many times confirmed total cluelessness about military matters.

DoD News: Gen. Kernan And Maj. Gen. Cash Discuss Millennium Challenge's Lessons

www.globalsecurity.org

Q: As a follow-up to what he said, Van Riper also said that most of the blue Naval losses were due to cruise missiles. Can you talk about that and say how concerned you are about that?


Kernan: Well, I don't know. To be honest with you, I haven't had an opportunity to assess the aegis of what happened. But that's a possibility, once again, because we had to shut off some of these self-defense systems on the models that would have normally been employed. That's a possibility. I think the important thing to note is -- is that normally, the Navy would have been significantly over the horizon. They would've been arrayed an awful lot differently than we forced them to because of what they had to do for live-exercise piece of it. And it forced us into a -- to the same environment from a simulation perspective. Yeah, I think we learned some things.


The specifics of the cruise-missile piece -- I don't -- you know, I really can't answer that question. We'd have to get back to you.


Yes, ma'am.

Yes, the simulation found out that these missiles would work great if the Navy for some reason used neither defensive systems nor defensive tactics, which it couldn't do within the constraints of this exercise, but probably would in a real war.

Speaking of, in the unlikely scenario you are interested in knowing anything, check out the real world performance of Iran's naval tactics in the Tanker War and Operation Praying Mantis.

 

[Agent23]

Millennium Challenge 2002 did indeed find that Iran would stomp us at those levels, including the loss of a CBG.

Yeah, despite all the embargoes Iran has managed to hold up surprisingly well, much better than Iraq, also there is the problem that state-wise Iran is far more coherent and nationalistic, with an actual national history that goes back over two thousand years, a vehement hatred for the West/USA and a much larger and more sophisticated military and industrial capabilities than Iraq had as well as 2x-3x the population Iraq had at the start of the US invasion.

Also, they can fuck with the straits of Hormuz and use their proxies to hit Arab refineries, if you think the 1970s oil shock was something then you ain't seen nothing yet.