Middle East News Thread

[TheRejectionist]

Turkey is apparently launching one of its biggest operations yet into Syria (and Northern Iraq) dubbed 'Operation Claw-Sword.'

Türkiye conducts 'most comprehensive' operation in northern Iraq, Syria

Ankara sees PKK and YPG as same terrorist groups, calls on countries, especially US, to cut all support to terrorists, says defense minister - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

So far it's been a large scale air campaign against alleged PKK/YPG targets in Syria and Iraq.

Nearly 500 Kurdish targets hit in Iraq and Syria, 254 terrorists killed, claims Turkey's defence minister

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Wednesday that Turkey's military had hit nearly 500 Kurdish targets across Iraq and Syria as part of an air strikes’ campaign. “So far, 471 targets have been struck and 254 terrorists were neutralised in the operation,” Akar was quoted as saying by the...

www.wionews.com

Well, I guess I am gonna skip Istanbul and just stay in Anatolia far from the capital.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Turkey is apparently launching one of its biggest operations yet into Syria (and Northern Iraq) dubbed 'Operation Claw-Sword.'

Türkiye conducts 'most comprehensive' operation in northern Iraq, Syria

Ankara sees PKK and YPG as same terrorist groups, calls on countries, especially US, to cut all support to terrorists, says defense minister - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

So far it's been a large scale air campaign against alleged PKK/YPG targets in Syria and Iraq.

Nearly 500 Kurdish targets hit in Iraq and Syria, 254 terrorists killed, claims Turkey's defence minister

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Wednesday that Turkey's military had hit nearly 500 Kurdish targets across Iraq and Syria as part of an air strikes’ campaign. “So far, 471 targets have been struck and 254 terrorists were neutralised in the operation,” Akar was quoted as saying by the...

www.wionews.com

So the Sultan wants his own special military operation.

 

[WolfBear]

So the Sultan wants his own special military operation.

Yep, unfortunately. The Turkoman vs. the Kurds.

 

[TheRejectionist]

So the Sultan wants his own special military operation.

Yep, unfortunately. The Turkoman vs. the Kurds.

Turkey is apparently launching one of its biggest operations yet into Syria (and Northern Iraq) dubbed 'Operation Claw-Sword.'

Türkiye conducts 'most comprehensive' operation in northern Iraq, Syria

Ankara sees PKK and YPG as same terrorist groups, calls on countries, especially US, to cut all support to terrorists, says defense minister - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

So far it's been a large scale air campaign against alleged PKK/YPG targets in Syria and Iraq.

Nearly 500 Kurdish targets hit in Iraq and Syria, 254 terrorists killed, claims Turkey's defence minister

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Wednesday that Turkey's military had hit nearly 500 Kurdish targets across Iraq and Syria as part of an air strikes’ campaign. “So far, 471 targets have been struck and 254 terrorists were neutralised in the operation,” Akar was quoted as saying by the...

www.wionews.com

Tangently related to the MENA region :

 

[Marduk]

US-Kurdish support is a mini Afghanistan redux - an involvement that exists because at some point in the past it had a good reason (in this case suppressing ISIL). But now that isn't a big deal anymore, so it's a continuing entanglement that has little point but also no one wants to cut it due to wanting to keep status quo and not wanting the already demonstrated PR problem of "abandoning the Kurds".
It's a Gordian Knot, and if Erdogan cuts it, the US leadership may protest officially but won't really mind much.
They are right that Kurds really overplayed their hand in negotiations since US air and spec ops support got them high off their successes against ISIL. They have missed the signs that despite helping them fight ISIL, USA won't help them fight Assad, and the captain obvious level fact that it sure as hell won't help fight a major NATO country for them.
If played right, this can be a good thing for US interests even. After all, increasing Turkish influence over Syria is going to come at the expense of Russian and Iranian influence, and that is a good thing - certainly better for EU and NATO if Syria is going to balance between Turkish-Iranian-Russian influence, rather than the alternative: Russian-Iranian influence.
Especially now, when Russia's influence is weakened, Iranian one relatively increased due to this, while Iran and Russia are getting cozier with themselves.

So yeah, i disagree with their conclusion that USA getting out of the Kurd supporting business is somehow a loss, rather than a good opportunity to withdraw from an awkward situation with lots of risks and little to no benefits.

Screw Bush, screw Dore, screw Hussein, no one sane cares anymore, it's a leftie pet peeve by now.

 

[TheRejectionist]

US-Kurdish support is a mini Afghanistan redux - an involvement that exists because at some point in the past it had a good reason (in this case suppressing ISIL). But now that isn't a big deal anymore, so it's a continuing entanglement that has little point but also no one wants to cut it due to wanting to keep status quo and not wanting the already demonstrated PR problem of "abandoning the Kurds".
It's a Gordian Knot, and if Erdogan cuts it, the US leadership may protest officially but won't really mind much.
They are right that Kurds really overplayed their hand in negotiations since US air and spec ops support got them high off their successes against ISIL. They have missed the signs that despite helping them fight ISIL, USA won't help them fight Assad, and the captain obvious level fact that it sure as hell won't help fight a major NATO country for them.
If played right, this can be a good thing for US interests even. After all, increasing Turkish influence over Syria is going to come at the expense of Russian and Iranian influence, and that is a good thing - certainly better for EU and NATO if Syria is going to balance between Turkish-Iranian-Russian influence, rather than the alternative: Russian-Iranian influence.
Especially now, when Russia's influence is weakened, Iranian one relatively increased due to this, while Iran and Russia are getting cozier with themselves.

So yeah, i disagree with their conclusion that USA getting out of the Kurd supporting business is somehow a loss, rather than a good opportunity to withdraw from an awkward situation with lots of risks and little to no benefits.

Screw Bush, screw Dore, screw Hussein, no one sane cares anymore, it's a leftie pet peeve by now.

It has to be seen what will happen to Turkey in the future. Considering I do have contacts there and they are cozying up to Moscow considerably. They have heating unlike most of Europe.

Turkish influence is only partially positive and only if the stop supporting Islamist in the border areas.

And you clearly don't belong in the sane crowd as always. But I guess as long as Polish or American blood isn't spilled, it good for you.

 

[Marduk]

It has to be seen what will happen to Turkey in the future. Considering I do have contacts there and they are cozying up to Moscow considerably. They have heating unlike most of Europe.

You can keep the Russian bullshit for yourself, lol. I live in Europe and know a lot of people there. They all have heating and they aren't even rich.
As for Turkey cozying up to Moscow, well, that's the kind of deals one can wish to Moscow, they kinda deserve each other. See: EU's deals with Erdogan. If that's the kind of deals Moscow is gonna get, one that is good for Erdogan and shitty for Moscow, i'm all for it. And it seems to be heading that way, considering Erdogan's continuing support for Ukraine while said supposed cozying up happens.
Talk about diplomatic humiliation.

Turkish influence is only partially positive and only if the stop supporting Islamist in the border areas.

From US perspective, it's better than Iranian influence, it's better than ISIL influence, it's better than Russian influence, it's better than even Assad influence. It's not ideal, but it's hard to think of a better alternative. If anything, champagne would flow in Washington if Erdogan decided to take three steps rather than just one and take over a big chunk of Syria including the unfortunate oil fields officially - after all, it would be at the expense of all the factions USA doesn't like.

And you clearly don't belong in the sane crowd as always. But I guess as long as Polish or American blood isn't spilled, it good for you.

Definitely better than the alternative, lol. What's not sane about it?

 

[WolfBear]

Screw Bush, screw Dore, screw Hussein, no one sane cares anymore, it's a leftie pet peeve by now.

Dore or Gore?

From US perspective, it's better than Iranian influence, it's better than ISIL influence, it's better than Russian influence, it's better than even Assad influence. It's not ideal, but it's hard to think of a better alternative. If anything, champagne would flow in Washington if Erdogan decided to take three steps rather than just one and take over a big chunk of Syria including the unfortunate oil fields officially - after all, it would be at the expense of all the factions USA doesn't like.

I thought that the US likes the Syrian Kurds, no?

 

[Marduk]

Dore or Gore?

Yes.

I thought that the US likes the Syrian Kurds, no?

For their utility against ISIL. If US likes them, why didn't it support them before?
Why else would US like them? They are in close relations with Turkish Kurds who in turn are on official terror lists and used to be supported by Soviets. Politically they definitely lean left and hard. What interest does USA have there if ISIL is out of the main stage?

 

[WolfBear]

What interest does USA have there if ISIL is out of the main stage?

To ensure that ISIS doesn't eventually resurge?

 

[Marduk]

To ensure that ISIS doesn't eventually resurge?

Any other faction taking this place does the same, and it's not much, because it's more likely to resurge in a completely different place, see: Africa.

 

[WolfBear]

Any other faction taking this place does the same, and it's not much, because it's more likely to resurge in a completely different place, see: Africa.

Re: Africa: Any chance that the higher birth rates in northern Nigeria combined with the Islamic fundamentalism and Sharia law there could eventually motivate Christian south Nigerians to once again try their luck with secession?

 

[WolfBear]

File:Nigeria Total Fertility Rate by state (2018 DHS).svg - Wikimedia Commons

commons.wikimedia.org

High fertility in Nigeria is primarily a Muslim thing.

 

[Marduk]

Re: Africa: Any chance that the higher birth rates in northern Nigeria combined with the Islamic fundamentalism and Sharia law there could eventually motivate Christian south Nigerians to once again try their luck with secession?

So far the government is fighting the islamists, so it would be kinda counterproductive for them.

 

[WolfBear]

So far the government is fighting the islamists, so it would be kinda counterproductive for them.

Well, the Islamists could democratically seize control of Nigeria's government sooner or later with those kinds of birth rates.

 

[Marduk]

Well, the Islamists could democratically seize control of Nigeria's government sooner or later with those kinds of birth rates.

And once it happens, that will be the time for the Christians to play around with separatism.

 

[WolfBear]

And once it happens, that will be the time for the Christians to play around with separatism.

Let's hope that it goes better for them than the Biafra War did.

BTW, if the Taliban are ever overthrown again in Afghanistan, do you see Afghanistan subsequently breaking up? I don't expect this to happen in years, FWIW. Much more likely that it happens in decades if it ever actually happens at all, which is very far from actually being even remotely guaranteed.

 

[Marduk]

Let's hope that it goes better for them than the Biafra War did.

BTW, if the Taliban are ever overthrown again in Afghanistan, do you see Afghanistan subsequently breaking up? I don't expect this to happen in years, FWIW. Much more likely that it happens in decades if it ever actually happens at all, which is very far from actually being even remotely guaranteed.

Possible, but hard to say what would Pakistan do in reaction, and in turn if it would work out this way in the end.

 

[WolfBear]

Possible, but hard to say what would Pakistan do in reaction, and in turn if it would work out this way in the end.

Frankly, the Hazaras certainly deserve their own state. Or the option of safe haven in another country, such as Iran, if life in Afghanistan will become too intolerable for them.

It's quite interesting: The 20th century saw a lot of countries break up: Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, and British India. But nowadays successful country breakups have become much rarer. For instance, Iraq was able to survive and recover from the rise of ISIS in its Sunni Arab territories, thankfully.

 

[Marduk]

Frankly, the Hazaras certainly deserve their own state. Or the option of safe haven in another country, such as Iran, if life in Afghanistan will become too intolerable for them.

Well that wouldn't be their own state, and it wouldn't be much better either.

It's quite interesting: The 20th century saw a lot of countries break up: Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, and British India. But nowadays successful country breakups have become much rarer. For instance, Iraq was able to survive and recover from the rise of ISIS in its Sunni Arab territories, thankfully.

Most of those were huge empires held together by strong centralized power. In Afghanistan, that would be a very bold statement to make.