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Deleted member 88
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Their not attacking the soldiers? Their going after the PM and government for signing a peace and not fighting on. Its the unrest of nationalists.
Turkish-backed attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan with formal declaration of War
- Thread starter Bacle
- Start date
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
How is demanding that soldiers keep dying in the war that is already lost not attack on the soldiers?
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Deleted member 88
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It’s an attack on the government for conceding.
D
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For what it is worth the Russian peacekeepers will defend Stepankert and the core of Nagorno-Karabakh. It’s better than a total defeat and ethnic cleansing and a win for Putin since it means he gets troops on both Armenian and Azeri soil and can thus manage the situation however he wants.
Firebat
Well-known member
Azerbaijan fully re-aligned itself towards Turkey, Russia's rival in what is now three conflict zones.
Armenian government is about to be replaced by another one - one which would blame Russia for everything. If nothing else, because blaming Russia is easier than blaming themselves. Dolchstoß 4life!
Two thousand Russian troops are going to be deployed in the middle of hostile territory in a completely indefensible position. Because that didn't totally fail in 1989, back when the entire region was formally part of the same country. Transport links (land or air) require cooperation of Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia. If things go south, Russian peacekeepers can't be adequately reinforced, supplied or evacuated.
A total victory indeed.
While I don't really keep up on Russia's near-abroad politics, I don't see how this was Russia's doing. Azerbaijan declared war on Armenia, after Armenia had stupidly alienated Russia and Turkey. Armenia's government leaders, thinking themselves more clever than they actually were, played themselves.
They pissed off Azerbaijan by repeatedly going back on agreements for a 30 year long peace talk. Then they decided that despite being landlocked by three powers that absolutely despises Western involvement, they were going pro-west and anti-Russian--while still in peace talks with the last neighbor. If that wasn't enough, Armenia's government then had the gull to piss off Turkey's own leadership by laying claim to areas of Turkey.
That only left Iran as a possible ally. And to be fair, the two have a tight under-the-table relationship. Iran makes good with Armenia and Armenia helps keep tabs on the Azerbaijan minorities within the border region touching Armenia and Azerbaijan. And for that reason, Iran sent an initial strong wave of support in terms of gear, advisors, and I think probably soldiers. Only to discover that overtly supporting Armenia against their kin in Azerbaijan stirred up unrest in Iran's border region and they were forced to cut back on all of it for their own internal issues.
So that is what Armenia's poor leadership won their people; a violent Azerbaijan, a distant Russia, a pissed Turkey, and a tied down ally in Iran. Say what you want about the past relations between Turks and Armenians, but the Armenian leadership caused this problem, they made the problem worse, and then they got their shit shoved in when it turned out reality did not meet their expectations.
The Armenians are right to be straight pissed at their leadership. They'll be lucky to escape with their skin.
gral
Well-known member
I see I didn't make it clear, when I went for a short answer. I don't think Putin started it. I do think Putin saw an opportunity when this started.
I disagree wholeheartedly. When Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian helicopter, they immediately apologized to Russia, the families, and made immediate compensation payments to said families. That's not to say that the Turks are entirely happy with what the Russians did during this war, but on the whole Russia comes out better.
Russia promised to not intervene in the war for the contested territory, declaring that it did not recognize the region as Armenian space. It only intervened when Turkey pressed to hard and when weapons were fired at Armenia proper. And while the Azerbaijani probably did not appreciate that, they probably did appreciate that Russia went no further. And in the aftermath of the war, Azerbaijan is going to feel gracious in victory.
The fact that Russia has peace troops in the region shows that both powers trust Russia to act as the middleman between the two.
No, the last government made the colossal mistake of alienating Russia. And Russia has made it very, very clear on exactly what that wins them; loss of territory and prestige. And in some cases, their lives. No, the next government will entirely blame the last government for its incompetence and cowardice. Doing otherwise will not weaken Russia's hand, it will strengthen it. Because no western power is either willing or able to push into the region to help them.
Azerbaijan has shown it's entirely willing to attack their homeland. If pressed, they might even invade.
Turkey is backing Azerbaijan.
Iran can only do so much without causing a revolution on their northern border and they're already primarily engaged on their western front with Saudi Arabia. Atop of that, Iran's economy is in shambles between Wuhan and US sanctions.
Russia is Armenia's only option left. Armenia is further in Russian hands than when it started this war.
The region is actually pretty well suited to defensive fighting. The real problem is getting troops and supplies INTO the region. Nor is this hostile territory. The ethnic Armenians know that the only thing stopping Azerbaijan from taking its revenge on Armenian purges is the Russians. And the Azerbaijanis may not prefer it, but Armenia would never agree to Turkey or Iran doing it and Azerbaijan has good relations with the Russians--who in the end, did not back Armenia for the contested territory. I would argue that the Russians come out looking the best in all of this, with their strategic hold on Armenia now being established as complete.
The only power capable of ejecting Russia out of the region would be Turkey. Make no mistake, this was a victory for Turkey too. But right now Turkey is not too interested in a conflict with Russia. More so, Turkey won in this too. Long term more so than Russia, but short term is probably going to be the focus of their government; Azerbaijan retook lost territory, Armenia was humiliated on the world stage, the Russians are committed to one more strategic space (one that doesn't even threaten Turk interests, but rather supports it at the moment), and Turkey's leadership gets a large boost in popularity for having aided their distant kin and allies.
The really big losers are actually Armenia and Iran.
I wouldn't call it a total Russian win, but it's actually the best result that Putin could have expected. Keeping the previous status quo would have been better, but this is the second best thing. It does give the advantage of making Russia appeal like a more honest dealer in the eyes of Azerbaijan, Armenia as I've said has no choice but to move closer to Russia.
Eh, not total victory. But the best possible scenario for Russia played out. The real casualty for Russia though, I think, is that they had to punish Turkey. Turkey could not have been too happy with that. Still, Turkey might be happy enough with the outcome and the internal support this will grant the government that they might be willing to set it aside.
For me, Turkey, Russia, and Azerbaijan are all winners here, even if it didn't go exactly as they wanted it to go.
And Armenai and Iran are the losers.
paulobrito
Well-known member
I bet good money that Russia gets their hands on the downed Turkish and Israeli drones.
D
Deleted member
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The Russians hold the passes over the Caucasus in Ossetia; if Putin gave the order they would be in Yerevan in a week. However, the military occupation of Georgia by Russia would increase the sanctions regime. Still, that is a real threat and neither Turkler nor the Azeris could stop it. The Russian troops are actually coming in through Iran, and the Iranians know they need Russian support for their own efforts in the mid-east.
If Azerbaijan threatens the Russian peacekeepers, as a measure less than a fully invasion, Russia could, at will, destroy the Azeri oil industry in the Caspian, and shut down the entire Azeri economy.
But Putin has no interest in that escalation if it can be avoided.
Turkey and Russia are playing complicated games with each other over that part of the world, and also Syria, Libya and some other less localized ones.
Armenian government being replaced is a win for Russia. The current one Russia was not happy with, so the lackluster support is probably intended.
They can blame Russia or not, but that doesn't change the fact that they need it.
Peacekeepers mean that they get hands on influence on the situation on the border in the future, and a show of world influence "for peace". Also don't forget that its pretty much impossible for these peacekeepers to end up fighting both sides at the same time, so cooperation of one of these countries is always assured.
Putin has punished a wayward client state in a painful but in grand scheme of things mostly symbolic way by another's actions while making Russia look like the fair and balanced peacemaker of the region to all other parties involved or uninvolved. What more could he want?
Russia already had to play rough games with Turkey over Syrian border action and Assad, so nothing new there.
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Israel handed russians codes to their drones during georgian war in 2008,and they are friends now.So,Russia arleady have them.
paulobrito
Well-known member
In terms of electronics, 2008 is several generations behind. Is good to see what Israel sells these days.
It's more intriguing knowing that several Israeli-made Azeri drones ended up crashing in Iranian territory during the course of this conflict, in various states of course.
Since they are Putin very close friends,he arleady knew that.
paulobrito
Well-known member
In my language, we have a proverb - friends, friends, business apart.
History Learner
Well-known member
History Learner
Well-known member
I knew it was unlikely, but in my wildest dreams I was hoping the Armenians would win; marching on Baku would've been awesome but a status quo ante bellum was at least preferable to what has happened. I honestly feel so bad for them, the last few centuries in particular have been terrible for them.
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Deleted member 88
Guest
I think Armenia badly miscalculated even if the Azeris and Turks initiated the war itself. They seemed to assume they’d either do better on the battlefield or they’d get more international support.
I don’t feel particularly sympathetic to the current Armenian government, it seemed to have made a lot of bad decisions, and poorly considered diplomatic maneuvers. I am sympathetic to the Armenian armed forces and people definitely though.They don’t deserve this humiliating defeat.