United States Biden administration policies and actions - megathread

[posh-goofiness]

That is what I am getting at.
People think "We have reason to defend Taiwan, not Ukraine"
It sure doesn't seem like it

The difference between Taiwan and Ukraine seems obvious to me but maybe I'm missing something. Taiwan manufactures some pretty critical microchips. Like... there's basically 3 CPU, 2GPU, and maybe 4 RAM manufacturers of any consequence. They ALL buy from Samsung and TSMC. (Global Foundaries is a joke.)If Taiwan goes, we are super mega ultra FUCKED because all China needs to do to cripple us is start fucking with TSMC.

In contrast, Ukraine has been the most recent iteration of US interventionism in a country that is happy to take our money while simultaneously contributing to the corruption and graft of our leaders. What does Ukraine actually give us? What do we lose (I don't mean nebulous "US interests" I mean tangible trade goods) if Ukraine goes? In my (inexpert) view... nothing.

 

[LordsFire]

The difference between Taiwan and Ukraine seems obvious to me but maybe I'm missing something. Taiwan manufactures some pretty critical microchips. Like... there's basically 3 CPU, 2GPU, and maybe 4 RAM manufacturers of any consequence. They ALL buy from Samsung and TSMC. (Global Foundaries is a joke.)If Taiwan goes, we are super mega ultra FUCKED because all China needs to do to cripple us is start fucking with TSMC.

If China invades Taiwan, the odds of them getting the foundries intact are very low. The odds of them also getting the skilled workforce that runs them is even lower. This is probably part of why they're hesitant to actually go for it.

If Taiwan is invaded, the almost-certain result, is that microchip manufacture relocates back to the USA, because there is simply no safer place in the world for doing such. Odds are also good that new foundries would be set up near some small city, where entrenched corrupt city and state politics would have a harder time messing with them.

It'd actually probably benefit the US in the long run if that happened, but for 3-5 years, all cutting-edge chip manufacturing would be completely borked.

 

[49ersfootball]

This is perfectly sensible. Giving Russia a free hand in Ukraine is geopolitical suicide because, alongside endangering Eastern Europe, you've all but invited the Chinese to invade Taiwan.

I am 100% staunch supporter of Taiwan & Ukraine.

 

[49ersfootball]

If China invades Taiwan, the odds of them getting the foundries intact are very low. The odds of them also getting the skilled workforce that runs them is even lower. This is probably part of why they're hesitant to actually go for it.

If Taiwan is invaded, the almost-certain result, is that microchip manufacture relocates back to the USA, because there is simply no safer place in the world for doing such. Odds are also good that new foundries would be set up near some small city, where entrenched corrupt city and state politics would have a harder time messing with them.

It'd actually probably benefit the US in the long run if that happened, but for 3-5 years, all cutting-edge chip manufacturing would be completely borked.

NK will plot to invade Republic of Korea sooner or later.

 

[LordsFire]

NK will plot to invade Republic of Korea sooner or later.

They never stopped plotting to do so. The question is if they will act.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

What does Ukraine actually give us? What do we lose (I don't mean nebulous "US interests" I mean tangible trade goods) if Ukraine goes? In my (inexpert) view... nothing.

Well, we'd lose nothing. However, if Ukraine goes, then Biden and his family lose a significant source of income.

On the other hand, if Taiwan goes, the Biden family doesn't lose any money b/c China is the country giving them kickbacks through the Hunter connection.

 

[posh-goofiness]

If China invades Taiwan, the odds of them getting the foundries intact are very low. The odds of them also getting the skilled workforce that runs them is even lower. This is probably part of why they're hesitant to actually go for it.

If Taiwan is invaded, the almost-certain result, is that microchip manufacture relocates back to the USA, because there is simply no safer place in the world for doing such. Odds are also good that new foundries would be set up near some small city, where entrenched corrupt city and state politics would have a harder time messing with them.

It'd actually probably benefit the US in the long run if that happened, but for 3-5 years, all cutting-edge chip manufacturing would be completely borked.

You know, that's actually even worse? Fabs are massively expensive and take literally half a decade to construct. They take years to retool from one type of chip to another (for example, RAM to SSD storage).

We wouldn't be fucked for 3-5 years. The world silicon economy would be fucked for 1-2 decades at least.

Edit: I think people really underestimate just how bad this sort of thing would be. The digital economy would come to a halt within 5 years. Cloud infrastructure refreshes dead, supercomputing updates dead, military hardware updates dead, cars, appliances, consumer computing, ISP edge devices, ISP core gateways, all the little pieces of infrastructure that get regularly updated dead.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Samsung is contracting to build a plant in TX, and I believe Intel is building two in Ohio I think. So it won't be that long because we're already bringing that capability to us. Down time, if it went to shit RIGHT NOW, would be around 2 years.

Intel plans new chip factories in Ohio | Popular Science (popsci.com)
Samsung announces $17 billion chip plant in Texas (cnbc.com)

EDIT: I'm a US supporter so not really worried about world silicon economy as long as we can support our own infrastucture in the short term.

 

[Doomsought]

This is one of the reasons that I am enthusiastic about nanoscale vacuum transistors. They don't need rare earth elements to work.

 

[posh-goofiness]

Samsung is contracting to build a plant in TX, and I believe Intel is building two in Ohio I think. So it won't be that long because we're already bringing that capability to us. Down time, if it went to shit RIGHT NOW, would be around 2 years.

Intel plans new chip factories in Ohio | Popular Science (popsci.com)
Samsung announces $17 billion chip plant in Texas (cnbc.com)

EDIT: I'm a US supporter so not really worried about world silicon economy as long as we can support our own infrastucture in the short term.

So am I. But at the same time, I think we're the biggest buyers of silicon. Amazon alone accounts for a truly massive amount of silicon and their biggest regions are US based.

 

[Bacle]

They've successfully pressured Breyer into announcing retirement from SCOTUS it seems.

Now we will have another SCOTUS seat battle near/before the midterms, depending on when exactly he steps down.

Others are point out this means Manchin and Sinema effectively get to pick the next SCOTUS judge.

 

[killerofa23]

Whelp dems just made a major misstep they got a Supreme Court fight (Breyer just retired) and they need machin and sinemas votes and they just spent how long beating them up?

 

[Lord Sovereign]

They've successfully pressured Breyer into announcing retirement from SCOTUS it seems.

Now we will have another SCOTUS seat battle near/before the midterms, depending on when exactly he steps down.

Others are point out this means Manchin and Sinema effectively get to pick the next SCOTUS judge.

I mean, given how unpopular they are so far, and how galvanised the MAGA crowd, making SCOTUS a midterms issue might not be the best idea.

 

[Typhonis]

No one ever said they were smart.

 

[Cherico]

No one ever said they were smart.

sufficient arrogance is indisguishable from stupidity.

 

[Sobek]

I wonder what sort of retarded pick they will push. Will they try and play a pure appearance game and get someone based solely on skin color and vagina? Or will they push someone with complete ideological loyalty to The Cause?

 

[killerofa23]

I wonder what sort of retarded pick they will push. Will they try and play a pure appearance game and get someone based solely on skin color and vagina? Or will they push someone with complete ideological loyalty to The Cause?

I bet AZ dems are regretting censuring sinema right now

 

[Captain X]

Fair enough; but what other options do they have at this point? The Donbass and Crimea regions will never accept the rule of those currently in power in Kiev, who's international backers have since gotten cold feet after it became obvious that Russia wasn't nearly as much of a pushover as they assumed when they first supported the coup (and that America has clearly become far weaker).

If they want to be Russian so bad, they can leave and go to Russia. Otherwise it's every bit as much of a blatant land grab as Hitler annexing Sudetenland.

 

[Terthna]

If they want to be Russian so bad, they can leave and go to Russia. Otherwise it's every bit as much of a blatant land grab as Hitler annexing Sudetenland.

That's exactly what Crimea did; except you and everyone else with a deep-seated hatred for Russia keep insisting it wasn't legitimate, because they took their land with them. Donbas, meanwhile, want to retake their country; which honestly I can't see ever happening, seeing as the cultural divide has widened to the point where there is nothing that unifies them with western Ukraine anymore, so I agree that they should simply emulate Crimea and leave.

 

[Tiamat]

I wonder what sort of retarded pick they will push. Will they try and play a pure appearance game and get someone based solely on skin color and vagina? Or will they push someone with complete ideological loyalty to The Cause?

Stacey Abrams…???

Hey, don’t be surprised, it might happen…