Israel versus Palestine: 2021 Edition

[GoldRanger]

The Gazans sifting through the ruins after their "great victory".

Notice the impressive journalist to rescue worker ratio. That's the story of what's Gaza and the Palestinians are all about right there.

 

[Arch Dornan]

How's Lod? I keep hearing it was where the city was integrating Jews and Arabs together and got fucking crazy.

What won is the status quo.

 

[Husky_Khan]

The Gazans sifting through the ruins after their "great victory".

Notice the impressive journalist to rescue worker ratio. That's the story of what's Gaza and the Palestinians are all about right there.

That floor looks like it could be in danger of collapsing...

 

[GoldRanger]

How's Lod? I keep hearing it was where the city was integrating Jews and Arabs together and got fucking crazy.

What won is the status quo.

The police slowly managed to restore control. Jerusalem, however, is sparking up again.

 

[History Learner]

I rather question your reading comprehension in that case, though as you apparently didn't read the article but instead did a search for a few specific words, I should perhaps instead question how you are qualified to say "nothing I cited shows X," especially when the bulk of the article is about X.

From the article:

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion but honestly nothing in that articles proves your original allegation, which was this:

IT was verified years ago by a former AP press member that the AP press was working with Hamas and reporters who didn't toe the line and report Hamas' story got killed. Consequently it's pretty much impossible to get evidence outside of the IDF, you're literally asking for either Hamas or people Hamas is holding at gunpoint to corroborate with Israel.

Nothing within the cited bits show anything to suggest the AP is working with Hamas; indeed, it rather contradicts such, both in general and in this particular instance we are discussing. Case in point:

Hamas fighters would burst into the AP’s Gaza bureau and threaten the staff—and the AP wouldn’t report it. (This also happened.)

Beyond the fact the author in question makes several claims he is unable to provide any evidence for-beyond claiming it happened and stating multiple sources he never elaborates on-why, exactly, would the AP have to be threatened if they are working with Hamas? Why would the AP station members in Gaza if they were not onboard with this? Specific to the matter at hand, why exactly would Hamas fighters have to burst into the AP's bureau....if they were already in the building, as the IDF claims? None of this makes sense when subjected to basic logical thinking.

Further, as someone else pointed out on another forum:

One big thing to note is that the IDF knows when they are killing multi-generational families because of the fact that the Oslo Accords mandate the Palestinian interior ministry send the Israeli government copies of family records. And we know they're actually getting them because the Israeli side transmits back registry approval for border crossing identity cards. This is the primary reason that if the IDF actually bothers to warn the family they know how to call their direct phoneline to tell them "hey we're going to blow up your house".

If Hamas was actually in the building, it would be very easy for the IDF to prove it beyond "bro just trust us" type responses. Further, it just doesn't make much sense as an action given they warned the occupants of the building ahead of time; kind of defeats the purpose of the strike if the Hamas members evacuate with everyone else, no?

 

[History Learner]

Back to the status quo?

The status quo is dead and, honestly, Hamas-as a lot of commentary in both Israel and the West is noting-did win a pretty convincing victory.

It costs Hamas a few hundred dollars to make one of their rockets, but a single Tamir costs several hundred thousand to the IDF. Although Hamas has not yet shown the capability to overwhelm the Iron Dome, it has shown it is making strides to do so; they have fired more rockets now then they did in 2014 in a shorter amount of time. Eventually, they will reach the capability that the IDF interception rate will begin to decline and Israeli casualties will start to mount. 2006 broke the willingness of the IDF to invade Lebanon, 2014 did the same for Gaza. Now it's a war where the Gazans can launch rockets all day and the IDF has to respond with air strikes, because it is politically untenable to send in the ground troops. Hezbollah and groups in the West Bank have taken notice of this, and tensions have risen to the point we've seen scattered, isolated violence on those axis. Within Israel itself, we've also seen widespread ethnic violence between the Arabs and Jews, on a scale not seen since at least the 1970s, if not 1948. Abbas has been severely weakened politically in the West Bank, and now Assad as well as Iran are making overtures for a joint Sunni-Shia Axis against Israel.

In short, it's a death of a thousand cuts. Yes, superior IDF firepower has been sufficient to engender casualty ratios favorable to the Israelis but that does nothing to alter the growing political and geo-strategic balance at play anymore than it has for the U.S. in Afghanistan.

 

[GoldRanger]

The status quo is dead and, honestly, Hamas-as a lot of commentary in both Israel and the West is noting-did win a pretty convincing victory.

It costs Hamas a few hundred dollars to make one of their rockets, but a single Tamir costs several hundred thousand to the IDF. Although Hamas has not yet shown the capability to overwhelm the Iron Dome, it has shown it is making strides to do so; they have fired more rockets now then they did in 2014 in a shorter amount of time. Eventually, they will reach the capability that the IDF interception rate will begin to decline and Israeli casualties will start to mount. 2006 broke the willingness of the IDF to invade Lebanon, 2014 did the same for Gaza. Now it's a war where the Gazans can launch rockets all day and the IDF has to respond with air strikes, because it is politically untenable to send in the ground troops. Hezbollah and groups in the West Bank have taken notice of this, and tensions have risen to the point we've seen scattered, isolated violence on those axis. Within Israel itself, we've also seen widespread ethnic violence between the Arabs and Jews, on a scale not seen since at least the 1970s, if not 1948. Abbas has been severely weakened politically in the West Bank, and now Assad as well as Iran are making overtures for a joint Sunni-Shia Axis against Israel.

In short, it's a death of a thousand cuts. Yes, superior IDF firepower has been sufficient to engender casualty ratios favorable to the Israelis but that does nothing to alter the growing political and geo-strategic balance at play anymore than it has for the U.S. in Afghanistan.

Improvement of capabilities (and speculation about future improvement, especially with the assumption that Israel's defenses are not also improving) are not proof of a military victory, they're facts that all of us knew way before this conflict has erupted.

Comparing the costs of Hamas and Iron Dome missiles is also a laughable metric. All around the world western military forces use expensive munitions to fight against primitive guerilla tactics. This fact is irrelevant to the question of victory. Israel can more than afford it's Iron Dome missiles, don't you worry (especially with American aid).

It's also untrue that it's "politically untenable" for Israel to invade Gaza. It's a last option, but I wouldn't be so sure Israel wouldn't go for it if pushed. The reason it didn't is because the surprisingly light casualties have afforded it the political flexibility to withhold its ground forces. If Hamas managed to inflict meaningful casualties, the story would have been a very different one. Same goes for Lebanon. An assumption that Israel is completely deterred from using its ground forces would be a very dangerous one for both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Finally, Hamas has not shown any ability to penetrate the Iron Dome defenses, just the opposite. Iron Dome has proven to be able to maintain its impressive 90% interception rate even during massive simultaneous salvos. The fact that 10% of the rockets have managed to penetrate and inflict light casualties is not a Hamas victory, it's literally something that's written on the Iron Dome's manufacturer's brochure.

Now let's examine the actual achievements of both sides.

12 Israeli dead, around 250 Gazan dead.

Tens of kilometers of Hamas tunnels are in ruins.

Dozens of senior Hamas members and engineers dead.

A lot of destruction in Gaza, very limited destruction in Israel, from which it is expected to recover very quickly.

All attempts by Hamas to launch surprise AT ambushes, attacks by sea, and attacks by UAV, all have failed miserably.

Attempts by Hamas to involve Hezbollah and open a second front on Israel have met with utter failure.

In the diplomatic arena, other than standard anti-Israel protests we've always seen during these kinds of operations, a surprising number of countries have pledged explicit support for Israel, such as Austria and the Czech Republic, both of whom flew the Israeli flag over their parliament in support of Israel. Even Arab countries have not made that much noise over the war other than limp-wristed lip service condemnations (Turkey's Erdogan is basically the only leader other than Iran's to really lay into Israel over this conflict).

And most important of all: Israel has not walked back its decision regarding the contested neighbourhood of Jerusalem, and has not withdrawn police forces from the Al-Aqsa mosque, who are dispersing riots even as we speak. These, I remind you, have been the reasons Hamas has started this war in the first place.

I think this is a very solid Israeli victory. It's the best possible realistic outcome for Israel, other than outright toppling Hamas, and that has not been an Israeli goal this time (and is not possible without a dangerous land invasion into Gaza).

 

[History Learner]

Improvement of capabilities (and speculation about future improvement, especially with the assumption that Israel's defenses are not also improving) are not proof of a military victory, they're facts that all of us knew way before this conflict has erupted.

Comparing the costs of Hamas and Iron Dome missiles is also a laughable metric. All around the world western military forces use expensive munitions to fight against primitive guerilla tactics. This fact is irrelevant to the question of victory. Israel can more than afford it's Iron Dome missiles, don't you worry (especially with American aid).

Finally, Hamas has not shown any ability to penetrate the Iron Dome defenses, just the opposite. Iron Dome has proven to be able to maintain its impressive 90% interception rate even during massive simultaneous salvos. The fact that 10% of the rockets have managed to penetrate and inflict light casualties is not a Hamas victory, it's literally something that's written on the Iron Dome's manufacturer's brochure.

First, you are welcome to cite anywhere in my posts I said military improvements alone constitute a victory. Rather, I based my statements on the facts acknowledged by non Arab sources; namely, that Hamas has discredited Fatah pretty heavily through this, for one key example.

Specific to the points made, you tacitly conceded at the end of this post exactly what I was saying; Israeli options are increasingly limited. 2014 broke them of the desire to put ground troops into Gaza and in 2021 they were forced to rely upon airstrikes....which utterly failed to dent the capabilities of Hamas to sustain action. Case in point:

In 2006, Hezbullah fired 4,000 rockets in 34 days.
In 2014, Gaza fired 4,564 rockets in 50 days.
In 2021, Gaza fired 4,360 rockets were fired in just 11 days.

So if ground invasions are out and air-strikes aren't cutting it, what exactly does that leave Israel with? The Iron Dome does have a 90% interception rate, sure, but you are missing the point there in that it is far cheaper and easier for Hamas to sustain its rocket barrages then it is for Israel to maintain it's counter. That's basic logistics and attrition warfare, which also explains why Bibi even agreed to an armistice and the U.S. immediately was announcing it was going to resupply them; it's expensive and hard to keep the Iron Dome operating under such intensities. Even then, the system does have a saturation point at which it's ability to achieve that 90% doesn't happen because it's been exhausted of munitions or is overloaded with targets.

Now let's examine the actual achievements of both sides.

12 Israeli dead, around 250 Gazan dead.

Tens of kilometers of Hamas tunnels are in ruins.

Dozens of senior Hamas members and engineers dead.

A lot of destruction in Gaza, very limited destruction in Israel, from which it is expected to recover very quickly.

All attempts by Hamas to launch surprise AT ambushes, attacks by sea, and attacks by UAV, all have failed miserably.

Vietnam, Afghanistan and the list goes on; anybody looking solely at body counts and infrastructure destruction (taking Israeli claims at face value at that) really doesn't have a clue about modern COIN, given the specific limitations on it. Rather, what you need to be paying attention to is the political developments I cited, in particular-and you have touched on this yourself-the fact there was internal rioting by Israeli Arabs and Abbas had his authority severely undermined in the West Bank.

We are both in agreement that the IDF can only undertake ground operations in Gaza at a high cost. I have also pointed out, above, that the Iron Dome can be overwhelmed either through attrition of its own munitions or being target oversaturated. How, exactly, are we expecting the IDF to fair in a situation where it is not only facing Gaza but also the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon and a fifth column in Israel itself? As I said, a death by a thousand cuts, even not factoring in the issue of Assad and Iran showing interest in joining the party.

For another, final datapoint, according to Yedioth Aharonot the initial estimates of the Ministry of Finance indicate that economic losses for this action amount to 7 billion shekels (2.2 billion USD) or 0.5% of GDP. This is twice what Hamas inflicted in 2014, despite only 11 days of action compared to over 50 last time.

Attempts by Hamas to involve Hezbollah and open a second front on Israel have met with utter failure.

Would come as a hell of a shock to all the Jews in Israel that had their houses burned this week as well as the IDF itself given they have engaged some rockets and fired counter-artillery on the Lebanese border. Admittedly, not the same commitment as Hamas, but recent actions by Hezbollah and Iran show they are now getting serious, given the example set by Hamas.

In the diplomatic arena, other than standard anti-Israel protests we've always seen during these kinds of operations, a surprising number of countries have pledged explicit support for Israel, such as Austria and the Czech Republic, both of whom flew the Israeli flag over their parliament in support of Israel. Even Arab countries have not made that much noise over the war other than limp-wristed lip service condemnations (Turkey's Erdogan is basically the only leader other than Iran's to really lay into Israel over this conflict).

How much military aid and divisions have Austria and the Czech Republic sent Israel? This is 2000s-era Bushism platititudes that are meaningless in the strategic context Israel faces. How about the fact that everyone on the UNSC-sans the United States-were in favor of condemning Israel?

And most important of all: Israel has not walked back its decision regarding the contested neighbourhood of Jerusalem, and has not withdrawn police forces from the Al-Aqsa mosque, who are dispersing riots even as we speak. These, I remind you, have been the reasons Hamas has started this war in the first place.

I think this is a very solid Israeli victory. It's the best possible realistic outcome for Israel, other than outright toppling Hamas, and that has not been an Israeli goal this time (and is not possible without a dangerous land invasion into Gaza).

That's not what's being reported:

In a potentially damaging development for the Israeli leader, the Palestinian militants claimed Netanyahu had agreed to halt further Israeli actions at the Al Aqsa Mosque and to call off the planned evictions of Palestinians in the nearby Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. An Egyptian official said only that tensions in Jerusalem “will be addressed.”​

 

[Zachowon]

First, you are welcome to cite anywhere in my posts I said military improvements alone constitute a victory. Rather, I based my statements on the facts acknowledged by non Arab sources; namely, that Hamas has discredited Fatah pretty heavily through this, for one key example.

Specific to the points made, you tacitly conceded at the end of this post exactly what I was saying; Israeli options are increasingly limited. 2014 broke them of the desire to put ground troops into Gaza and in 2021 they were forced to rely upon airstrikes....which utterly failed to dent the capabilities of Hamas to sustain action. Case in point:

In 2006, Hezbullah fired 4,000 rockets in 34 days.
In 2014, Gaza fired 4,564 rockets in 50 days.
In 2021, Gaza fired 4,360 rockets were fired in just 11 days.

So if ground invasions are out and air-strikes aren't cutting it, what exactly does that leave Israel with? The Iron Dome does have a 90% interception rate, sure, but you are missing the point there in that it is far cheaper and easier for Hamas to sustain its rocket barrages then it is for Israel to maintain it's counter. That's basic logistics and attrition warfare, which also explains why Bibi even agreed to an armistice and the U.S. immediately was announcing it was going to resupply them; it's expensive and hard to keep the Iron Dome operating under such intensities. Even then, the system does have a saturation point at which it's ability to achieve that 90% doesn't happen because it's been exhausted of munitions or is overloaded with targets.



Vietnam, Afghanistan and the list goes on; anybody looking solely at body counts and infrastructure destruction (taking Israeli claims at face value at that) really doesn't have a clue about modern COIN, given the specific limitations on it. Rather, what you need to be paying attention to is the political developments I cited, in particular-and you have touched on this yourself-the fact there was internal rioting by Israeli Arabs and Abbas had his authority severely undermined in the West Bank.

We are both in agreement that the IDF can only undertake ground operations in Gaza at a high cost. I have also pointed out, above, that the Iron Dome can be overwhelmed either through attrition of its own munitions or being target oversaturated. How, exactly, are we expecting the IDF to fair in a situation where it is not only facing Gaza but also the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon and a fifth column in Israel itself? As I said, a death by a thousand cuts, even not factoring in the issue of Assad and Iran showing interest in joining the party.



Would come as a hell of a shock to all the Jews in Israel that had their houses burned this week as well as the IDF itself given they have engaged some rockets and fired counter-artillery on the Lebanese border. Admittedly, not the same commitment as Hamas, but recent actions by Hezbollah and Iran show they are now getting serious, given the example set by Hamas.



How much military aid and divisions have Austria and the Czech Republic sent Israel? This is 2000s-era Bushism platititudes that are meaningless in the strategic context Israel faces. How about the fact that everyone on the UNSC-sans the United States-were in favor of condemning Israel?



That's not what's being reported:

In a potentially damaging development for the Israeli leader, the Palestinian militants claimed Netanyahu had agreed to halt further Israeli actions at the Al Aqsa Mosque and to call off the planned evictions of Palestinians in the nearby Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. An Egyptian official said only that tensions in Jerusalem “will be addressed.”​

COIN with the IDF is diffrent from COIN the western nations are fighting.

Also, the Iron Dome is the best way to target high reaching and intercept higher up.
If Isreal added systems that target them the lower they get it would be even more effective to target missles that are past the Iron Dome.

For instance. A CRAM

 

[History Learner]

COIN with the IDF is diffrent from COIN the western nations are fighting.

Also, the Iron Dome is the best way to target high reaching and intercept higher up.
If Isreal added systems that target them the lower they get it would be even more effective to target missles that are past the Iron Dome.

For instance. A CRAM

Regardless of whether or not the IDF has a different COIN method, it's clear they are failing to get results with it anymore than the U.S. has been able to as of late. They have been repeatedly kicked out of Gaza and so too have been forced out of Lebanon; not a good track record there. As for Iron Dome, sure you can increase it's effectiveness....but so too can the Palestinians increase their own counters and such improvements you suggest do nothing to counter it's main weaknesses. If you have the capability to only engage, say, 5,000 rockets due to targeting abilities and/or only having 5,000 Tamirs then if Hamas launches 6,000 you're going to see at least 1,000 of said missiles get through even assuming a 100% interception rate with only one Tamir being used per intercept.

 

[S'task]

Would come as a hell of a shock to all the Jews in Israel that had their houses burned this week as well as the IDF itself given they have engaged some rockets and fired counter-artillery on the Lebanese border. Admittedly, not the same commitment as Hamas, but recent actions by Hezbollah and Iran show they are now getting serious, given the example set by Hamas.

. . . You do know @GoldRanger is a Jew living in Israel, right? He's probably much more aware of the actual status on the ground and attitude of the Israeli public than anyone else here is capable of.

 

[GoldRanger]

That's not what's being reported:

In a potentially damaging development for the Israeli leader, the Palestinian militants claimed Netanyahu had agreed to halt further Israeli actions at the Al Aqsa Mosque and to call off the planned evictions of Palestinians in the nearby Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. An Egyptian official said only that tensions in Jerusalem “will be addressed.”

That is a Hamas claim that not only has been specifically denied by Israeli leadership, but is also visibly not happening on the ground. It's just Hamas trying to save face from this disastrous (for them) war.

As for the rest of your post, I'll go over it later, but suffice to say that your analysis is beyond wrong.

 

[History Learner]

. . . You do know @GoldRanger is a Jew living in Israel, right? He's probably much more aware of the actual status on the ground and attitude of the Israeli public than anyone else here is capable of.

It would come as shock to everyone involved that a civilian Israeli Jew knows more about the opinions and thought process of Hezbollah's leadership, beyond the fact that's a pretty obvious logical fallacy in of itself. Particularly given I was literally able to cite news stories to the contrary, no less.

 

[GoldRanger]

And now Israel's minister of defense confidently claims that from now on every minor violation by Hamas will be met with overwhelming firepower, unlike the previous status quo, under which the occasional Hamas rocket was answered with mere symbolic bombing of empty Hamas positions.

And he's also conditioned rebuilding Gaza on Hamas returning the bodies of IDF soldiers it captured during the 2014 war.

Some Hamas victory...

 

[GoldRanger]

It would come as shock to everyone involved that a civilian Israeli Jew knows more about the opinions and thought process of Hezbollah's leadership, beyond the fact that's a pretty obvious logical fallacy in of itself. Particularly given I was literally able to cite news stories to the contrary, no less.

The fact that I live here makes me more familiar with the subject matter than you.

For example, you didn't seem to have noticed that Hezbollah wasn't the one who fired the rockets from Lebanon. Palestinian militants in Lebanon were the ones who launched those rockets, and those were just a handful that failed to cause any damage, a symbolic gesture. It's a pretty basic fact that someone who actually followed events closely couldn't have missed.

 

[Husky_Khan]

How much military aid and divisions have Austria and the Czech Republic sent Israel? This is 2000s-era Bushism platititudes that are meaningless in the strategic context Israel faces. How about the fact that everyone on the UNSC-sans the United States-were in favor of condemning Israel?

Wow that is almost unprecedented. The United States has only vetoed anti-Israeli UN actions over fifty times over the past fifty years! How many divisions is the United Nations Security Council sending to Gaza? Will the United Nations Human Rights Council be providing the air force squadrons or the naval flotillas?

Strategically Israel is in a better place then it has been in ages. Thanks to the Abraham Accords its beginning to normalize relations with many of its influential neighbors. Iraq is Saddam Hussein free. Egypt had a brief flirtation with the Muslim Brotherhood that thankfully ended promptly and Syria ended up hitting itself repeatedly thanks to its Civil War. Now Iran has replaced the Arab States as Hamas' and Islamic Jihad's main backer (though noble Qatar is still sending them sweet Martyr bucks), and Iran is still (for now, we'll see what Biden does) having its economy languish thanks to sanctions and spending millions on supporting Hezbollah and Syria in their efforts to reimpose Assad's dictatorship in Syria and thousands of Hezbollah fighters have been killed up in Syria as well.

Turkey and Iran are probably Israel's largest foreign policy critics and both are at odds with each other (for the moment) on a variety of issues including the ongoing conflict in Syria.

Also did anyone notice the mobs of Lebanese locals attacking pro-Assad Syrians in Lebanon the past few days. Apparently there's parts of of Lebanon still sour on Assad's Mukhabarat or Secret Police and SAA shenanigans

 

[Bear Ribs]

Tommy Vietor, former Obama staffer, has confirmed that Hamas was in the AP building via his personal contacts. This is extremely convincing proof given that he's highly critical of Israel and not at all one of their supporters so he wouldn't be saying this unless he was absolutely certain.

 

[KilroywasNOTHere]

I'm likely to get flack from the jewish community here, but I think America needs to NOT get involved this time around. The US has it's own problems right now and anytime we do get involved it has a track record of making the problem worse in the long run.

 

[Bacle]

I'm likely to get flack from the jewish community here, but I think America needs to NOT get involved this time around. The US has it's own problems right now and anytime we do get involved it has a track record of making the problem worse in the long run.

Why would we need too do anything we aren't already doing?

Israel is fully capable of destroying Hamas without the US needing to do anything more than sell them a few more LGBs or interceptor parts.

 

[GoldRanger]

And here you go, here's more of Hamas' "victory":

Following Gaza ceasefire, Temple Mount opened to Jews for first time in 20 days

Clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian rioters at flashpoint site on Jerusalem Day immediately preceded barrage of rockets from Gaza on the city, and 11-day conflict

www.timesofisrael.com

Jerusalem’s Temple Mount complex was opened to Jews Sunday morning for the first time in 20 days, amid simmering tensions at the holy site that played a major role in sparking hostilities with the Hamas terror group in Gaza and violence across Israel.