Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

planefag

A Flying Bundle of Sticks
Russians beginning the first cauldron now that the fight for the heights of Popansa is done.

In a war that's been defined by indirect long-range fires spotted by ubiquitous aerial drone surveiliance, the man with a 100 foot elevation advantage is KING!

This sealed the fate of the Mi-8 with UkAF paratroopers

MI-8, you say? ZOOM AND ENHANCE!



Wow, isn't that funny. The tail rotor is clearly on the left side. Hmm. Almost like it isn't an MI-8 "Hip," but the much newer, more powerful and modernized version, the MI-17, as even Wikipedia can tell you. Here's recent imagery of a Ukrainian MI-8 conducting rocket attacks, flying over the cameraman close enough to make the ID roundels very obvious. Notice which side the rotor is on. Hint - not the left side. And last I heard the US welched on their promise to send MI-17s originally slated for the Afghanistan air force to Ukraine. Oh, wait, they changed their tune a week later. Of course they still have to deliver them and since there was a big THING about directly flying Polish Fulcrums directly from NATO airspace into Ukraine ~oh my~ a while back that means cramming those MI-17s into C-5A's and flying them into Poland then stacking them on trailers then driving them into country. How many C-5A's have the plane geeks seen heading into Ukraine? None that I've seen, and I follow those plane tracking twitter accounts. Well, on the flip side, five MI-17s were already in Ukraine for servicing work, but as our friendly local vatniks have reminded us, all of Ukraine's aircraft factories have been blown up by Big Bad Russia, so how exactly did they make operational an aircraft their country does not manufacture, that they do not have spare parts for, with all their servicing facilities blown up? Plus, as recently as May 4th ~US Officials~ were telling the media that the total number of MI-17's "sent" to Ukraine are... "five." In other words, the actual fucking operable ones stateside are still stateside.

And just so its clear, the Mi-8 was hit well away from the Helipad on the Island which wasn't even hit by the Su-27 airstrikes preceding this.

Let's compare them viewsheds, eh?





Wow, look at that! Assuming a 6 foot high man (or a vatnik manlet in platform pumps) both the observed LZ and "mUh hElIpAd" are shielded from direct LOS to ThE StrUcTurEs! Not that it makes much difference on a barren fucking rock that measures 0.17km square anyways, but y'know.

If it had been a Russian bird it would have used the Helipad and its troops would not have taken firing positions while others grabbed heavy gear.

So you're telling me that a Ukrainian bird that can hold ~28 men~ showed up on the island, hit the ground and all of three dudes pop out? Presumably an assault force coming to retake the island? And they don't hit the ground with as many infantryman as they can bring, no, they send three dudes to unload what, exactly? You want to see what an actual helo assault under fire looks like? Click here. Note that you see more than three dudes unassing the helicopter and they sure as hell don't start unloading it.

But I don't want to imply that you might be guilty of, say, spouting half-assed armchair analysis, as I am not a Subject Matter Expert. We have military veterans among us on this very board! Gentlemen! Can you please weigh in - is it standard doctrine, when conducting heliborne assault with a medium-heavy lift helicopter with a personnel capacity of 28-32 men, to disembark exactly three men who start unloading cargo first thing? 🤔
 

planefag

A Flying Bundle of Sticks

Megadeath

Well-known member
You're basing that claim on...?
Well, if they're taking losses to the point that BTGs are being rendered inactive and considered for merging, without having their positions overrun or encircled, it stands to reason that they're not able to rotate them out for replenishment and repair, no?
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Well, if they're taking losses to the point that BTGs are being rendered inactive and considered for merging,
That hasn't been actually established, just claimed. Also were they formal BTGs or mission specific formed battle groups?
Lots of claims in this war, not lots of proof. Just like how Russia was supposed to declare total war on victory day or the Makarov was sunk. So far no real evidence that any BTGs have been rendered combat ineffective and merged. As they say military intelligence is an oxymoron.

without having their positions overrun or encircled, it stands to reason that they're not able to rotate them out for replenishment and repair, no?
No? It is actually entirely normal in higher intensity positional warfare that units are rotated on a schedule for rests. In WW1 the usual was about 2 weeks of trench duty before rotating out. You don't leave units on the front line indefinitely if you want them to remain useful. I get the feeling a lot of arm chair generals online really have little understanding of military operations.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik
Ukrainian Half-Giant elects to deploy a Lithuanian made anti-drone Rifle instead of simply reaching up and swatting drones out of the sky.



Cockpit Footage of a Russian Su-25 Reportedly Striking Targets in Popasna near Izyum.



Update on the Mi-8 Helicopter Shot Down Over Snake Island



Russians and Vatniks Cheering the Death of their Own Forces Allegedly.



Lockheed Martin looking to double Javelin Production.


Reportedly Intercepted Phone Call from a Russian Soldier to his Mother Bragging about Looting from Locals and Torturing Ukrainian Prisoners while His Mother Approves and Says She'll Pray For Him.

 

ATP

Well-known member
Back in the real world:


Russians beginning the first cauldron now that the fight for the heights of Popansa is done. If Ukraine makes a stand or not is irrelevant at this point, Lysychansk/Severodonetsk will fall.



Let this be a lesson kids, don't go for Twitter Victories over an Island of little strategic importance aside from being a Coast Guard SAR site. UkAF made a few mistakes, one it had a drone do recon, which meant it had a radiating signal that could be tracked, they had done this for days before hand which also meant the Russians could then hack the live feed as they had enough information to crack the encryption. This sealed the fate of the Mi-8 with UkAF paratroopers who got whacked by a FAB 250 as they took firing positions. Hope the loss of 3 Mi-8s with paratroopers, 2 Su-27s, and several TB-2s plus a Mi-24 were worth it.

And just so its clear, the Mi-8 was hit well away from the Helipad on the Island which wasn't even hit by the Su-27 airstrikes preceding this. If it had been a Russian bird it would have used the Helipad and its troops would not have taken firing positions while others grabbed heavy gear.



Russia continues to use the past glories to maintain control and gain brownie points. So far it is working as there is no insurgency of note after the first 2 weeks.



Serbian Volunteers in their captured Ukrainian T-64. The yellow splotches give it away as a capture.


And they lost a good and loyal pilot for their attempt at a Twitter Victory.

Well at the end of the day, Russia will focus on destroying the Ukrainian Army via firepower attrition while the Ukrainians will focus on winning Twitter Victories that do nothing for the outcome which is a forgone conclusion.


.Please continue delivering soviet propaganda,i really feel nostalgic.Modern media lie,too - but nothing beat old soviet lies.I feel,as if i child again when i read you.

So:
1.Russian would win in Donbass.Great,but when? According to you,they should win 2 months ago.
2.soviet destroyed heli was in fact ukrainian.They attacked island with 28 people? what they were,supermens?
And what next? Moscov was ukrainian cruiser Kiev?
3.There are not russian past glories,BUT SOVIETS.The same soviets,which genocided russians and destroyed Russia.Another proof,that RUSSIA DO NOT LONGER EXIST.
And lack of insurgency - you could not start uprising when you are raped,murdered or imprisoned - and that is how ukrainians live under moscov occupation.
4.Serbian tanks are send to Moscov.So? Poland send more to Ukraine.
5.Moscov do not win on Twitter,and that is why they create propaganda used by you.
6.Outcome is foregone conclusion - i thought the same 2 months ago,but your owners stupidity made me change my mind.If Putin remain the same idiot he is,then Ukraine could win - even if in theory Moscov must win.
Another proof,that kgb colonel should never become tsar.Borys Godunow,who almost destroyed Moscov,was opricznina,too.

But,as you say,back to real world -

They think that moscov pilots bomb fields becouse they do not want kill children,but let be frank - they simply want survive,and attacking ukrainian targets would turn them into charred corpses.
I do not blame them,i would do the same in their shoes.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder


So no mention of mass mobilization, no mention of nuke threats to the West, a weak and false but domestically acceptable olive branch to the west when he brought up western WW2 vets, and promises of taking care of the kids of wounded/lost soldiers.

Methinks Putin has bit off more than he can chew and knows it, so he's trying to protect himself from internal rivals and trying to get the international opinion to soften a bit.

Though I expect most surviving WW2 vets would probably prefer to kill Putin than be at that parade.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik
Pentagon Update on Ukraine Conflict in Brief.



Who says there can't be decency between enemies in War?



A menagerie of the various T-80 tanks Russia has Donated to the Ukrainian Armed forces in the past few months.



First Dutch Volunteer Killed in Ukraine, reportedly from Artillery Fire Near Kharkov.



For the Pun Appreciators here... And those that are fans of two hundred year old buildings burning down due to Russian Military Action...

 

planefag

A Flying Bundle of Sticks
So far no real evidence that any BTGs have been rendered combat ineffective and merged. As they say military intelligence is an oxymoron.

Please note this video showing a BMP-3 with markings from the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment paired with T-80BVs - which aren't operated by any formation of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army. That strongly suggests composite units are in use - i.e. battle-damaged units being merged to make up for casualties. See also T-80BVMs and BTR-82As spotted moving together in Donbas; as the commentator says there are no known Russian units with that combination.

Or he's playing the long game. Slow and steady wins the race. Don't go for sudden quick victories that might trigger US or NATO entry into the war, drag it out and wait for the Western publics to get bored of the war, sick of the expense of it,

Y'mean like that eight-year long war waged by a Russian sock-puppet state? One that involved actual Russian troops on the ground, as admitted by Putin, and since 2015 Russian officers commanding the "separatist" forces directly? Is that not the very definition of a "long game?" And we're supposed to see the full-scale conventional war invasion of 2022, which began with multiple attacks on every front open to the Russians and heavily featured aggressive airborne operations aimed at quickly grabbing forward staging grounds, especially in the attempted decapitation strike on the national capital - as an extension of the long game?

Oh, as for cost, the United States gave Afghanistan 73 billion dollars over the near twenty years it was involved there. To-date, the aid given to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration amounts to... 2 billion dollars. And unlike Afghanistan the taxpayer can see very, very clearly what the return-on-investment is in the form of lots of expensive things - sometimes big expensive things like 12,000 ton missile cruisers - getting blown to hell. So I wouldn't bet on the sympathies of the Western public turning against providing aid and assistance - especially now that the "never again" mantra is being put to the test by the literal piles of murdered civilians from Russian-occupied areas.

and be more focused on the accumulating economic problems at home. That is already starting. Stagflation, market collapse, political unrest at home, etc. is all building in the west.

Y'know, we've done this all before. The cloistered, cut-off Soviet economy only working within its own bloc behind the Iron Curtain while predicting the imminent demise of the West as their uncontrolled economy was cratered by greedy capitalists and their internecine political tensions caused unrest and disunity.

You may recall this ended with the complete social and economic collapse of the Soviet Union.

As it is Russia is already making more money from the new economic trade system than they were before the war by exporting less and the Ruble is stronger than it was before the war.

So about that - as explained wonderfully by the youtuber Perun (who actually has an Economics degree) the "strength" of the Ruble is completely artificial, the result of unsustainable government interventions to prop it up. (Here is a link to the actual timestamp in the video.)

US international relationships are falling apart, see how the Saudis are basically assisting the Chinese-Russia economic war against the US to the point that the US is starting to turn on them:

The Saudis doing a Saudi and forcing the Biden administration to cease its concerted efforts to sabotage and destroy the Bush/Trump administration's efforts to strengthen US domestic energy industry is a good thing for the United States. Remember when Trump said Germany was Russia's captive due to energy dependence, and offered to sell Germany American natural gas to provide them an alternate source of supply? Well Germany's come around; they're currently building a floating LP terminal in record time that should be done by the end of the year (which matches timeframes advertised by companies that build floating LP terminals, 1-3 years, esp. when considering the national government putting its weight behind it.) That's just one of two terminals that will be built, by the way. So the Saudis forcing the current clown-car in Washington to cease doing the enemy's work for them is important because US natgas production will be key to combating Russian coercion tactics in the future.

This is siege warfare, militarily, politically, and economically.

Which plays directly against the interests of Russia, now that it has begun a hot war as a direct belligerent. The longer it drags on the worse it goes for Russia, as other nations use Ukraine as a proxy to bleed them dry. The US learned this in Vietnam, then Russia learned it in Afghanistan, then the US learned it in Afghanistan, and now Russia - well, I guess the lesson repeats as needed, doesn't it? I guess it's Russia's turn to wear the dunce cap this time.

No signs Russia is actually losing other than US propagand in the media:

If you ignore the retreat from two axes of attack after almost six weeks of high-intensity warfare to take the capital (aka a """feint""") which littered the landscape with damaged and destroyed vehicles, the absolutely glacial rate of advance in Donbas, which makes any "encirclement" impossible to effect (you have to actually get behind the enemy before they can withdraw, and in sufficient force to actually prevent them from just steamrolling over your blocking forces,) and the heavy attrition of combat vehicles (as documented by an absolute glut of Ukrainian drone videos of Russian AFVs eating artillery fire) which provides Russia its military edge given its paucity of personnel compared to Ukraine (which is fully mobilized, unlike Russia.)

The loss of the Moskva changes what exactly?

The Moskva was one of only seven warships in the entire Russian Navy with a theater-range anti-air capability, (tenatively eight depending on when Nakhimov emerges from her never-ending refit.) Even the Royal Navy operates six Type 45 AAW destroyers armed with the theater-range Aster 30 missile, for comparison. Moreover with Turkey closing the Bosphorus the Moskva was the only theater-range equipped AAW naval asset Russia had in the Black Sea. Given her age, close-in anti-missile defense would have best been handled by one of the Admiral Gorshkov class ships anyway, who's navalized SA-11 system is roughly comparable - er, very roughly comparable to an ESSM (RIM-7P pK% but with early RIM-162 range.) The S-300 in any incarnation is still an effective system, as Ukraine has demonstrated - hell, Russia still uses them. Sure, it's dated but fighting NATO is what the S-400 is for; and plenty of NATO members - including the ones closest to Russia - have dated equipment themselves.

Losing the Moskva removes a mobile radar outpost and high-altitude aerial denial. This matters because to target ships with cruise missiles you need to know where they are, and aircraft typically used for this (Maritime Patrol Craft) tend to be big, obvious targets (twin-engined planes with very loud radars.) Not that Ukraine even has MPA aircraft with surface-search radar; they notionally have some Soviet SU-24MR hand-me-downs but given they're credited with all of twelve operational SU-24s total I very much doubt those MR's are among the operable fleet. That leaves you with visual searches, and while optics can see a long way from up high (as TB-2s demonstrated by filming the bombing of Snake Island from over 100km recently) they can't search at those ranges; it's like trying to search a football field by peering through a straw. Which means effective eyeball search, even with FLIR, is range-limited, bringing such birds into missile range. Without the Moskva the Russian Black Sea fleet's ships can defend themselves (to varying degrees of capability) but can't deny the airspace to long-range Ukrainian operations. Given Russian SA-11s have consistently demonstrated an inability to hit TB-2s dropping bombs on them from overhead, this means a TB-2 observing Crimea from >100km is not likely to be engaged by an S-400 battery there. This is just one example of what loss of airspace denial over the Black Sea means for Russia; a greater amount of Ukrainian intelligence gathering ability that's not dependent on US sources, who edit it to conceal means and methods, which not only degrades the intel but adds a time delay to it as well.

The sortie rate is unnecessary given the artillery that the Russians have, as they planned for NATO air superiority.

Please explain the heavy Soviet (and Russian Federation) emphasis on tactical CAS/strike aircraft such as the SU-25, SU-24 and the MI-8/17/24/28 and KA-52.

As it stands their artillery is crushing the Ukrainians or have you not noticed their advancing through several fortified belts that were built up over 8 years?

Where, exactly? Here's a link to the Ukraine Livemap showing the front-line situation on January 1st, 2022; this shows the frontline of the Donbas war. You'll note it's nowhere near Izyum. The southern end of the line, east of Mariupol, was never broken through, but rather abandoned as the defenders were outflanked from the Russian drive out of Crimea from the west. Russian forces are still stalled along the pre-war Donbas line of contact from Donetsk clear up to north of Pervomaisk, as you can see on the Finnish scribblemap. The only actual breakthrough of that pre-war line has been at Popansa - as the livemap shows the frontline was just west of the village of Molodizhne. From the forests west of Molodizhne to the furthest western edge of Popansa is... nine kilometers. Here, measure it yourself. Russia has been fighting for nine fucking weeks here and have finally managed to gain a total of... nine kilometers.

Air support is expensive per sortie, much more so than artillery, so why use that when they can save it for precision attacks?

Because it has an effective range of hundreds if not thousands of kilometers, unlike artillery, which maxes out around 70-80km for 300mm-class guided rocket artillery (aka miniature SRBMs.) Which is really useful if you want to, say, comprehensively destroy transport networks in the western half of Ukraine to prevent the flow of Western aid, supplies and munitions flowing over the Polish border. Russia's been trying to do that with cruise and ballistic missiles but the problem with those are, they're hideously expensive, making it prohibitively expensive to stockpile enough of them to actually comprehensively devastate something as massive and distributed as an entire region's rail network - which is why Russia's most recent round of attempts to do just that have had very limited effect. Cruise and ballistic missiles are for very high-priority targets or to kick in the door for airpower - if you want to conclusively destroy your enemies warmaking capability you need to conduct sustained strategic bombing, like the Allies did to Germany in WWII or the US to Iraq in Desert Storm. Aircraft are the only option because a weapon system where you re-use literally everything but the warhead (which is just plastic explosive in a cast-iron casing) is orders of magnitude cheaper for the destructive effect than a missile, which is a miniature aircraft, jet engine included, and can only be used once. Which is precisely why Russia has all those Tupolev strategic bombers in their arsenal... that they've only used for long-range cruise missile attacks. 🤔

As it stands they've ruined Ukraine's war industry to the point that Zelensky says it will take at least $600 billion to repair.

Given how many nations have relied upon Ukraine for repair services for Soviet/Russian based equipment (including the US, which operates various Sukhois and MiGs for aggressor squadron training,) and how many nations across the world (including NATO members and massive nations with massive armed forces, like India,) have TO&E highly reliant on Soviet/Russian legacy designs, I don't think Ukraine will have a hard time raising those funds. Dealing directly with Russia while courting the west has been a source of unavoidable tension for India for a long while now (again, with their TO&E they haven't much choice) but that problem just increased by an order of magnitude. Plus, India is bracing for war with China - China's been investing heavily in military infrastructure along their disputed border for years now. Given the decoupling of Russia with the West, Russia will be even more beholden to China now - in fact given the comparative sizes of their economies Russia runs the risk of becoming a client state. Which means India runs the risk of losing vendor support for most of their fucking military if China starts a war and leans on Russia to cut them off. And on top of all that, Ukraine no longer has to give a fuck about "antagonizing Russia" by undercutting Russian arms sales. It's a match made in heaven. There's already a blueprint for successful defense co-operation with Ukraine in the form of Turkey's defense industry collaboration with them.

Also, a defense industry is much, much more about brains over factories. You can rebuild a factory far faster than you can train a new generation of engineers across many varied applied engineering disciplines. And given Russia was still relying on Ukraine for military electronics until Russia attacked them in 2014 and shut down their own supply, I'd say Ukraine had the brains advantage to begin with. And it's always faster to rebuild a factory than build an entirely new one, unless it's been comprehensively reduced to rubble by sustained bombing. Just look at how much of the Azovstal plant is still standing despite months of shelling.

The Russians voluntarily gave up ground in the north because it didn't matter to their objectives, meanwhile they've only gained territory where it matters, on the south coast and in the Donbass.

Then why did they take that terrain in the first place? 🤔

Sounds like you've got western media brain rot.

Sounds like you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Do you have a source for Trump making this threat to Putin back when Trump was still in office?
It was omething I saw in...I think it was a Locust Eater's podcast a month or so ago, maybe more.

They said that Putin was told by Trump he'd nuke Moscow if Putin made a move on Kyiv, and given Putin didn't do shit while Trump was in office, while Trump used similar threats on N. Korea...I find it plausible.
 

ATP

Well-known member
Or he's playing the long game. Slow and steady wins the race. Don't go for sudden quick victories that might trigger US or NATO entry into the war, drag it out and wait for the Western publics to get bored of the war, sick of the expense of it, and be more focused on the accumulating economic problems at home. That is already starting. Stagflation, market collapse, political unrest at home, etc. is all building in the west. All this western media bullshit about internal dissent in Russia is projecting what is happening at home on to the Russians. As it is Russia is already making more money from the new economic trade system than they were before the war by exporting less and the Ruble is stronger than it was before the war. US international relationships are falling apart, see how the Saudis are basically assisting the Chinese-Russia economic war against the US to the point that the US is starting to turn on them:





This is siege warfare, militarily, politically, and economically.
No signs Russia is actually losing other than US propagand in the media:

Putin is more popular at home than ever:

1.Putin played long game till 2022,when he declared denazification of entire country,and planned to do so in 11 days.
Now,he must win quickly,made peace,or die.
And deals with China made him Pekin puppet.

2.Siege warfare in which Moscov is loosing tanks every day - and could not produce new ones.

3.Russia could not losing,becouse soviets murdered her 100 year ago.But Moscov lost few times arleady - when they do not win in 11 days,do not take Kiev,and must retreat from it.

4.Putin is popular? so what? Moscov is not Democracy,but KGB oligarchy.Do not matter what average Ivan think,but what other oligarchs do.And when they replace him with somebody more competent.

Personally,i prefer Putin as Moscov leader - he is evil,but incopetent,and Biden could not sell us to him becouse of his crimes.
When they kill him,we would face somebody who could be competent and evil - and who could made deal with Biden - Alliance against China for Europe.
Frankly,if Putin had brain,he would do so long ago.
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Sotnik
Battle of the Pontoon Bridges Today... or at Least the Destruction of Two Pontoon Bridges.



They lost a River TUG!!!



United Kingdom offers to backfill Poland for Jets if Poland wants to Offer MiG-29's to Ukraine in a version of the idea that the United States infamously declined.



Footage of Chechen Fighters (on the side of Ukraine) Operating a Captured Russian T-80 Tank with added improvements.



Russian Vehicles Enduring the Receiving End of Ukrainian Indirect Fire.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top