Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[TheRomanSlayer]

Where are these alternative pipelines going to come from? Syria was about that and they failed to overthrow the regime despite the horrific damage it caused. Sweden and Finland in NATO isn't really going to change that much, though it remains to be seen if either will pull that trigger, especially Finland.
NATO bases in Poland or the Baltics? LOL! Fuck no, no one is going to spend that kind of money. Germany will spend more to prop up their economy, but that's about it. The US cannot afford it and Germany is not going to build up enough to deploy forces east of their own country. France and Britain might make a show of things, but aren't going to build bases. Face it the west is impotent.

It's not like American oil and gas companies will use their tankers to ship those things to Europe, but tankers will take a lot longer to sail from whichever part of the US they're extracting said oil and gas to which refinery in Europe they'll send it to.

There's Bondsteel in the Balkans, but that's a whole different story.

 

[sillygoose]

It's not like American oil and gas companies will use their tankers to ship those things to Europe, but tankers will take a lot longer to sail from whichever part of the US they're extracting said oil and gas to which refinery in Europe they'll send it to.

There's Bondsteel in the Balkans, but that's a whole different story.

At what expense? That fuel will be MUCH more expensive. Not like Germany, which apparently is in recession over Covid, is going to be able to afford that extra charge. Besides we're talking about natural gas, not oil. LNG is an option, but much better via pipeline than trans-Atlantic tanker. Trump floated that idea in 2018 but the Euros were not buying.

Like it or not Germany is stuck with Russia's fuel and Europe will have to act accordingly. The US et al tried to play their card with the pipeline that would have to run through Syria, but that failed, so unless Britain can suddenly discover enough to satisfy Europe Putin is the only show in town.

 

[Marduk]

Where are these alternative pipelines going to come from? Syria was about that and they failed to overthrow the regime despite the horrific damage it caused. Sweden and Finland in NATO isn't really going to change that much, though it remains to be seen if either will pull that trigger, especially Finland.
NATO bases in Poland or the Baltics? LOL! Fuck no, no one is going to spend that kind of money. Germany will spend more to prop up their economy, but that's about it. The US cannot afford it and Germany is not going to build up enough to deploy forces east of their own country. France and Britain might make a show of things, but aren't going to build bases. Face it the west is impotent.

Yeah, technically NATO expansion doesn't change much, but sure is something Russia won't like and cares about it.

Screw pipelines, build a gas port, like Poland did. Japan, which uses a massive amount of gas, uses solely ports, so technically and financially its far from unrealistic.

Germany already promised to raise military spending.

Once-reluctant Germany boosts military in wake of Russian invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to do in five days what U.S. presidents of both parties have failed to do for a decade: Get NATO laggard Germany to spend more on defense.

www.washingtontimes.com

Muslim guerrillas are willing to sacrifice, reports are now that people in Ukrainian cities are bitching that the power is turned off. The arming of civilians is not going well either. Turns out you need a population capable of massive sacrifice and the skills to succeed to actually pull that off, which only the neo-Nazis in Ukraine actually had, but they are caught up in the east of the country.

Kurds do it too. Hell, Polish guerillas in WW2 did it against fucking Nazis.
Azov aren't the only far right guys in a 40 million country, add general patriots because their country is in fact getting invaded, that's gonna be plenty enough people.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Random pictures of stuff...

Two Friendly Green Men posing for a picture with cool looking kit including an apparent assistant (and former FSB Officer) Daniil Martynov.



More Ukrainian Soldier and Cat pictures.



A picture of a T-90 tank struck by an RPG and reportedly a Russian T-72B3 Tank that's gone topless in the Poltava Oblast in North Eastern Ukraine, likely destroyed by the Swedes. Look how big that gun is!



AFAIK if true, this is the one of the earliest examples of a T-90 lost to hostile fire or in combat. Previous several T-90's were damaged during the Syrian Civil War and several other Syrian T-90's captured (and some recaptured) during that same conflict a few years ago. And IIRC a few (at least one) Azeri T-90 tank was destroyed in the Azeri-Armenian War of 2020.

Supposed results of an attack on a Russian VDV column geolocated to Bucha, not too far Northwest of Kyiv.



Oryx recently updated their documented losses of equipment after a day.

 

[Floridaman]

Yeah, technically NATO expansion doesn't change much, but sure is something Russia won't like and cares about it.

Screw pipelines, build a gas port, like Poland did. Japan, which uses a massive amount of gas, uses solely ports, so technically and financially its far from unrealistic.

Germany already promised to raise military spending.

Once-reluctant Germany boosts military in wake of Russian invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to do in five days what U.S. presidents of both parties have failed to do for a decade: Get NATO laggard Germany to spend more on defense.

www.washingtontimes.com

Kurds do it too. Hell, Polish guerillas in WW2 did it against fucking Nazis.
Azov aren't the only far right guys in a 40 million country, add general patriots because their country is in fact getting invaded, that's gonna be plenty enough people.

Japan is an island and so has no choice, building a whole new nat gas infrastructure is hard since the local greens scream bloody murder at the idea, and if you are already somehow able to get past pissing them off, just bring back nuclear energy.

 

[History Learner]

Face it the west is impotent.

I phrased it in a conversation the other day as NATO and the U.S. being the annoying drunk girl at the party; she can make your life miserable at the party but ultimately she really can't do all that much to you after you leave.

 

[History Learner]

It's not like American oil and gas companies will use their tankers to ship those things to Europe, but tankers will take a lot longer to sail from whichever part of the US they're extracting said oil and gas to which refinery in Europe they'll send it to.

There's Bondsteel in the Balkans, but that's a whole different story.

Where are American oil and gas companies going to get that spare capacity, shipping and capacity at ports to do this?

 

[History Learner]

Muslim militants in MENA are scratching their heads and looking at each other, then shrugging their shoulders. "Ah they will get the hang of it eventually, we will publish our playbook online so they can at least avoid some of our mishaps."

On a more serious note:



Bill despite my disagreements in regards to what US Policy should be, grasps the fact the Russians are winning and 'Western Analysts' don't have a clue of the actual reality of mass maneuver warfare by professional militaries as Colonial Conflicts against the 3rd world have utterly skewed their perspectives.

That's the third pocket in the making I've seen in the last 24 hours; the capture of Melitopol and general advance from the Donbass is forming another around Mariupol while the largest is forming via the Russian advance on Zaporozhye. That's three encirclements, with the last probably going to be the biggest and see much of the Ukrainian Army encircled.

Deep Battle is alive and well in the 21st Century.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Have to say even the super upgraded T-72's and T-80's have not been particularly impressive in their showings so far, Granted most of those losses seem to be coming from ambushes or urban combat situations they still seem inferior to their peers. Not sure whats going on in Eastern Ukraine where I assume the bulk of the regulars are still stationed for some strange reason.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I have bad news for ya.

Klaus Schwab Brags That Trudeau, Merkel, Putin Are Former World Economic Forum Young Global Leaders; “We penetrate the cabinets” - The American Report

By Mary Fanning and Alan Jones | The American Report | January 30, 2022 Klaus Schwab, the World Economic Forum Founder and Executive Chairman, famously predicted “You’ll own nothing” — and “you’ll be happy about it,” During a 2017 appearance at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government with...

theamericanreport.org

Vladimir Putin

1975, graduate, Law Department, Leningrad State University. 1975, with KGB Foreign Intelligence Service; Adviser to Rector, Leningrad State University; 1990, left KGB; Head, Mayor's External Relations Committee, St Petersburg; 1994, Deputy Mayor; Head, local branch, Our Home is Russia; 1996...

www.weforum.org

If you're gonna believe questionable theories like that, at least get the story straight.
This is WEF on WEF violence!

Illuminati, Council of Foreign Relations. Bohemian Grove. Bilderbergers blah blah blah. WEF is the new scent of the same shit.

Y'all worried about the World Economic Forum listen to too much Alex Jones.



Oh FFS!

Where are we on the Alex Jones Was Right Chart?

 

[WolfBear]

Western Ukraine is already a hotbed of Russophobia, due to it being historically linked with not only Poland, but the former Austro-Hungarian Empire as well. Most of what is now Ukraine were once a part of the Tsarist Empire.

Frankly, I suspect that by the end of this conflict the western Ukrainian concept of Ukrainian nationalism will become even more appealing outside of western Ukraine.

Almost half of Ukrainians might view themselves and Russians as one people, but this doesn't translate into a desire to live in the same country. Europe looks much more attractive for them.

 

[WolfBear]

I feel bad for the Ukrainian people, but I really have to wonder how many more times this sort of thing is going to happen. That is, a neighbor of Russia's which Russia has made it very clear doesn't want to align closely with the West getting strung along by the West until the Russians go to war with it outright, only for the same West to fail to offer them anywhere near enough aid to not get obliterated. Seems the West is doing more for Ukraine than they did for Georgia previously though, those guys never got Russia booted from SWIFT or European airspace closed to them even after helping the Coalition out in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There's so much bullshit and conflicting information flying around that I think I'll have to wait until the war's over and the dust has settled to get a clear picture of whatever's going on - reminds me of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war where the Armenians and Azeris were both rattling off insane claims (the Armenians moreso than the Azeris, IIRC) and stories of heroic feats out of a cartoon until suddenly it turned out Azerbaijan had won after all. But I am curious as to what a realistic compromise peace, assuming neither an outright Ukrainian victory (quite implausible without direct US/NATO aid by the looks of it) or a Russian stomp in the next week or month, would even look like at this point. Diplomatic Finlandization? Cession of the remainder of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts to their respective People's Republics? I read that Zelensky and Putin have agreed to send delegates to start negotiating on the Belarusian border earlier today, though with all the fighting still ongoing it doesn't look like the odds of anything actually coming out of it are good.

Georgia was the aggressor in 2008 whereas Ukraine was not the aggressor right now; that made a huge difference in Western attitudes between 2008 and right now, most likely.

The problem is that I suspect that for many Ukrainians, this Russian invasion is only going to reinforce their belief that only NATO membership would offer genuine, long-term security for their country. This would be especially true considering that Putin and likely many Russians still view Ukraine as an artificial country and want it for its human capital:

Regathering of the Russian Lands

The Empire, Long Divided, Must Unite

akarlin.substack.com

This brings us to something more in the realm of speculation as opposed to something that Putin definitely thinks. But here goes. The value of Ukraine is not in its territory, nor less its sovok rustbelt industries, nor even less its position on the invasion route to Moscow (spoiler: We live in the ICBM age). Ukraine’s value is, forgive the triteness, in its people, or its human capital - namely, 35 million 95+ IQ people who are very close to and compatible with Russians, who are indeed an intrinsic part of the All Russian nation. Now if Russia was prepared to expend a rather high cost in welfare funds and knock on effects on integrating 1.5 million genuinely quite “alien” Chechens, then paying a drastically more modest price (per capita) for 35 million of its own kith and kin is eminently rational. Although Russia’s 145 million people can still generate sufficient economies of scale to maintain political sovereignty and to run a largely self-contained technological civilization, complete with its own IT ecosystem (read: sovereign memetic space, “socially distanced” from the Woke nihilism of the West), space program, and technological visions. But creating and then sustaining such a world-civilization will certainly be considerably easier in a restored “Russian World” that unites Russians, Belorussians, and Ukrainians under one banner in a Slavic superpower of 200 million people stretching from Brest to Vladivostok

Russians have always had designs on Ukraine even when Ukraine was not seriously considering NATO membership. You remember Putin's attempt to bully Yanukovych, an opponent of NATO membership of Ukraine, to join the Eurasian Union? :

Russian embargo of Ukrainian goods - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And really, one has a perfectly legitimate question: Why exactly is Baltic membership in NATO acceptable for Russia but Ukrainian membership in NATO is unacceptable for Russia? Russia has a lot of nukes to protect itself either way. As Anatoly Karlin writes in the same article from above:

"We live in the ICBM age"

This, of course, means that Ukraine's value as a buffer for Russia is much, much less than it previously was. Especially when the NATO Baltic members are already so close to St. Petersburg and when NATO already has ICBMs.

 

[Chiron]

Have to say even the super upgraded T-72's and T-80's have not been particularly impressive in their showings so far, Granted most of those losses seem to be coming from ambushes or urban combat situations they still seem inferior to their peers. Not sure whats going on in Eastern Ukraine where I assume the bulk of the regulars are still stationed for some strange reason.

Or maybe the fact of the matter is both Ukraine and Russia are professional militaries with the same base military doctrines and equipment base and are engaged in real mass maneuver warfare with large void spaces between spearheads in which Hunter-Killer Teams are trying to take out logistical vehicles.

This isn't a Colonial War like Iraq or Afghanistan. This is mass maneuver warfare between peer competitors who use concealment, misdirection, ECM/ECCM, air power, special forces, etc in any manner needed to gain an advantage and shape the fight to their designs.

 

[WolfBear]

Yeah, so if the Russians have to deal with western Ukraine it is gonna be gloves off.

I can see them targeting civillian infrastructure and making Western Ukraine miserable, and forcing refugee waves to fuck over the EUSSR after the morons decided to go nuts.

Sending western Ukrainians to Siberian gulags en masse like in the Stalinist old days? For instance, Vasyl Kuybida was born in the Arctic--specifically here:

Inta - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

His parents were Ukrainian nationalist insurgents who got deported to the Arctic by Stalin:

Vasyl Kuybida - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

They might have to extend the upgraded Iron Curtain to include China as well, for obvious reasons.

But not before China gets Taiwan!

Eastern Europe is probably going to end up with Korean DMZ tier militarization on its borders after the dust settles, I'm imagining iron curtain 2.0.

Where will the border be?

Where are these alternative pipelines going to come from? Syria was about that and they failed to overthrow the regime despite the horrific damage it caused. Sweden and Finland in NATO isn't really going to change that much, though it remains to be seen if either will pull that trigger, especially Finland.
NATO bases in Poland or the Baltics? LOL! Fuck no, no one is going to spend that kind of money. Germany will spend more to prop up their economy, but that's about it. The US cannot afford it and Germany is not going to build up enough to deploy forces east of their own country. France and Britain might make a show of things, but aren't going to build bases. Face it the west is impotent.





Muslim guerrillas are willing to sacrifice, reports are now that people in Ukrainian cities are bitching that the power is turned off. The arming of civilians is not going well either. Turns out you need a population capable of massive sacrifice and the skills to succeed to actually pull that off, which only the neo-Nazis in Ukraine actually had, but they are caught up in the east of the country.

Theoretically speaking, if the desire will still be there, the West can overthrow Assad even right now. But it probably shouldn't bother:

 

[Husky_Khan]

Reports coming in that the Russians have taken Berdyansk on the coast of the Sea of Azov. They've been advancing Eastward in Southern Ukraine and could be moving towards (or towards encircling) the Donbass forces and mores other new forces maybe threatening Mariupol as well.

Time to restore the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, Under a rightful monarch of course.

I'd really like to see a Real Life Lore or other analysis of some version of that existing today, either from the historical territory or some sort of modern confederation.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Whoever did this must have been drunk. Bet explaining how that happened to the CO was fun.

 

[WolfBear]

Whoever did this must have been drunk. Bet explaining how that happened to the CO was fun.

What does CO mean?

 

[Husky_Khan]

What does CO mean?

Commanding Officer

 

[SchrodingersWehraboo]

 

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Man is bleeding to death and he just stands there over him looking at his phone.