Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[LordsFire]

Even if Ukraine somehow retakes 100% of its pre 2014 land and Putin's cabal gets replaced by some 'anti-Putin' cabal, the idea of any of Russia's current leadership facing trial outside Russia is chuckle worthy.

Not really.

Such an anti-Putin crowd might keep a couple of the old oligarchs alive to pass off to the west for war crimes trials as sacrificial goats, to try to end sanctions.

I can't really think of any other way Putin supporters would survive such a complete upset of the power structure though.

 

[Aaron Fox]

Even if Ukraine somehow retakes 100% of its pre 2014 land and Putin's cabal gets replaced by some 'anti-Putin' cabal, the idea of any of Russia's current leadership facing trial outside Russia is chuckle worthy.

Not really.

Such an anti-Putin crowd might keep a couple of the old oligarchs alive to pass off to the west for war crimes trials as sacrificial goats, to try to end sanctions.

I can't really think of any other way Putin supporters would survive such a complete upset of the power structure though.

Here's the thing: as I said before, there isn't an 'anti-Putin' cabal, just groups that make Putin look like a fluffy kitten regarding how much Ravachinism they have.

The most likely scenario is an Empire Earth 1 'Novaya Russia' scenario, minus the time machines.

Looks like Russia's Black Seas Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol got struck again.



Poor couple weeks for the Black Seas Fleet.

Given how top-heavy Russia is in terms of CnC? This isn't going to end well.

I'll believe it when I see them used; Biden's flip flopped and slow rolled to much shit for me to think this is real and legit 'this time', till we have actual use.

Biden said the same thing about F-16s a while back too.

He is only flip-flopping because he has to deal with a party that is very much in bed with Russia (and no, it isn't the Dems, it's the GOP), who have the House.

 

[Husky_Khan]

There've been rumblings of a break through (more likely a breaking) of the main Russian defense lines West of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the past couple days. The big OSINT aggregator/analyst Institute of War finally "assessed" that it has occurred.



Still a minor advance at the moment since Russia has prepared an extensive defense in depth as ISW notes.

Institute for the Study of War

ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. These fortifications are not the final defensive line in Russia’s defense in depth in western Zaporizhia O

www.understandingwar.org

And an interactive map of the recent alleged shifts in control.



EDIT:

Another map.

 

[strunkenwhite]

I'll believe it when I see them used; Biden's flip flopped and slow rolled to much shit for me to think this is real and legit 'this time', till we have actual use.

Biden said the same thing about F-16s a while back too.

Slow-walking, sure, but when has the Biden administration flipped from promising something to not giving it rather than the other way around? (That is, saying they won't and then giving it.) Call me credulous if you want but I think we'll be seeing F-16s in Ukraine next year.

there isn't an 'anti-Putin' cabal, just groups that make Putin look like a fluffy kitten regarding how much Ravachinism they have.

At this point I don't think Putin would "look like a fluffy kitten" if put next to Stalin.

 

[ATP]

Even if Ukraine somehow retakes 100% of its pre 2014 land and Putin's cabal gets replaced by some 'anti-Putin' cabal, the idea of any of Russia's current leadership facing trial outside Russia is chuckle worthy.

Of course,becouse new cabal would kill putin cronies themselves.They knew too much about Moscov politics,and other oligarhs,to let them live.And they would certainly speak in foreign prison.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Ukrainians reportedly struck Kursk with multiple explosions going off including at the Airport. Casualties and losses estimated to be between Zero and More then Zero depending on source.



Germany announced a new military aid package worth 400 million Euros. Includes a lot of shells, air defense missiles and mines but also more SPAAG's and surface drones.



Improvised Ukrainian Self Propelled Gun Mounting a very Early Cold War KS-19 100mm Anti-aircraft Gun onto a Flatbed Truck.



A New Russian Armored Fighting Vehicle Rises From the Ashes. In this case a Naval 213mm Anti-Submarine Multiple Rocket Launcher onto an MT-LB.



And yet another New Russian Armored Fighting Vehicle turns to ash... a Naval 140mm Multiple Rocket Launcher mounted on an MT-LB has been destroyed.



Russia's superiority in mounting janky Naval Multiple Rocket Launchers onto ancient MT-LB's far outstrips Ukraine's ability to do the same.

 

[Aaron Fox]

At this point I don't think Putin would "look like a fluffy kitten" if put next to Stalin.

Stalin is... Stalin but also more than willing to understand that even he gets shit wrong at times (like the many times he got good generals out of the gulag because the generals available weren't viable for what he needed). He was also paranoid and a monster but not a complete idiot.

In addition, the USSR was effectively a bit larger than the Russian Empire for most of his reign, eliminating much of the Ravachinism.

The 1990s not only rekindled that Ravachinism but put it into MAXIMUM OVERDRIVE. Putin and his current inner circle have put a lid on that for decades, but at this point, if Putin is removed from power, the most likely scenario is reality taking a lot from the Novaya Russia campaign from Empire Earth 1 (given that reality has been skimming a lot from shitty technothrillers and, in some cases, entire plots from videogames over the last 7 years, if not more...)...

Also, Kings and Generals have posted a new video:

 

[ATP]

Stalin is... Stalin but also more than willing to understand that even he gets shit wrong at times (like the many times he got good generals out of the gulag because the generals available weren't viable for what he needed). He was also paranoid and a monster but not a complete idiot.

In addition, the USSR was effectively a bit larger than the Russian Empire for most of his reign, eliminating much of the Ravachinism.

The 1990s not only rekindled that Ravachinism but put it into MAXIMUM OVERDRIVE. Putin and his current inner circle have put a lid on that for decades, but at this point, if Putin is removed from power, the most likely scenario is reality taking a lot from the Novaya Russia campaign from Empire Earth 1 (given that reality has been skimming a lot from shitty technothrillers and, in some cases, entire plots from videogames over the last 7 years, if not more...)...

Also, Kings and Generals have posted a new video:

Then,you do not undarstandt sralin.He was good commie,so he wanted entire Earth under his yoke - soviet union Crest was hammer on Earg globe,after all,not Russia.
'And he would start WW3 to get it,if he do not planned pure first,and would-be-victims purged him first.


When any post-putin would only want ex - soviet states,including Poland.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Thread on the Verbove situation from a pro-Ukrainian source.

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: From recent video geoconfirmations, it's clear that the UAF are actively operating near Verbove and Novoprokopivka. Satellite analysis, based on observable landscape changes, supports it and shows fi...…

threadreaderapp.com

Seven tweets long but basically details how Ukrainians are still fighting Russian occupiers in and around Verbove and throwing up some various maps to illustrate the point. No breakthrough yet though the gains recently were notable.

An OSINT account from yesterday states similar things. UAF and armored vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin Line. but Russian defenses in the area are still organized. Bending, not breaking and thus no breakthrough.

Thread by @emilkastehelmi on Thread Reader App

@emilkastehelmi: Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armoured vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. At the same time, the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were ...…

threadreaderapp.com

And for those who want to see it in mildly entertaining video form instead of reading tweets from OSINT randos.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Black Seas Admiral Viktor Sokolov who was both reported injured or killed in the Ukrainian Strike upon the Black Seas Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol, appeared alive in a video released by Russian media attending a meeting remotely.



The Ukrainian Port Town of Orlivka was targeted by Russian strikes, likely Iranian Shahed drones. Located on the Danube across from Romania, the ferry crossing and over twenty trucks were reported damaged and destroyed.

Thread by @vik8867dn on Thread Reader App

@vik8867dn: 1. Wrote an eyewitness to today's russian Shahed attacks on the #Orlivka-#Isaccea ferry crossing across the #Danube River on the Ukrainian-Romanian border, as a result of which #russia burned 6 trucks an...…

threadreaderapp.com

The first Marder 1A3 Infantry Fighting Vehicle Destroyed. Just to pre-empt anyone, it looks like another NATO Wonderwaffen was lost. Basically a more well armored Mercedes-Benz. Should've purchased BTR-60's from the Bulgarian scrapyards instead. Though as an interesting note, AFAIK this is the first combat loss of a Marder IFV which first entered service in 1971. Some were damaged in Afghanistan but none destroyed. They were also deployed to Kosovo



Speaking of Bulgaria, they are discussing sending unusable S-300 Air Defense missiles to Ukraine so that the latter can use them as spare parts. It's widely believed that Ukraine's S-300 missile inventory was close to depleted months ago.

Proposal for Bulgaria to give unserviceable S-300 missiles to Ukraine

Members of Parliament from GERB-UDF, We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms have tabled a draft decision to give unserviceable S-300 anti-aircraft missi…

sofiaglobe.com

Announced by Zelensky a while ago, but an assumed ten of the thirty one M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks are arriving in Ukraine.



It's pretty clear that NATO has analyzed the situation and decided that the M1A1 Abrams tank is so far superior to whatever Russia has fielded, that they only need less then a third of the thirty one tanks they originally delivered. These wonderwaffen will undoubtedly complete the breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia, driving unharmed through minefields with their IED resistant tested and proven designs while eliminating Russian armor at ranges of two or even three kilometers away (more with indirect fire) while Lancets and Krasnopol rounds bounce off of its Chobham armor. IT IS INVULNERABLE WONDERWAFFEN AND WILL NOT BE LOST to inferior Ruzzian armaments.

 

[lloyd007]

Black Seas Admiral Viktor Sokolov who was both reported injured or killed in the Ukrainian Strike upon the Black Seas Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol, appeared alive in a video released by Russian media attending a meeting remotely.

Yeah, this right here is why I reserve judgment on any high up getting whacked until there's hard evidence from THEIR side or they're basically never seen again (and in the latter case, even Surovikin has been trotted out from whatever GULAG they keep him stashed 99% of the time.) Anything else is pure Hopium much like the Ukrainians are indulging in in their 'major breakthroughs' where they've gained yards, YARDS! of trenchworks, open fields and a few outskirts buildings of some small villages.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Ukraine has engaged in several cross border raids and missile strikes upon Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast over the past several days.

Among the targets included an oil refinfery and an FSB Security Building where Russian sources reported casualties were incurred.



Drones also dropped explosives on a Russian substation, causing local blackouts.



Ukraine also stated Russian Seperatists engaged in cross border raids, inflicting more casualties upon Russian security personnel.



Things got so bad that Kursk cancelled its local anniversary celebrations.

Frontline report: Russia’s Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk oblasts reel from Ukrainian strikes

Ukrainian forces raided targets in Russia's border regions in the past week. Ukraine also struck a huge Russian ammunition depot deep in Russia-occupied Luhansk, using long-range missiles launched from 150 km away.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Bacle]

 

[The Whispering Monk]

I wonder how much of that 80% was going to these same inspectors to keep them from finding the fraud in the first place.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Russian Air Defense Intercepts a modern Su-35S Fighter Jet making an incursion in over the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Impressive work by the Russians! Clear evidence F-16's would be doomed! 💪



Reportedly an increase in use of Iranian Shahed Drones by Russian Forces for strikes in Ukraine.



More recently made Serbian munitions found in Ukrainian service.



DPICM munitions being broken down to provide drone dropped munitions by Ukraine. Ryan McBeth and others predicted this would be one of their applications.



Ukraine Modifying MT-LB's into heavier armored fighting vehicles.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Self destructive levels of corruption. These people need to get a grip.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Self destructive levels of corruption. These people need to get a grip.

That's the problem...they are ALL trying to get a grip on anything they can.
None of the Russian peoples have been trained to look at material as anything more than, "How much of this can I get without causing problems that'll get me killed?"

 

[Lord Sovereign]

That's the problem...they are ALL trying to get a grip on anything they can.
None of the Russian peoples have been trained to look at material as anything more than, "How much of this can I get without causing problems that'll get me killed?"

This is a product of communism trashing the Russian psyche isn’t it? At least, that’s how I understand it.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

This is a product of communism trashing the Russian psyche isn’t it? At least, that’s how I understand it.

In some part at least. The Communist idea was to have everyone work together to better the state, and thus everyone does better when the state does. Unfortunately, reality and human nature tend to hijack all things. Communism consolidated power into an oligarchy...and they decided they liked that power and everything that came with it. So they consolidated as much power as possible.

This example led to EVERY one else doing the same thing. It was especially successful for the Bratva and others that had control of the black markets. Who else was Russia going to turn to to manage their newly opened industries. Really, it was a matter of who could seize control of those areas most effectively. Now...spread that out amongst every facet of Russia...military, intelligence, oil, manufacturing, etc... Then compound all that with the notion that your control/influence of an area entitles you to a 'piece of the pie', and you get what Russia has now.

That's overly simplified and exaggerated, but it gets you towards the right thinking.

EDIT: Forgot to mention something

Add the above to the scarcity so common in the Soviet Union. What you get is essentially a starvation victim that sees massive amounts of resources become available. So they gorge as much as they can b/c they know that famine is just around the corner. It's not necessarily true, but that thought is buried in their brain.

 

[Buba]

Corruption was doing very nicely under the Tsars, thank you very much. As much as I like blaming Communism for everything, it is not (solely) responsible for the kleptocratic mindset of Russian officialdom.

As to post post-1989 Russian navy - a Captain sold his ship's screws as they were from expensive alloys ...

Russian destroyer Bespokoyny (1990) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org