Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[Batrix2070]

Would someone explain to me how slow progress = losing?

The usual bad will, lack of knowledge. Typical smarting for the sake of smarting.
On a more serious note, most of the complainers here don't know anything about war strategy but are making excuses.
Grasp and hold is no novelty, the French came up with it during WWI when they tried all other methods to break the front and it proved to be the only effective one.
Since this war, on the other hand, is such, a recreation of WWI, it is obvious that the Ukrainians will use the most effective but little-known method of victory.

 

[Zachowon]

The usual bad will, lack of knowledge. Typical smarting for the sake of smarting.
On a more serious note, most of the complainers here don't know anything about war strategy but are making excuses.
Grasp and hold is no novelty, the French came up with it during WWI when they tried all other methods to break the front and it proved to be the only effective one.
Since this war, on the other hand, is such, a recreation of WWI, it is obvious that the Ukrainians will use the most effective but little-known method of victory.

They are also doing it in a manner to decrease deaths. Which capture, reinforce, push forward is needed

 

[Batrix2070]

They are also doing it in a manner to decrease deaths. Which capture, reinforce, push forward is needed

And the fact that the Media is looking for sensationalism and speed and momentum always look better than slowly taking out piece after piece.

Most of such screamers if they talk about WWII then concentrate on commanders attacking with momentum, like Patton or Rommel. Instead of on more balanced ones like Montgomery or Model.
The former were vociferous but greater effects were achieved by the latter.

 

[Zachowon]

And the fact that the Media is looking for sensationalism and speed and momentum always look better than slowly taking out piece after piece.

Most of such screamers if they talk about WWII then concentrate on commanders attacking with momentum, like Patton or Rommel. Instead of on more balanced ones like Montgomery or Model.
The former were vociferous but greater effects were achieved by the latter.

Ike is an example. He favored how far his logistics could push him, and knee those logistics would be needed to maintain momentum. He stopped when he knew it was needed, he pushed when he knew it was needed.
Bradley is another example.

In a war you need a balance of all of the generals.

 

[Tyzuris]

Because they are used to Americna thunder runs, or that the media was making it seem like if you take slow gains you are not doing good.
Yet when Russia makes slow gains it is showing Ukraine losing, but when Ukraine makes them it is Ukraine losing Russia winning

And when Ukraine makes more breakthroughs into the first lines of defenses in the southern front and keeps on moving to second and third lines, it's not like this pace will follow linearly all the way to the Sea of Azov. There will also become a point when Russian front collapses quite hard as Ukraine slowly but surely takes town after town and cleans Russian lines of defense and Ukraine will be able to accelerate its attack. Especially now that Ukraine is about to receive ATACMS, (and after Scholz fiddles around his manparts realizing there's a pair of balls there) there might be TAURUS sent as well + one big factor which is 61 F-16 arriving from Denmark and Netherlands.

Ukraine constantly gets new capabilities as Russia's capabilities dwindle and the supposed ''2nd army in the world'' has to go beg artillery from North fucking Korea because Russia's own artillery branch is now basically shot to hell along with their armoured corps.

 

[Husky_Khan]

A "dramatic" increase in rail transport acitivity between Russia and North Korea according to satellite imagery acquired by CSIS.

Dramatic Increase in DPRK-Russia Border Rail Traffic After Kim-Putin Summit - Beyond Parallel

A few weeks after the Kim-Putin summit, satellite imagery show an unprecedented level of rail traffic at the DPRK-Russia border.

beyondparallel.csis.org

Ukrainian Assault in the Bakhmut Direction Reportedly Captured a Russian Major Whose Battalion Suffered "Heavy" Casualties.



Ships Remaining of the Black Seas Fleet in Sevastopol as of a few days ago...



Russian TOS-1A Thermobaric MLRS's always go up with incredible explosions. This one was destroyed in Zaporizhzhia reportedly.



Another long twitter thread from ChrisO compiled from Russian sources on the disappointing state of Russian Battlefield Medicine.

Some of the issues mentioned are the large numbers of Russian wounded who could've suffered much less serious wounds or still be alive but instead suffered blood loss and bleeding out. Also due to the nature of the combat with the shelling and use of drones, Russian forces don't want to risk personnel and equipment in transporting anything more then lightly wounded from the conflict zone.

There is also a lack of proper field/military hospitals. This is in part due to many logistical and medical personnel being utilized as frontline/combat troops but also a general lack of medical personnel. One medical brigade was reportedly formed out of teachers and scientists, not medical personnel. Much of the supplies and personnel have to come from humanitarian and charitable organizations as well as locals.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russian sources say that as many as 70-90% of all Russian deaths on the battlefield are caused by bleeding, rather than fatal wounds. An effective collapse of the Russian army's combat medical care ...…

threadreaderapp.com

European Union Officials state that the ongoing crisis in Israel-Palestine won't affect support for Ukraine.

Situation in Israel won't shake support for Ukraine – European Commission

The European Commission has stated that the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not lead to a decrease in support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. Source: European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer during a briefing in Brussels on Monday, 9 October Quote: "I don't think anything...

news.yahoo.com

And finally... reports on how Russia plans to exploit the recent Hamas Offensive Against Israel in order to wedge continuing support for Ukraine.

Institute for the Study of War

The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine. The Kremlin amplified several information operations

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Husky_Khan]

Perun Did a Video Last Weekend on The Ukrainian Counteroffensive, Something of an Update to his Previous Video on the Topic Earlier In the Summer. Titled Breach or Breakthrough. Spoiler... seems to be the first one.



He specifically discusses the Ground Offensive in the South Mostly Performed By the Ukrainian Forces, Including Its NATO-trained Brigades. Then he covers the Fighting in the East including the Russian Offensives in those Areas Often Overlooked. The Ongoing Effects on Crimea and the Nature of the Battlefield, including its Many Problematic Landmines Followed by Some Concluding Analysis.

Institute of War Reportage from OSINT Accounts State Slight Advances Made by Ukrainian Forces near Bakhmut and in the South in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Border Area.

Thread by @TheStudyofWar on Thread Reader App

@TheStudyofWar: #Ukraine: Russian forces launched localized offensive operations in the #Avdiivka area of #Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western #Zaporizhia Oblast on October 9, which are likely intende...…

threadreaderapp.com

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 9, which are likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces away from the Robotyne area. Russian

www.understandingwar.org

This includes a Strong Russian Offensive Directed Towards the City of Avdiivka which has been contested since the earliest stages of the conflict in 2014.



A Ukrainian Su-25 Attack Jet was struck by a Russian Drone while at an Airbase in Kryvyi Rih.



Ukrainian GMLRS Rocket Reportedly Eliminated a Russian Drone Control Station



Ukrainian Partisans Destroyed a Statue of Lenin Recently Erected in the Russian Occupied City of Nova Kakhovka.

 

[Husky_Khan]

There's still major Russian offensives being attempted in Avdiivka and other places, backed by large amounts of tanks and other armored vehicles. The results of the Russian offensives so far has turned up little reportedly but the attacks are continuing today. A wild variety of Russian vehicles have been documented as lost ranging from T-62M's, T-72 and T-80 Variants as well as the greatest main battle tank in service today, the T-90M.

Thread by @PStyle0ne1 on Thread Reader App

@PStyle0ne1: 🧵A small thread with a few videos of the failed Russian attack on Avdiivka today and yesterday per reports The tactic is reminiscent of Vuhledar. This morning Ukrainians have announced staggering losses...…

threadreaderapp.com

There's another strong advance being attempted farther to the North in the Kreminna-Lyman Area (where the frontlines came to a stop after the successful Kharkiv Offensive last Fall) but similar lack of resulted and reportedly heavy losses.



As of yesterday it was reported that the Russians had lost 68 vehicles, including 24 tanks. That number seems likely to increase in numbers due to todays developments.



The First F-16's are expected to arrive in Ukrainian Service in the Spring of 2024. Other countries, like Belgium, have stated they're unlikely to be able to send F-16's until 2025.

Ukraine receives major update on when first F-16s may arrive

The Danish Ministry of Defense announced Wednesday that the first batch of F-16 fighter jets are expected to arrive in Ukraine in March or April 2024.

www.newsweek.com

United States Announced its Latest $200 million Aid Package to Ukraine. It'll including a large amount of munitions including AIM-9 Sidewinder missile, HIMARs Rockets, 105mm and 155mm Artillery Ammunition, and TOW Missiles as well as small arms ammunition. Plus demolition munitions and counter drove and electronic warfare equipment.

US Announces $200 Million in Ukraine Military Aid

Package includes air defense weapons, ammunition, demolition munitions, counter-drone equipment and electronic warfare equipment

www.voanews.com

Netherlands is Delivering a New Military Aid Package as Well.

 

[Husky_Khan]

US Intelligence Claims North Korea has shipped Russia hundreds of containers of military munitions and supplies in the past several weeks, starting on September 7th.





War Mapper Map of Alleged Russian Advances During their Multi-Battalion MultiDay Offensive Near Avdiivka which has been estimated in advances of a couple hundred yards across several days as well as Ukrainian Advances or Lack Thereof Recently on the Zaporizhzhia Front.



Spreadsheet of Total Documented Losses on Zaporizhzhia Front Since the Start of the Ukrainian CounterOffensive Updated Today.



Two grain laden cargo ships, one from Ukraine, one from Russia, collide with each other in the Sea of Marmara as they transit through the Dardanelles Channel. Very awkward.

Bulk carrier struck general cargo ship, Marmara sea, Turkey

Bulk carrier ASOMATOS while overtaking struck stern of general cargo ship HAJE HALIMEH at around 2110 UTC Oct 12, in Marmara sea north of Marmara island. HAJE HALIMEH stern sustained damages, ASOMATOS starboard forecastle and bow were it seems, dented ...

www.fleetmon.com

 

[Husky_Khan]

Analysis but mostly critical of the large multiday Russian offensive in Avdiivka from a Ukrainian POV. One piece of praise he credits the Russians with is that they were able to mass a large mechanized force with logistical support largely undernoticed

Thread by @Tendar on Thread Reader App

@Tendar: I would like to make an assessment of the momentarily situation around Avdiivka. Russians made a range of huge mistakes, but I would like to start with things which they did right. The first was to...…

threadreaderapp.com

In that fighting Russia has been documented as losing both the latest BTR and oldest BTR model in Russian service, the BTR-90 and BTR-50 respectively and both on the same day.



BTR-50's apparently re-entered Russian service in February of this year.



Ukrainian Forces Report the Downing of a Russian Mi-8 Transport Helicopter in the Luhansk Region in the East of Ukraine.



Ukrainian aligned Belarusian fighters utilizing a variety of weapons including AR-15 ASSAULT WEAPONS available to civilians.



Lindybeige interviewed a Canadian Medic who Volunteered for service in Ukraine. It's a three part series (so far anyways) that's been posted over the past couple months.

 

[Husky_Khan]

A large Russian Mechanized Offensive near the town of Mariinka, (it was also reported as near Avdiivka) which is located a few miles West of the city of Donetsk, was repelled with apparently heavy equipment losses including multiple tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.



Ukrainian Drone Drops Munitions upon a Russian Electrical Substation Located in the Belgorod Region.



War Against Artillery Platforms Continues. A Drone Drops Munitions Upon two Russian Msta Self Propelled Guns near Bakhmut.



Not the first time this has been documented as happening in this conflict actually, but apparently this BMP-2 has been lost by the Russians once... and thus the Ukrainians only once.



The extremely popular OSINT account covering equipment losses during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine Weapons Tracker will be shutting down and archived next week.



Mobilized troops of the 12th Guards Tank Regiment (Guards denoting their elite status within the Russian military) were reportedly sent into battle without artillery or heavy weapon support under the orders of their Lieutenant Colonel who was apparently drunk at the time. This combat mission apparently achieved very little success if you were wondering beyond the alleged suffering of three hundred casualties. Inexplicably the survivors stated they would not partake in future combat offensives without proper support (and presumably a sober command structure). In response dozens of these mutinous traitors to the Motherland were apprehended and imprisoned in the basement of a building that was being used as a rehabilitation center for recalcitrant soldiers...

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ After a drunken Russian officer ordered his lightly armed unit into a disastrous assault in which 300 men were lost, the survivors mutinied and refused to carry out further orders. They were reporte...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Buba]

Almost exactly 100 years ago the very same happened in the French Army ... for the same reasons ...

 

[Husky_Khan]

Looks like ATACMS have arrived. Strikes reported at an airbase at the occupied port of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and possibly also in the Luhansk Oblast.











The missiles used were apparently older cluster munitions made in the mid to late 90's.

 

[Husky_Khan]

It's been a rough week for the Russian Air Forces. Along with the first ATACMS strike upon Berdyansk Airbase, resulting in the destruction of reportedly nine helicopters, an Su-25 Attack Plane was apparently lost over Kherson as well, making it the fourth reported aircraft loss in just a week for the Russian Air Force.



More vehicle losses were also reported on the Avdiivka Front where Russia has been making repeated armored and mechanized assaults against well entrenched Ukrainian positions. The most curious loss here is of the STS Akhmat armored vehicles which were tailor made for Chechen Security Forces.



A Russian Missile Struck a Residential Apartment Complex in the City of Zaporizhzhia, killing at least five civilians.



Footage of the launch of three almost thirty year old M39 ATACMS Missiles towards their target by the AFU.



Satellite Imagery (and Ukrainian analysis in the quoted tweet) of the Berdyansk Airbase in the Aftermath of the ATACMS Strike. It looks like airfields both in Berdyansk and Luhansk were targeted. The one in Berdyansk consistently based Russian Attack Helicopters like the Ka-52 and Mi-24 and Mi-28 and it seems likely it was those model helicopters damaged or destroyed in the strike. Furthermore, other helicopters apparently haven't moved from their positions on the airfield since the attack.



The United Nations reports the breaching of the Kakhovka Dam in June costed an estimated $14 billion in loss and damages. This includes environmental damage, property loss, irrigation for farming and loss in power generation among other factors.

UN Reports 'Staggering' $14 Billion Cost of Ukraine Dam Breach

Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the Kakhovka dam, flooding the surrounding area with landmine-contaminated water and leaving areas upstream without water; Moscow has denied responsibility

www.voanews.com

 

[Scooby Doo]

So it seems like Drone Spam counters artillery and conventional Anti Air cause it's so cheap and mobile that it's hard to shoot down before it can be countered.

Drone Warfare on this scale really be doing changing Warfare, it'd be much harder for Ukraine to attack if Drones didn't exist.

 

[LordsFire]

So it seems like Drone Spam counters artillery and conventional Anti Air cause it's so cheap and mobile that it's hard to shoot down before it can be countered.

Drone Warfare on this scale really be doing changing Warfare, it'd be much harder for Ukraine to attack if Drones didn't exist.

Can counter artillery and conventional anti-air.

Part of the reason for what we're seeing right now, is because this is the first large-scale war with mass-deployment of low-end drones. Not only was neither side prepared for it, but neither side has the technological and economic base to rapidly develop and deploy well-designed counters to it.

Other nations that do have the tech and economic base to do so aren't directly participating in the war, so don't have the pressure to develop a counter right now, but you can bet it's being worked on.

Any number of possible counter-systems will be used. My money is that there'll be a development of 'Light SPAAGs' and anti-drone drones as a big part of the future of drone-saturated warfare.

If the prototype laser interception systems work out, those'll probably be important too.

 

[Bacle]

Can counter artillery and conventional anti-air.

Part of the reason for what we're seeing right now, is because this is the first large-scale war with mass-deployment of low-end drones. Not only was neither side prepared for it, but neither side has the technological and economic base to rapidly develop and deploy well-designed counters to it.

Other nations that do have the tech and economic base to do so aren't directly participating in the war, so don't have the pressure to develop a counter right now, but you can bet it's being worked on.

Any number of possible counter-systems will be used. My money is that there'll be a development of 'Light SPAAGs' and anti-drone drones as a big part of the future of drone-saturated warfare.

If the prototype laser interception systems work out, those'll probably be important too.

Drones are also making combat shotguns come back into style, as not a lot of the low end drones can handle a bunch of bird or buck shot slamming into it.

 

[Marduk]

Drones are also making combat shotguns come back into style, as not a lot of the low end drones can handle a bunch of bird or buck shot slamming into it.

The problem with those is target acquisition speed and ranges.
Skeet and trap shooting, with specialist shotguns, training and preparation, usually takes place at no more than 50-75m target distance, with the target going as fast as a slow drone. Outside of kamikaze drones, they have no reason to get that close. Bombers may want to for accuracy, but it's not necessary, also completely pointless for recon drones, which in some ways are the worst because they can spot for artillery.
Still, some sort of AAMG station may cover as much as a kilometer radius, while arranging pro level skeet shooter every 50m of frontline or so is far less realistic.
Meanwhile kamikaze FPVs generally fly at roughly 30-70m/s speed during attack, so the shotgunner would generally have less than a second to take a shot, and probably just one.

 

[Bacle]

The problem with those is target acquisition speed and ranges.
Skeet and trap shooting, with specialist shotguns, training and preparation, usually takes place at no more than 50-75m target distance, with the target going as fast as a slow drone. Outside of kamikaze drones, they have no reason to get that close. Bombers may want to for accuracy, but it's not necessary, also completely pointless for recon drones, which in some ways are the worst because they can spot for artillery.
Still, some sort of AAMG station may cover as much as a kilometer radius, while arranging pro level skeet shooter every 50m of frontline or so is far less realistic.
Meanwhile kamikaze FPVs generally fly at roughly 30-70m/s speed during attack, so the shotgunner would generally have less than a second to take a shot, and probably just one.

It's more I've seen shotguns used by people in Ukraine as personal/squad level AA against the kamikaze and bomber drones.

Not ideal, and not a huge range, but it's not that hard to give every squad/vic/unit someone with a auto-shotty, or just a decent pump action, to deal with drones in a physical manner, instead of relying on those anti-drone EM rifles that seem rather hit and miss and need batteries where a shotgun just needs shells.

 

[Marduk]

It's more I've seen shotguns used by people in Ukraine as personal/squad level AA against the kamikaze and bomber drones.

If the pilot does a stupid and gets too close and too slow, sure, but in that case a whole squad opening up with their rifles wouldn't do much worse either.

Not ideal, and not a huge range, but it's not that hard to give every squad/vic/unit someone with a auto-shotty, or just a decent pump action, to deal with drones in a physical manner, instead of relying on those anti-drone EM rifles that seem rather hit and miss and need batteries where a shotgun just needs shells.

The other option is going back to WW2.

Slap whatever GPMG available on something like that, slap a good thermal with ballistic computer on the GPMG, get minimalistic AA emplacement.