Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[Bacle]

If the pilot does a stupid and gets too close and too slow, sure, but in that case a whole squad opening up with their rifles wouldn't do much worse either.

The other option is going back to WW2.

Slap whatever GPMG available on something like that, slap a good thermal with ballistic computer on the GPMG, get minimalistic AA emplacement.

Sure, but the problem is that even with a AAMG, you are only firing one stream of bullets out of the barrel, instead of a spread.

Also, there is the issue of when the missed rounds land; lot less incidental/accidental damage from missed bird shot or buck shot compared to just aiming an MG or rifle into the air and letting out a large stream of round that will impact with much more damaging force for the rounds that miss the drones.

 

[Marduk]

Sure, but the problem is that even with a AAMG, you are only firing one stream of bullets out of the barrel, instead of a spread.

Oh it absolutely is a spread with the recoil these have.

Also, there is the issue of when the missed rounds land; lot less incidental/accidental damage from missed bird shot or buck shot compared to just aiming an MG or rifle into the air and letting out a large stream of round that will impact with much more damaging force for the rounds that miss the drones.

It's frontline, far worse stuff falls from the sky there normally.

 

[Zachowon]

So it seems like Drone Spam counters artillery and conventional Anti Air cause it's so cheap and mobile that it's hard to shoot down before it can be countered.

Drone Warfare on this scale really be doing changing Warfare, it'd be much harder for Ukraine to attack if Drones didn't exist.

It can be a counter, but conventional anti air is a large umbrella term.
Because the C-RAAM, MANTIS, and the Gepard are all in that umbrella.
The first two are a LOT better at large swarms the the third, but all are good against drones.
C-RAAM and MANTIS especially.
Just mount it on a mobile platform and boom, drones defense

 

[willdelve4beer]

It can be a counter, but conventional anti air is a large umbrella term.
Because the C-RAAM, MANTIS, and the Gepard are all in that umbrella.
The first two are a LOT better at large swarms the the third, but all are good against drones.
C-RAAM and MANTIS especially.
Just mount it on a mobile platform and boom, drones defense

I think there is a simpler solution. Drones are, pretty much by definition, remote operated. Given that the vast majority are barely adapted civilian models with mostly known frequencies, wouldn't it be feasible to jam the frequencies at which they operate? If so, they would simply continue on their last heading until running out of charge/fuel, then crash. Not as convenient or satisfying as shooting them down over the battlefield, but still removes them as a factor in battle area considerations.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

I think there is a simpler solution. Drones are, pretty much by definition, remote operated. Given that the vast majority are barely adapted civilian models with mostly known frequencies, wouldn't it be feasible to jam the frequencies at which they operate? If so, they would simply continue on their last heading until running out of charge/fuel, then crash. Not as convenient or satisfying as shooting them down over the battlefield, but still removes them as a factor in battle area considerations.

It's already available as an option, but Russia and Ukraine don't have the dedicated EW platforms (to my knowledge) that would enable the kind of coverage you would need.

Also...the quick response to that defense is a HARM missile which homes in on intense radio signals like that. SOooooo...it'll work.

An AEGIS radar is likely REALLY good at this as (someone more expert than me let me know if I'm wrong) they can just focus so much energy along a path that it will burn out unprotected electronics. While doing this, the rest of the ship can defend itself from any HARM missiles trying to kill it.

 

[planefag]

Can counter artillery and conventional anti-air.

Part of the reason for what we're seeing right now, is because this is the first large-scale war with mass-deployment of low-end drones. Not only was neither side prepared for it, but neither side has the technological and economic base to rapidly develop and deploy well-designed counters to it.

Other nations that do have the tech and economic base to do so aren't directly participating in the war, so don't have the pressure to develop a counter right now, but you can bet it's being worked on.

Any number of possible counter-systems will be used. My money is that there'll be a development of 'Light SPAAGs' and anti-drone drones as a big part of the future of drone-saturated warfare.

If the prototype laser interception systems work out, those'll probably be important too.

Correct on all counts. For an example of counter-drone drone tech being developed already, Leonidas POD has a system wherein an interceptor drone flies up to an intruder drone with a small mobile microwave emitter under it and fries them.

They also have a large (presumably AESA based) towed microwave emitter - essentially a DEW - to zap drones: Counter Electronics — Epirus, Inc.

Key to these systems are new detection systems. Existing radars are just not tuned for something with such a small RCS as a mostly-plastic drone that fits on a car seat, and other systems - like acoustic based, LIDAR and/or EO - are not nearly as simple to implement as radar is. Like with many things these days the biggest bottleneck is software.

It's already available as an option, but Russia and Ukraine don't have the dedicated EW platforms (to my knowledge) that would enable the kind of coverage you would need.

Also...the quick response to that defense is a HARM missile which homes in on intense radio signals like that. SOooooo...it'll work.

An AEGIS radar is likely REALLY good at this as (someone more expert than me let me know if I'm wrong) they can just focus so much energy along a path that it will burn out unprotected electronics. While doing this, the rest of the ship can defend itself from any HARM missiles trying to kill it.

The illumination radars on AEGIS ships used to guide their semi-active homing missiles are a perfect candidite for this kind of employment; I'd be surprised if someone hasn't written a whitepaper on possible re-purposing of them yet.

 

[Husky_Khan]

OSINT Nerds Report Documenting Four Russian Mi-8 and five Ka-52 Helicopters were destroyed in the ATACMS Attack on the occupied Berdyansk Airbase.



The ongoing Russian offensive along the Kupyansk Front North Eastern Ukraine reportedly meant to pin or distract Ukrainian forces, was pushed back in one area recently resulting in the recapture of lost territory



Ukrainian Forces Reportedly Engaged in Operations on the Russian Left Bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson.

 

[Zyobot]

My God, how the Russians just can't help themselves! 🤦‍♂️

 

[Zachowon]

I think there is a simpler solution. Drones are, pretty much by definition, remote operated. Given that the vast majority are barely adapted civilian models with mostly known frequencies, wouldn't it be feasible to jam the frequencies at which they operate? If so, they would simply continue on their last heading until running out of charge/fuel, then crash. Not as convenient or satisfying as shooting them down over the battlefield, but still removes them as a factor in battle area considerations.

Jammer xan work, they just are giant targets

It's already available as an option, but Russia and Ukraine don't have the dedicated EW platforms (to my knowledge) that would enable the kind of coverage you would need.

Also...the quick response to that defense is a HARM missile which homes in on intense radio signals like that. SOooooo...it'll work.

An AEGIS radar is likely REALLY good at this as (someone more expert than me let me know if I'm wrong) they can just focus so much energy along a path that it will burn out unprotected electronics. While doing this, the rest of the ship can defend itself from any HARM missiles trying to kill it.

Not just HARMs. It makes all things thay target emitters find you.

 

[LordsFire]

Correct on all counts.

Sempai noticed me.

 

[Husky_Khan]

The Russian attacks upon Avdiivka continues as they have for a week now. In one clip, you can see two Russian armored vehicles so close together they are destroyed by the same explosion.



Some Russian Accounts Stating They've Lost More Equipment in One Week Near Avdiivka then the Ukrainians during their entire Summer Offensive in Zaporizhzhia.



Another Russian TOS-1A Thermobaric MLRS Blows Up Brilliantly from a Ukrainian FPV Drone Strike.



Ukrainian produced 'Novastar' Armored Vehicle, apparently made to be mine resistant.



Russia took another American journalist hostage. Alsu Kurmasheva who was currently a reporter for Radio Free Europe was arrested by Russian authorities for "failure to register as a foreign agent." Since she is a dual citizen, she is being denied consular access. She's been in Russian custody since being detained at the airport for her return flight on June 2nd after visiting her family in May due to some family emergency. Earlier in March, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested for spying by the Russians.

American journalist detained in Russia for failing to register as foreign agent

U.S. journalist Alsu Kurmasheva was detained Wednesday in Russia for failing to register as a foreign agent, according to her employer.

www.usatoday.com

 

[lloyd007]

Some Russian Accounts Stating They've Lost More Equipment in One Week Near Avdiivka then the Ukrainians during their entire Summer Offensive in Zaporizhzhia.

To the soldier requesting a massive sustained artillery campaign similar to the one that allowed Wagner to take Bakhmut... Prigozhin is dead and your current leadership both close by and in the Kremlin were made very annoyed by his incessant complaining about not having enough fire support so you are getting short artillery bombardments and your vehicles will do fine for the rest... what do you mean the Ukrainians are using RC cars to lay AT mines on the cleared paths?

Ukrainian produced 'Novastar' Armored Vehicle, apparently made to be mine resistant.

Ukraine is reaping the rewards of two decades of the WoT against IED wielding jihadis.

 

[Husky_Khan]

The Russian attacks upon Avdiivka continues as they have for a week now. In one clip, you can see two Russian armored vehicles so close together they are destroyed by the same explosion.



Some Russian Accounts Stating They've Lost More Equipment in One Week Near Avdiivka then the Ukrainians during their entire Summer Offensive in Zaporizhzhia.

And now Naalsio is compiling the documented losses of both the Russians and Ukrainians in the Avdiivka area.



Still a fraction of the recent totals from the Zaporizhzhia offensive documented but still quite a significant amount.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Perun released a new video talking about the impact of several new weapons systems upon the War in Ukraine that oftentimes were exaggerated in their effectiveness such as being revolutionary. The video is titled 'Game Changers.'



It covers the use by Ukraine of Javelins and other ATGTM's briefly, as well as the M270 MLRS/HIMARS initially with GMLRS rockets and now very recently the long anticipated ATACMS guided missiles... that are twenty five plus years old. He compares this to the Russians use of the much touted TOS-1 Thermobaric MLRS. He also covers the Russian Lancet Loitering Munition, Leopard Main Battle Tanks and Russia's BMPT or Terminator Armored Fighting Vehicles before other general remarks on the so-called "game changers" in this conflict.

The YouTuber Covert Cabal tortured himself by counting how many BMP's and "other armored fighting vehicles" Russia has in storage that can be seen on satellite data. TLDW... it's about 8917 Armored Fighting Vehicles including 3677 BMP's all of which are in unknown conditions or at the current rate of losses if there's no replacement... about three to three and a half years worth of said vehicles.



Wall Street Journal article covers the 'artillery war' ongoing in Ukraine and restates the estimation that 70% of Ukrainian casualties are from Russian artillery and how Russia has been losing a disproportionate amount of artillery platforms recently.



Number of Estimated Helicopter Losses in the ATACMS strike upon the Berdyansk Airbase Increased. It's now at eight Ka-52 Helicopters destroyed, eight more damaged and two Mi-8 Helicopters destroyed with seven more damaged though he notes that the damaged helicopters are likely seriously damaged if irreparable and thus as good as destroyed.



The United Nations *takes a deep breath* Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine released a report documented and detailing crimes perpetrated by the Russian Invaders upon the Ukrainians they're still trying to liberate. In brief they include a range of criminal behavior and war crimes ranging from murder and torture, to rape and other sexual violence, as well as the abduction and kidnapping of people, including unaccompanied children.

UN Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine finds continued war crimes and human rights violations gravely impacting civilians   

As the armed conflict in Ukraine continues in its second year, it has further contributed to suffering and hardships for thousands of affected civilians. 

ukraine.un.org

Here's a tweet of one account referenced in the report.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Alongside Avdiivka, Russian Forces are engaging in offensives in Kupyansk in Northeastern Ukraine, fighting over much of the same ground that was the extent of the Ukrainian Advance during last Falls Kharkiv Counteroffensive. One of the major formations involved is the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, the same major formation that defends Moscow. There have been reports of both confirmed Russian advances, but also successful Ukrainian counterattacks as well with heavy fighting despite the belief that the Kupyansk offensive is meant as a distraction to pin down and distract Ukrainian forces.

There's a recent report by ChrisO of how not just Storm Z Penal Units but also soldiers from other specialties, including 1st Guards Army elite Tankers have been used as infantry in this costly assaults in the previous weeks, sustaining hundreds of casualties and many documented vehicle losses.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ More details have emerged of events relating to a recent disastrous offensive in which 300 Russians are said to have died. Survivors say their commander called them "a piece of meat" and told them...…

threadreaderapp.com

Regarding Avdiivka, a Ukrainian Journalist Offered some analysis on the fighting there. One of the more fresh takeaways is how the Ukrainian defenders in that area are exhausted and require replenishment after weeks of near constant fighting despite inflicting heavy casualties on the advancing Russians. Also one of the Russian objectives of drawing more Ukrainian units to the area reportedly didn't succeed as of yet.



Germans have budgeted 4 billion Euros worth of military aid for Ukraine in 2024.



A Recent German Aid Package includes a few more Gepard SPAAG's, more drones and 155mm artillery ammunition among other things.



The Russians Might've Shot Down Another of their rarer fancy modern helicopters, an Mi-8MTV...



Speaking of Helicopter Losses, the Documented Losses of Russian Attack Helicopters Seems Considerable...



And finally, Russian media and propaganda is now praising their BFF's in North Korea. Along with the more gorunded and understandable statements regarding the benefits of North Korean arms trade, they've also been stating how Pyongyang is a thriving metropolis, that South Koreans are actually fleeing into North Korea and need to be stopped and that Russia will soon get a North Korean ATACMS equivalent, the KN-25 MLRS.

Thread by @SamRamani2 on Thread Reader App

@SamRamani2: Russian Telegram channels are hailing their alliance with North Korea and whitewashing North Korea's totalitarian system Some of the more interesting reactions here /1 Fascist philosopher Alexander Dugi...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[ATP]

Alongside Avdiivka, Russian Forces are engaging in offensives in Kupyansk in Northeastern Ukraine, fighting over much of the same ground that was the extent of the Ukrainian Advance during last Falls Kharkiv Counteroffensive. One of the major formations involved is the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, the same major formation that defends Moscow. There have been reports of both confirmed Russian advances, but also successful Ukrainian counterattacks as well with heavy fighting despite the belief that the Kupyansk offensive is meant as a distraction to pin down and distract Ukrainian forces.

There's a recent report by ChrisO of how not just Storm Z Penal Units but also soldiers from other specialties, including 1st Guards Army elite Tankers have been used as infantry in this costly assaults in the previous weeks, sustaining hundreds of casualties and many documented vehicle losses.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ More details have emerged of events relating to a recent disastrous offensive in which 300 Russians are said to have died. Survivors say their commander called them "a piece of meat" and told them...…

threadreaderapp.com

Regarding Avdiivka, a Ukrainian Journalist Offered some analysis on the fighting there. One of the more fresh takeaways is how the Ukrainian defenders in that area are exhausted and require replenishment after weeks of near constant fighting despite inflicting heavy casualties on the advancing Russians. Also one of the Russian objectives of drawing more Ukrainian units to the area reportedly didn't succeed as of yet.



Germans have budgeted 4 billion Euros worth of military aid for Ukraine in 2024.



A Recent German Aid Package includes a few more Gepard SPAAG's, more drones and 155mm artillery ammunition among other things.



The Russians Might've Shot Down Another of their rarer fancy modern helicopters, an Mi-8MTV...



Speaking of Helicopter Losses, the Documented Losses of Russian Attack Helicopters Seems Considerable...



And finally, Russian media and propaganda is now praising their BFF's in North Korea. Along with the more gorunded and understandable statements regarding the benefits of North Korean arms trade, they've also been stating how Pyongyang is a thriving metropolis, that South Koreans are actually fleeing into North Korea and need to be stopped and that Russia will soon get a North Korean ATACMS equivalent, the KN-25 MLRS.

Thread by @SamRamani2 on Thread Reader App

@SamRamani2: Russian Telegram channels are hailing their alliance with North Korea and whitewashing North Korea's totalitarian system Some of the more interesting reactions here /1 Fascist philosopher Alexander Dugi...…

threadreaderapp.com

Ha! i always suspected,that North Korea is paradise and poor South Koreans are running there,now,thanks to our KGB friends it is confirmed! Who is running to North Korea with me?

 

[Husky_Khan]

Developments/Disagreements regarding the Battle of Avdiivka as to the strategic significance of a Garbage Dump/Slag Heap and its possible implications regarding the defenses of that city or even if its been properly captured by the Russians.





Russian Forces have managed to scrounge up more volunteers in the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics, University and School Students who can now take an "academic leave" so they can serve in their War of Liberation!



Fairly old Hawk Air Defense Systems Now Being Used by Ukraine in Active Service. There was a reported successful engagement of low flying Shahed drones at night by one Ukrainian system recently.

First Look At Hawk SAMs Now In Action In Ukraine

U.S.-made Hawk systems give the Ukrainian military added medium-range air and missile defense coverage it sorely needs.

www.thedrive.com

Recently built Amulet Anti-Tank Missile Launcher Remote Weapon Station mounted on a Western Humvee.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-has-integrated-the-amulet-atgm-on-the-hmmwv-chassis/

 

[Buba]

Hawk against drones? Isn't that like shooting mice with a tank cannon?

As to the "waste heap" - I remember reading (no sure thing ) about mounds of tailings being important tactically "hills" in flat places, e.g. North France in WWI.
BTW - the highest thing in my part of Warsaw is this:

In flat Mazowia this trash heap is visible from 30 km away ...

 

[Husky_Khan]

Hawk against drones? Isn't that like shooting mice with a tank cannon?

Pretty much. I love the aesthetic of early Cold War missiles like the S-125/S-200 and Hawx. Just a giant missile platform aimed angrily at the sky. It's so iconic.

I don't think it's a concern cost effective wise though since the Hawk missiles being used probably weren't going to be used anyways. The main opportunity cost would be Ukraine using Hawk missiles against these shitty drones as compared to some other target that they could be engaging like a cruise missile (x to doubt) or jet or helicopter (more reasonable).

As to the "waste heap" - I remember reading (no sure thing ) about mounds of tailings being important tactically "hills" in flat places, e.g. North France in WWI.
BTW - the highest thing in my part of Warsaw is this:

In flat Mazowia this trash heap is visible from 30 km away ...

Yeah the lack of bodies and destroyed equipment might mean the slag heap (its more described as a slag heap I guess) is unsuitable for military operations so you can establish at best an observation post on there.

 

[Buba]

I don't think it's a concern cost effective wise though since the Hawk missiles being used probably weren't going to be used anyways.

I also had the suspicion that there could be an "use it or lose it" element behind such overkill.
Or getting that equipment for free
Thinking about it - maybe top end airplanes/missile are beyond its cabability, hence using it against something it can kill is a Good Thing.