LifeisTiresome
Well-known member
Gotcha. And anyway, I suspect even if you were him, you wouldn't admit it for safety sake.None, except we bear the same name and are both interested in history and swordplay.
So, about the birthrate question?
Gotcha. And anyway, I suspect even if you were him, you wouldn't admit it for safety sake.None, except we bear the same name and are both interested in history and swordplay.
Lots of the more traditional groups in the West (basically: very religious people) are seeing an end to decline in birth-rate, edging over to a return in growth. Having fewer and fewer kids seems tied to secular "modernism". The same people who insist their paradigm is the future. Well, for that to work, they'd have to inherit the earth. Not happening.So, about the birthrate question?
No, I mentioned that stage. That's in the 2060s. They will definitely try it. It will definitely not work. You can't pay people off with Zimbabwean dollars, and that's where we're going.This assumes the lower classes won’t be bought off by Mammon with thirty pieces of silver for the Optimates to enshrine their rule through means sociological or technological indefinitely.
But you can use the most advanced forms of social engineering, propaganda, indoctrination and manipulation that have two centuries of science behind them to maintain the social order at all costs.No, I mentioned that stage. That's in the 2060s. They will definitely try it. It will definitely not work. You can't pay people off with Zimbabwean dollars, and that's where we're going.
That's already happening, and it's going to get way more elaborate. For sure.But you can use the most advanced forms of social engineering, propaganda, indoctrination and manipulation that have two centuries of science behind them to maintain the social order at all costs.
I’m somewhat pessimistic that the proles will ever awaken en masse. So long as they have their base distractions and the sophistication of the propaganda to manipulate them grows ever deeper and more elaborate. We could be looking at the rule of the Populares indefinitely.That's already happening, and it's going to get way more elaborate. For sure.
But that's why it's all, ah, "taking so long". And why my outline isn't much more contracted. Spengler thought Caesar might actually be here by now! But no. It always takes longer than you think. And what you are describing is part of the reason for that.
Nothing under heaven is indefinite.I’m somewhat pessimistic that the proles will ever awaken en masse. So long as they have their base distractions and the sophistication of the propaganda to manipulate them grows ever deeper and more elaborate. We could be looking at the rule of the Populares indefinitely.
What makes you think the elites of Europe, China and the US won’t come to some sort of accord and implement a globalist technocratic communism?Nothing under heaven is indefinite.
A key thing to remember is that the current economy, and its supposed affluence, is one very big soap bubble. It is straining. It is under stress. And the chosen way to keep it going is to rack up the debt, devaluate the currency, and promise people free stuff (paid for by that increasingly worthless currency). That recipe has never, once, in all of recorded history, worked out in the long term. The reasons why it always fails are obvious, and they are intrinsic. This current situation is not going to be the magical exception.
People talk about the Chinese system (social credit). They ignore that what's happening in China works for one reason: today is better than ten years ago, which was better than ten years before that, which was better than.... et cetera. People remember how shitty it was not-that-long-ago, so they'll accept quite a lot as long as there is real growth, and they have reason to believe their kids will have better jobs and lives than they do now. In the West, that trend is already reversed. Things are getting worse. So social reactions to the thumb-screws will not be the same. It all depends on how much you have to lose. Literally the reason why you correctly argue that China's present regime may last for some time: the average Chinese person has more to lose every year. The average Westerner has less to lose every year.
People also talk about about the masses being made dependent on a basic income. They ignore that a basic income is an ass-backward idea that is financially impossible. Do the math. You're either looking at something that requires full communism and taxes in the region of 120% GDP (literally impossible), or you'll retain a half-way functional economy but the basic income is a pittance that's just enough to starve on. (Possible solution to the money deficit for a 'high' basic income: print money like it's going out of style. Result: worthless money, so same outcome as the pittance. You think they won't be stupid enough to try that? I remind you that Paul Krugman exists and got a Nobel Prize. They are that stupid.)
What makes you think the elites of Europe, China and the US won’t come to some sort of accord and implement a globalist technocratic communism?
1. I don't think their mutual trust is sufficiently developed, nor do I believe that it will develop. (In fact, I expect increasing distrust.)What makes you think the elites of Europe, China and the US won’t come to some sort of accord and implement a globalist technocratic communism?
The latter is accurate, because if the rulers of Earth implemented something that stupid, they'd be so screwed that a bunch of hard-scrabble settlers desperately trying to dig out a living in a place without an atmosphere would literally be more secure. (Financially and otherwise.)When I think about it, this is sounding like the backstories of some Libertarian SciFi that have the plot of “Earth is fucked, let’s leave”
With the side effect that Earth is gonna come for them at some point, both because they need a scapegoat and because they will be able to get lots of tax money from these new nations
The point of such an accord and system would be a final effort to maintain the social order and keep the masses from their gates, hopefully indefinitely. Even if it achieved nothing else.Still supposing that they try it, things will only get worse. Is there something about the words "globalist technocratic communism" than inspires confidence in you? It would be an utter shitshow!
The latter is accurate, because if the rulers of Earth implemented something that stupid, they'd be so screwed that a bunch of hard-scrabble settlers desperately trying to dig out a living in a place without an atmosphere would literally be more secure. (Financially and otherwise.)
The latter is accurate, because if the rulers of Earth implemented something that stupid, they'd be so screwed that a bunch of hard-scrabble settlers desperately trying to dig out a living in a place without an atmosphere would literally be more secure. (Financially and otherwise.)
I mentioned why the Chinese would not need it. It's a lot of effort, for no gain. If the West implodes and then gets reborn as an Empire -- so much the better. Much more orderly than a podwer-keg attached to the ass-end of your continent. (Because that's how they see it, naturally.)The point of such an accord and system would be a final effort to maintain the social order and keep the masses from their gates, hopefully indefinitely. Even if it achieved nothing else.
Will it? I don't expect space colonisation to happen quickly. (They expected it quickly six decades ago. See how that turned out.) It's not inconceivable that if a Universal Empire is established, it might undertake such efforts during its Principate. Why not? At some point, well-contained nuclear fusion is going to be hammered out, and once you have that, you have a torch-ship.Which goes to think, how will space colonisation affect this cycle?
They would be right not to. Leto II has foreseen it. We must scatter. This is the true Golden Path.@Skallagrim
And even if FTL and FTL Communications and fast/easy arcologies and terraforming were possible
I think there would be people purposely NOT contacting the homeworld
They would be right not to. Leto II has foreseen it. We must scatter. This is the true Golden Path.
To quote Herbert on that particular misconception:Even Isaac Asimov seems to agree with it....right up until he says a new Galactic Empire has to be made that’s “federalized”
To quote Herbert on that particular misconception:
"And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning That path leads ever down into stagnation."