Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022



Russian VDV back in Bucha, a clear indication the UkA counter-attack has petered out.



Izium and Kramatorsk are the spots to watch.

That is a very small front.
Horrible idea to push that far with so little. Can get yourself cut off and not get supplies.
Like the UKR have been doing.
 
Russia isn't going into Romania or Bulgaria. Once they hit the border, it only becomes a question of timing for when they grab the Russian controlled bit of Moldova though.

Russia invading a NATO country is just as much a redline at the moment as NATO deploying military forces into Ukraine/against Russia.

If Russia is prepared to eat the economic & diplomatic damage, they will be allowed to grab off Ukraine and that bit of Moldova (and no, Moldova won't be allowed into NATO before that). But Russia won't be allowed to go further.

While Russia would like to also grab off Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia; they probably get bogged down enough in Ukraine to not make the attempt.

If Russia moves past Moldova towards Romania or Bulgaria, Turkey will move North to defend them even if no one else will. Turkey very much does not want to share a border with Russia.

The Baltic states aren't going to be allowed into NATO, but they absolutely will be given trainers and military equipment sufficient to make a future Russian attack into another quagmire.
Baltics are already in nato
 


So between this and Hannity calling for the Russian military to coup Putin, it's starting to seem like the DC establishment may be willing to risk WW3 to get rid of Putin.


No, they aren’t. We got through the Cold War without it (though we did come close on a few occasions), but believe it or not, they’re still human, they all have families, and they don’t want them all to die in nuclear war or a post-apocalyptic setting

In fairness, I'm reasonably certain there were nutters in the Duma calling for Trump or Obama before him to be assassinated or torn apart by ravenous mobs of Americans and what-have-you.

And the defining aspect of politician tough-talk like this, especially when it's popular, is that there is no consequence and it has little credence. Graham and others (up to and including Biden) are talking tough, but the only concrete aid thus far has been in the realm of arms and rhetoric that many-a conflict in the past between the US and Russia have seen both engage in to favor their proxy.
Russia's just more direct on their end this time.

I’m not sure about that specifically, but there have been guys advocating for dumping radioactive dust into the Baltics (the head of the LDP, whose name I forget and don’t care enough to look up), among other things.

The Baltic states aren't going to be allowed into NATO, but they absolutely will be given trainers and military equipment sufficient to make a future Russian attack into another quagmire.

Baltics are already in nato

As King Arts said, they are already in, unless you are suggesting NATO won’t admit Sweden or Finland, which would be incredibly stupid given 1) They’re already well integrated with NATO forces, 2) They both have sizable standing militaries, and 3) Would cause more geopolitical headaches for Moscow with little cost to NATO or themselves.

Yeah, it’ll make Putin have an aneurysm because it means NATO could easily choke off Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg from Baltic access, and allows us to more easily reinforce the Baltics. So I say we absolutely should.
 
No, they aren’t. We got through the Cold War without it (though we did come close on a few occasions), but believe it or not, they’re still human, they all have families, and they don’t want them all to die in nuclear war or a post-apocalyptic setting
Actually, a lot of Congress don't have kids, or really 'families' as we would think of them.

Many of them are more interested in trying to live as long as possible via life-extension tech/uploading, than in procreating/having a normal family.

And the ones tht do have families will likely get said families priority access to fallout shelters and the like, so they have less to fear than the plebs in the event of nuclear war.

Also, don't forget many of them are old Cold Warriors as well, who are itching for a chance to crush Russia once and for all, even if it means risking nuclear war to achieve it.
 
The Baltic states aren't going to be allowed into NATO, but they absolutely will be given trainers and military equipment sufficient to make a future Russian attack into another quagmire.

They're already in NATO. Unless you're thinking of them getting kicked out of NATO?
 


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Reserve stocks coming up for the Urban Combat Phase



Looks like a Guards Unit here.

The War in Ukraine

Looks like the Russians are moving around Mykolaiv in force. They did some patrols around it the past few days that subsequently pulled back, but now are going in force.

Mariupol itself is now being fought for. Won't last long.

There is also a push on Rubizhne and Sievierodonetsk, likely to prevent forces from escaping the bigger cauldron being built at Izium and Kramatorsk.

Not seeing a push on Poltava yet, but its highly likely.
 

Considering the beneficiaries were probably all SJWNPC manufacturers, welll..

Also, for a single person that might be a lot, but a whole US state's teachers pension fund probably has money in the low billions/high 100s of millions.

13 million is a drop in the bucket, also why the fuck aren't they just putting their money in ETFs?

Oh, yeah, right, they believe that overpriced hedge funds and advisors are worth it.
 
Like other posters...the downsides to geeking Putin are pretty dang bad.

Putin goes and you'll likely see a fight over Russia that'll make the fall of Yugoslavia look like a scuffle between the Sharks and the Jets.

And in any case, if you try killing Putin but fail, it's off with your head, as Stauffenberg learned in Nazi Germany in regards to Hitler in 1944.
 
Putin would most likely kill the assassin himself.

I don't believe that he doesn't go around these days with a concealed pistol on himself.

not to mention a bulletproof underlayer in his suits.
 
Anyone trying to kill Putin would just poison all the food at that meal. It would kill everyone at the table as collateral damage but it would also get Putin. I am not advocating for assassinations by the way.
 
So far, I must say I am mightily impressed by the sheer bloody mindedness of the Ukrainian Army. They are effectively making Russia pay for every inch and I'm shocked the Kremlin thought it would be any other way. Don't let the Cold War kit fool you, this is a large and coordinated army fighting for the existence of its homeland. And Cold War kit is still dangerous enough.

A quick and easy victory was never on the cards.

Ultimately I think 2014 and Crimea put silly ideas in Putin's head and he's badly misjudged the Ukrainian will to resist. I think there is a chance the war drags on and they bleed Russia so badly that Moscow must negotiate with Kyiv. This is a possibility as, in order to occupy Ukraine (regardless of following hideous insurgency) the Russians have to overcome roughly half a million very angry Ukrainian soldiers.
 

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