Kinda... A small, wooden cannon. It's a very old system, and it's range and mobility reflect that. As such, it would be risky yet ineffective to use it at the frontline against tac jets, so Ukrainians, when they get an opportunity, would probably prefer to take that shot with a more capable system with a good chance of getting a kill, and from a safer range at that.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022
- Thread starter killerofa23
- Start date
gral
Well-known member
Minesweeping is dangerous work.
Covert Cabal released an updated video counting Russian tank totals since their last video many months ago. Some insights he made was that the methodology he used in his video makes a rough estimate of Russia losting 57 tanks a month in this conflict since March while a source like Oryx documents the loss of 75 tanks a month through losses documented in various forms of media and reports since October of 2022. The numbers would match up almost perfectly if you also consider Russia might be building up a couple dozen new tanks per month.
According to his numbers Russia has 5450 Tanks in storage total with 3525 in "good" condition. He states this is a decline of about 400 tanks from April of 2023 to October of 2023 (though the satellite data can be weeks/months old in some cases in both respects so it could have declined even more) and nearly 1200 since a year ago.
He also breaks it down tanks by type from April to October though with even more chance of error:
T-55: 270 -> 218
T-62: 560 -> 362
T-62: 248 -> 250
T-72: 1841 -> 1735
T-80: 942 -> 910
T-90: 50 -> 50
So it's a lot of older tanks that are actually disappearing from Russian tank parks. Covert Cabal hypothesizes the reason older tanks are being put into service is due older tanks being simpler to refurbish and bring into service to send to Ukraine plus larger numbers of T-72's and T-80's are still supposed to be modernized as part of an ongoing program and the ones in the best condition were likely already being modernized or planned to be.
He also discusses how the vehicles might be overcounted due to the existence of things like engineering vehicles, as well as why it would be unlikely that there are large numbers of decoys being used to inflate numbers.
OSINT mapper John Helin released a long thread analyzing the recent offensive in Avdiivka and what the logistical routes into the city are for Ukraine, how Russia could threaten them and the city itself and the terrain (Avdiivka being a long city located on a ridge) and how under the current Russian pressure at least, Avdiivka doesn't seem to be in danger of falling soon.
threadreaderapp.com
Speaking of Avdiivka, updated documented losses from that Battle.
And updated heavy equipment losses from the Zaporizhzhia Front.
Russian T-72 FrankenTank. A modernized T-72B3 Hull with a T-72B1 Turret mounted on it.
Russia states Ukrainian Loitering Munition Strikes in Kursk didn't affect the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant but now states they did attempt to repeatedly strike the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant but thankfully only crashed into a wall and hit the administrative building.
According to his numbers Russia has 5450 Tanks in storage total with 3525 in "good" condition. He states this is a decline of about 400 tanks from April of 2023 to October of 2023 (though the satellite data can be weeks/months old in some cases in both respects so it could have declined even more) and nearly 1200 since a year ago.
He also breaks it down tanks by type from April to October though with even more chance of error:
T-55: 270 -> 218
T-62: 560 -> 362
T-62: 248 -> 250
T-72: 1841 -> 1735
T-80: 942 -> 910
T-90: 50 -> 50
So it's a lot of older tanks that are actually disappearing from Russian tank parks. Covert Cabal hypothesizes the reason older tanks are being put into service is due older tanks being simpler to refurbish and bring into service to send to Ukraine plus larger numbers of T-72's and T-80's are still supposed to be modernized as part of an ongoing program and the ones in the best condition were likely already being modernized or planned to be.
He also discusses how the vehicles might be overcounted due to the existence of things like engineering vehicles, as well as why it would be unlikely that there are large numbers of decoys being used to inflate numbers.
OSINT mapper John Helin released a long thread analyzing the recent offensive in Avdiivka and what the logistical routes into the city are for Ukraine, how Russia could threaten them and the city itself and the terrain (Avdiivka being a long city located on a ridge) and how under the current Russian pressure at least, Avdiivka doesn't seem to be in danger of falling soon.
Thread by @J_JHelin on Thread Reader App
@J_JHelin: I saw someone mapping the Ukrainian supply routes into Avdiivka in a rather lacklustre way. So I decided to do my own, more informative, map. To talk about the logistics of Avdiivka we also need to...…
threadreaderapp.com
Speaking of Avdiivka, updated documented losses from that Battle.
And updated heavy equipment losses from the Zaporizhzhia Front.
Russian T-72 FrankenTank. A modernized T-72B3 Hull with a T-72B1 Turret mounted on it.
Russia states Ukrainian Loitering Munition Strikes in Kursk didn't affect the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant but now states they did attempt to repeatedly strike the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant but thankfully only crashed into a wall and hit the administrative building.
It does say something about the relative quality of troops, equipment and tactics between the Russians and Ukrainians that while the Zaphorizhia offensive is near parity in equipment losses (with Ukrainians using much more survivable NATO or inspired vehicles), for the Russians in Avdiivka basically this is their theme with massively disproportional losses:
Colonel-General Oleg Makarevich, the Commander of the Russian Forces along the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast of Southern Ukraine was replaced. Russian Airborne General Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky whose pretty popular, has been chosen to replace him.
This may be due to the news of the past weeks and months of various Ukrainian raids and temporary lodgments made on the Russian controlled side of the River that sometimes resulted in reportedly serious Russian casualties. Just recently was reported another Ukrainian landing in the region.
threadreaderapp.com
The new not Russian approved Black Seas Humanitarian Corridor is still in operation with over fifty ships having transported over two million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products abroad.
Ukraine is forming a "Siberian" Battalion to be comprised of Russian citizens who descend of Tartars, Tuvans, Buryats, Yakuts and other ethnic groups.
A Ukrainian Territorial Defense soldier born in Uzbekistan and who lived in Crimea, was killed in action recently. Rest in Peace Nariman Seitmemetov.
The first reported Russian Female Officer Killed In Ukraine. Rest in Peace Lieutenant Sadkova Elena Vladimirovna, a military Doctor who was killed on the firing range while engaging in marksmanship training. Apparently the firing range for marksmanship training was within Ukrainian artillery range...
Ukrainian forces recently suffered five Leopard 2 Tanks Destroyed or Damaged in Less Then A Week on the Zaporozhye front. Reportedly all of them were struck by Russian FPV style drones. One of the possible explanations maybe due to the Ukrainian Mechanized forces there engaging in larger armor backed offensives in the daytime as opposed to night time as typical.
www.forbes.com
In November of 2022 two Ukrainian Greek Catholic Priests were apprehended by Russian authorities in the occupied Port City of Berdyansk for suspicion of being involved in partisan and subversive activities. Some argue it was done in retaliation to Ukrainian authorities conducting a search of a monastery in Kyiv that is owned by the Russian aligned Moscow Patriarche.
Russian authorities have stated that the two priests are awaiting trial as soon as courts are set up in the "new' territories and denied access to them from outsiders who wish to check on their welfare.
This isn't the first time Russian authorities have arrested, tortured and even murdered "Western" Religious figures. In November of 2022 a fifty two year old Deacon of the Pentecostal Church in Ukraine, Anatoly Prokopchuk and his teenage son were captured by Russian authorities, tortured and then executed.
catholicreview.org
This may be due to the news of the past weeks and months of various Ukrainian raids and temporary lodgments made on the Russian controlled side of the River that sometimes resulted in reportedly serious Russian casualties. Just recently was reported another Ukrainian landing in the region.
Thread by @GloOouD on Thread Reader App
@GloOouD: 🧵| KHERSON OFFENSIVE 🇺🇦Ukrainian soldiers successfully landed and established a position on the left bank of the Dnipro river. Part of the village Krynky was liberated from the Russians and right now the br...…
threadreaderapp.com
The new not Russian approved Black Seas Humanitarian Corridor is still in operation with over fifty ships having transported over two million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products abroad.
Ukraine is forming a "Siberian" Battalion to be comprised of Russian citizens who descend of Tartars, Tuvans, Buryats, Yakuts and other ethnic groups.
A Ukrainian Territorial Defense soldier born in Uzbekistan and who lived in Crimea, was killed in action recently. Rest in Peace Nariman Seitmemetov.
The first reported Russian Female Officer Killed In Ukraine. Rest in Peace Lieutenant Sadkova Elena Vladimirovna, a military Doctor who was killed on the firing range while engaging in marksmanship training. Apparently the firing range for marksmanship training was within Ukrainian artillery range...
Ukrainian forces recently suffered five Leopard 2 Tanks Destroyed or Damaged in Less Then A Week on the Zaporozhye front. Reportedly all of them were struck by Russian FPV style drones. One of the possible explanations maybe due to the Ukrainian Mechanized forces there engaging in larger armor backed offensives in the daytime as opposed to night time as typical.
The Russians Reportedly Knocked Out Two More Ukrainian Leopard 2 Tanks. That’s Five Leopard 2 Losses In A Week.
Russian drones seem to be responsible for most of the five recent Leopard 2A4 kills.
www.forbes.com
In November of 2022 two Ukrainian Greek Catholic Priests were apprehended by Russian authorities in the occupied Port City of Berdyansk for suspicion of being involved in partisan and subversive activities. Some argue it was done in retaliation to Ukrainian authorities conducting a search of a monastery in Kyiv that is owned by the Russian aligned Moscow Patriarche.
Catholic News said:
Russian authorities have stated that the two priests are awaiting trial as soon as courts are set up in the "new' territories and denied access to them from outsiders who wish to check on their welfare.
Catholic News said:
This isn't the first time Russian authorities have arrested, tortured and even murdered "Western" Religious figures. In November of 2022 a fifty two year old Deacon of the Pentecostal Church in Ukraine, Anatoly Prokopchuk and his teenage son were captured by Russian authorities, tortured and then executed.
Fate of two captured Ukrainian Catholic priests still unknown, says investigator - Catholic Review
The fate of two Ukrainian Greek Catholic priests remains unknown almost a year after their capture by the Russian National Guard amid Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Forum 18, an Oslo, Norway-based news service that covers religious and intellectual freedom violations in...
catholicreview.org
Estimations made on the amount of military aid North Korea recently sent to Russia, the second most powerful military in the world. Tatarigami and his team estimates from September through the end of October, North Korea shipped about two thousand twenty foot cargo containers via train to Russia which could contain a conservative estimation of 500,000 122mm and 152mm artillery shells.
They also hypothesize towards the end of the article that the rounds were likely manufactured between 2000-2010 and so are not Soviet-era munitions but based on previous analysis of North Korean munitions, the quality could still be low, as sometimes the dud rate of North Korean ammunition did approach 25%.
frontelligence.substack.com
One of the things Russia might've offered in exchange for the munitions support from North Korea is assisting North Korea with the implementation of their recon satellite program.
www.themoscowtimes.com
Recent polling in Russia reveals 70% of Russian respondents are open to ending the War with Ukraine if the Russians can keep the territory they conquered. However 34% state they would be open to ending the War and returning the Ukrainian territory currently under Russian occupation. Around 76% still support the Russian military and 56%, a slightly rising number, want to pursue peace talks with Ukraine.
If given the opportunity to cancel the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, 41% state they would, 43% said they would not.
Young people were the age group most against the war and pursuing of peace talks, while geographically those in Moscow were most supportive of the War.
www.euronews.com
Media relating to the October 29th Strike on a Russian Formation, the 1st Battalion of the 1251st Motorized Regiment, being struck by Ukrainian Fires resulting in reportedly upwards of 120 casualties according to Russian Sources. The Russian forces, apparently mostly volunteers, were grouped together for redeployment when struck.
threadreaderapp.com
Russian Fuel Train Struck by Ukrainian forces in Donetsk City in the DPR.
Putin's Speech regarding the attempted Jewish Pogrom in Dagestan which he blamed on Western intelligence agents also stated that the War in Ukraine is being prosecuted on behalf of the Palestinians and against those responsible for their oppression.
Rest in Peace Syrian War Veteran Major Zhigulev who has the dubious distinction of being the first Russian officer apparently killed in an ATACMS strike that occurred at the helicopter airbase at Berdyansk.
T-90M Tank Eliminated by a Ukrainian FPV Drone, Reportedly in the Kherson Area.
Two Russian soldiers were arrested by Russian authorities for the murder of all nine members of the Kapkan or Kapkanet family in the Donetsk Peoples Republic. Initial reports stated that the family of nine was killed by drunk Chechen soldiers who demanded to stay in their home but that may have been erroneous.
threadreaderapp.com
They also hypothesize towards the end of the article that the rounds were likely manufactured between 2000-2010 and so are not Soviet-era munitions but based on previous analysis of North Korean munitions, the quality could still be low, as sometimes the dud rate of North Korean ammunition did approach 25%.
Counting the Rounds: North Korean Ammo Transfers to Russia
North Korean Ammo Deliveries Exceed 500,000 Rounds: What It Means
frontelligence.substack.com
One of the things Russia might've offered in exchange for the munitions support from North Korea is assisting North Korea with the implementation of their recon satellite program.
N. Korea Sends Russia Artillery Rounds for Satellite Technical Advice – Seoul - The Moscow Times
North Korea has sent Russia over one million artillery shells to use in its war against Ukraine, with Pyongyang appearing to receive advice on the development of satellite technology in return, a South Korean lawmaker said Wednesday, citing information provided by Seoul's spy agency.
www.themoscowtimes.com
Recent polling in Russia reveals 70% of Russian respondents are open to ending the War with Ukraine if the Russians can keep the territory they conquered. However 34% state they would be open to ending the War and returning the Ukrainian territory currently under Russian occupation. Around 76% still support the Russian military and 56%, a slightly rising number, want to pursue peace talks with Ukraine.
If given the opportunity to cancel the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, 41% state they would, 43% said they would not.
Young people were the age group most against the war and pursuing of peace talks, while geographically those in Moscow were most supportive of the War.
Most Russians against ending Ukraine war if captured land returned
Support for the Kremlin's war aims endures, despite mounting losses and the continued economic fallout of the invasion, according to a poll.
www.euronews.com
Media relating to the October 29th Strike on a Russian Formation, the 1st Battalion of the 1251st Motorized Regiment, being struck by Ukrainian Fires resulting in reportedly upwards of 120 casualties according to Russian Sources. The Russian forces, apparently mostly volunteers, were grouped together for redeployment when struck.
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ As many as 120 volunteer Russian soldiers from the Chuvash Republic are said to have been killed or wounded in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike against a Russian military convoy. The local authorities appe...…
threadreaderapp.com
Russian Fuel Train Struck by Ukrainian forces in Donetsk City in the DPR.
Putin's Speech regarding the attempted Jewish Pogrom in Dagestan which he blamed on Western intelligence agents also stated that the War in Ukraine is being prosecuted on behalf of the Palestinians and against those responsible for their oppression.
Rest in Peace Syrian War Veteran Major Zhigulev who has the dubious distinction of being the first Russian officer apparently killed in an ATACMS strike that occurred at the helicopter airbase at Berdyansk.
T-90M Tank Eliminated by a Ukrainian FPV Drone, Reportedly in the Kherson Area.
Two Russian soldiers were arrested by Russian authorities for the murder of all nine members of the Kapkan or Kapkanet family in the Donetsk Peoples Republic. Initial reports stated that the family of nine was killed by drunk Chechen soldiers who demanded to stay in their home but that may have been erroneous.
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Two soldiers from the Russian Far East are reported to have been arrested over the massacre of a Ukrainian family of nine in Volnavakha, Donetsk region. The killings are claimed to have been carried...…
threadreaderapp.com
There wasn't much in Leopard Tank losses in the counteroffensive except in the initial offensive due to anti-tank mines and then recently where a number were struck by Russian loitering munition drones during daylight attacks by the new division that rotated in. And a Challenger that got bonked on the top by a Russian artillery round apparently.
Aldarion
Neoreactionary Monarchist
Sources I'm seeing have Ukraine losing 5-8 Leo's in the fight around Adviivka over the last 5 days.
Lost as in destroyed or damaged
Heard at least 5 complete losses, with more damaged to varying degrees, and heard about some Bradley's mission killed near one of them.
All of this was near Avdiivka(?).
Buba
A total creep
Tank losses always have been a grey area. Different armies in different times classify things differently.
In some - damaged but can be repaired outside Brigade/Division workshop - counts as destroyed, while in others counts as damaged. And so on and so forth.
I'd not get fixated on exact numbers, they'll always be fuzzy to some degree.
In some - damaged but can be repaired outside Brigade/Division workshop - counts as destroyed, while in others counts as damaged. And so on and so forth.
I'd not get fixated on exact numbers, they'll always be fuzzy to some degree.
These were numbers I was told by some armor/arty guys on a Discord server, and they seem to have a better bead on numbers than media group I've seen.
Carrot of Truth
War is Peace
Well they are Leopard 1 tanks which are so damn old I wouldn't be surprised if what would normally be minor damage turns them into scrap.
Aldarion
Neoreactionary Monarchist
It's not even so much about age as it is about design. As Zachowon said, they are basically light tanks. When Leopard 1 was being designed, belief was that no amount of armor would be enough to defeat antitank weapons, so the idea was to focus on mobility instead.
Yeah.
Ukrainian Journalist Reports the Battle of Avdiivka has had some close calls.
Forgot about this one, pre-WW2 GAZ-AA Trucks Appeared in Russian Service in the Battle of Avdiitas well.
M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle based on the Abrams platform seen in use by Ukrainian forces as undisclosed aid.
Breakdown graph by week of the alleged 300,000 Russian dead.
Scalpel Loitering Munitions Arriving in Service for the Russian military in Ukraine. Apparently even smaller then the Russian Lancet Loitering Munitions.
Forgot about this one, pre-WW2 GAZ-AA Trucks Appeared in Russian Service in the Battle of Avdiitas well.
M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle based on the Abrams platform seen in use by Ukrainian forces as undisclosed aid.
Breakdown graph by week of the alleged 300,000 Russian dead.
Scalpel Loitering Munitions Arriving in Service for the Russian military in Ukraine. Apparently even smaller then the Russian Lancet Loitering Munitions.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Three hundred thousand dead?
I’m hoping those number are wrong because if they aren’t that’s a lot of hapless sodding Mobiks thrown into the meat grinder.
Any sane country would have thrown the towel in by now.
I’m hoping those number are wrong because if they aren’t that’s a lot of hapless sodding Mobiks thrown into the meat grinder.
Any sane country would have thrown the towel in by now.