Israel is unsurprisingly behaving extremely disgracefully right now :
They have run out of fuel and food.A lot of forums are full of hopium, Like they keep saying the Russian forces north of Kiev are out of fuel food ect nevermind the fact that its an obvious massing of men and equipment to bring the hammer down on the capital because everyone knows thats going to be a hard fought battle. In the east the Ukrainian army is either disintegrating or in danger of being encircled, While the Ukrainians put up a harder fight than anyone expected the realities of their situation are starting to show.
They have run out of fuel and food.
Still doesn't mean the offensive is going to happen or not.
I think the Ukrainians will not let the Russians get a break in the city
I think it holds for a couple days, then collapses. The Ukrainians lack the tools needed to break out. Neither side has shown a willingness to fight to the death. They last a couple days, the Russians finish pinpointing all the important strong points and take them out, the rest of the defenders pack it in.They have run out of fuel and food.
Still doesn't mean the offensive is going to happen or not.
I think the Ukrainians will not let the Russians get a break in the city
I mean what actual evidence is there that they have run out of fuel and food? A few POW's here and there that have probably been tortured and will say whatever they think will make it stop?
I mean what actual evidence is there that they have run out of fuel and food? A few POW's here and there that have probably been tortured and will say whatever they think will make it stop?
Delusional. You seem to be mistaking China for a charity. China doesn't give away 10 figure sums for shits and giggles because Putin wants to play empire in Ukraine, China has plenty of own imperial ventures it would be more eager to sponsor. China would expect massive concessions from Russia in return, which Russia would be about as likely to give as it is to leave Ukraine alone.The sanctions are irrelevant, China will bankroll Putin and the Petrodollar will fall. In fact sanctions strengthen regimes as it leaves the people no choice but to stick with their leaders. Hence Iran still standing and still flipping the US off.
Again divorced from reality. Ukrainians in WW2 fought pretty much on all imaginable sides, because Soviets weren't exactly their friends.Ukrainians as in WW2 will largely put their heads down and go about their lives and look up to the old Babushkas who grew up in Soviet Times who in turn will tell them to cease fighting, and live with the new Regime. Its better than dying.
True enough, but I suspect China will have Russia pay quite nicely for whatever services it needs. The Russian central bank has supposedly gathered up to $600 billion in foreign currency reserves that I'm sure they will put to "good" use.Delusional. You seem to be mistaking China for a charity. China doesn't give away 10 figure sums for shits and giggles because Putin wants to play empire in Ukraine, China has plenty of own imperial ventures it would be more eager to sponsor. China would expect massive concessions from Russia in return, which Russia would be about as likely to give as it is to leave Ukraine alone.
Which i think is exactly what's behind China's cautious support now. Let Russia get itself into a position where it has no one else but China to make deals with... and then lets make deals.
And the whole point of that is that these deals will be very much not advantageous to Russia, these will be deals Russia would consider downright insulting 2 years ago.
-snip-
Yeah, overall, I'd say the invasion is overall a mistake on Russia's part. They'll get Ukraine, but basically restrengthened the EU and NATO, while shoving the EU back under the US. This, after about 20 years of efforts trying to destroy both (I'm not saying that Euroskeptics are russian agents, but obviously Russia doesn't like the EU/NATO and has made some efforts to damage it like Nordstream, etc).
Meanwhile, either through propaganda or reality, Russia's military has been quite successfully portrayed as incompetent. This could change with their pause and resupply, but their initial tactics were failures (in the sense they should be doing much better) and weird (as if they expected a quick win, sorta like the US thinking that we'd be welcomed as liberators).
I expect the outcome of this to be as follows:
Russia gets a puppet government in Ukraine, which either won't last or will have to be occupied, which Russia can ill afford.
Finland and maybe Sweden join NATO, completing the European NATO wall. NATO is now more unified, and more under America's control, than ever. A big fall in Euroskepticism and moves towards the EU (Le Pen is screwed, for example).
And that's the chief reason I think this is a long-term loss: Russia could have done nothing but sell gas and oil for the next 30-40 years while being a decent neighbor, and the EU would have shrunk and NATO would become a shell of itself. Instead, he gets a puppet Ukraine. But then again, seeing that far into the future is near impossible, so who knows?
China needs Russia's resources to keep its economy running and needs the support of Russia to counter the US. Its a mutual relationship. EU needs Russian gas and oil or their economies shut down.
Bulk of Ukrainians stayed home and let the Nazis and Soviets kill each other. They only picked sides under duress, returning home when said duress ended.
And it holds true now. Bulk of Ukrainians are trying to escape the fighting, the cream of the Army is being frittered away in local counter-attacks, and those left are mostly untrained civilians good for absorbing rounds while the trained troops maneuver.
When Putin wins, the resistance will be minor and snuffed out. The bulk of Ukrainians will live their lives the same way they always have, just paying their taxes to a different master. The extent of the help they give any resistance will be simply looking the other way and saying nothing.
Big nationalists, wearing nazi simbols and not a single Kolovrat in sight.
it’s really hilarious that the same liberals who will think that the RNC or CPAC stage or whatever it was was designed after an obscure Nazi symbol but show them a 4K picture of a Ukrainian chick wearing one of the most common and obvious ones and they will shut their eyes to it entirely. Also, Ukraine seems way more tolerant of the far right than Russia which is pretty cool.