Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[gral]

Back in August of 2022, Croatia donated a few old M-46 130mm early Soviet Era Howitzers to Ukraine... and the very next month, the Ukrainians launched their successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area.

Now Russian is apparently sending their own ancient 130mm M-46 Howitzers to the front!

Hmm. Wikipedia gives a 1946-1950 period for its design, not its production, which ran from 1951 to 1971 - there are armed forces which still use it. It seems reasonable to assume the Russians still have some 130mm ammunition at hand(whether the ammo is in good condition is another story, of course).

 

[Husky_Khan]

Hmm. Wikipedia gives a 1946-1950 period for its design, not its production, which ran from 1951 to 1971 - there are armed forces which still use it. It seems reasonable to assume the Russians still have some 130mm ammunition at hand(whether the ammo is in good condition is another story, of course).

Yeah they're actually pretty famous from the NVA use in the Vietnam War and other conflicts in the seventies. Back when Croatia donated theirs it was believed they'd have to buy more 130mm shells from Pakistan or the like since they still operate them and manufacture ammo for them supposedly.

 

[Husky_Khan]

A larger than typical prisoner exchange took place with reports of over 200+ Ukrainian prisoners being returned.



Unconfirmed Reports That Kuwait is Delivering 100 M-84AB Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine via Croatia. The M-84 was originally a Yugoslavian variant of the T-72 Tank. The AB is a specific Kuwaiti variant that was delivered to that country before the breakup of Yugoslavia interrupted the full delivery of vehicles.



United Arab Emirates Donates Fifty Ambulances to Ukraine.



Failed Ukrainian Drone Strike on a Refinery Located in Yaroslavl, seven hundred kilometers from the border.



Aftermath of a Ukrainian Drone Strike on a Russian Artillery Units Motor Pool in Donetsk



Netherlands to pledge 122 million Euros to aid Ukraine in purchasing artillery ammunition and strengthening its cyber defenses.

Netherlands boosts military aid to Ukraine by €122 million

The Netherlands will help Ukraine buy 155-mm artillery ammunition and strengthen the cyber defense.

euromaidanpress.com

Number of Russian Airbases Employing Decoys Now Has Spread due to the expanding reach of Ukrainian drones.

Thread by @bradyafr on Thread Reader App

@bradyafr: As Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities have grown, so has the number of decoys at Russian air bases involved in the invasion of Ukraine. This thread shows several of the decoys Russian forces have pa...…

threadreaderapp.com

Rest in Peace Ethan Hertwick, a US Marine Veteran and combat medic who was killed in fighting in Ukraine last December.

Marine veteran killed in Ukraine fought 12 Russians in last stand

Marine veteran Ethan Hunter Hertweck died on Dec. 8 on what was supposed to be his last mission in Ukraine before coming home.

taskandpurpose.com

 

[Marduk]

What are GLSDB? Ukraine gets 100-Mile HIMARS rounds boost from U.S.

Ukraine may receive the long-range precision weapons as early as Wednesday.

www.newsweek.com

Ukraine finally gets GLSDB.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Russian Tarantul II-class Corvette Ivanovets Sunk In Attack by Multiple Ukrainine Unmanned Surface Vessels in an attack off the Western coast of Crimea within a supposedly secured lake. An estimated twenty percent of the Black Seas Fleet, by tonnage, has supposedly been destroyed.





The Russian Belbek Airbase near Sevastopol Was Struck by Multiple Stormshadow Cruise Missiles. Reportedly a command post and communications post was destroyed and the commander of a fighter squadron, Alexander Tatarenko, was reportedly killed. Rest in Peace.



A fifty billion Euro financial aid package has been approved by all the member nations of the European Union for Ukraine.



Rest in Peace Diana Savita Wagner, a Thirty Six Year Old German Volunteer Medic who was killed in action recently by Russian Forces.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Another graphic showing the losses of the Russian Black Seas Fleet Up To This Point. Eleven of forty five vessels destroyed or seriously damaged.



Thirty Five Hundred Russian Officers Documented as Killed During the Special Military Operation.



Video of Russian Lancet Strikes on a Ukrainian Leleka Drone Team and a T-72 Tank. Allegations they sat on these videos until after the reported loss of the missile corvette Ivanovets for better press.



T-55 Tank In Service with the Elite Russian Naval Infantry.



Russian Civil Aviation Suffering Issues for Mysterious reasons. Production shortfalls and a week ago there civil aviation oopsies in one day.

 

[Buba]

The T-55 is carrying a gazeebo to protect from top-down drone attacks?

 

[Zachowon]

Easier to get running then ti build and maintain newer ones.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

What I find fascinating is Russia having such stuff in running condition ...

Think about the sheer number of these things that are probably in storage. I'm sure they've found some out of those thousands that require very little, relative, work to get them operational.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Covert Cabal did a video last fall estimating how many tanks of various types that Russia has in storage. It included just over 200 T-55's and he goes into some detail regarding their possible condition in his video.

Covert Cabal released an updated video counting Russian tank totals since their last video many months ago. Some insights he made was that the methodology he used in his video makes a rough estimate of Russia losting 57 tanks a month in this conflict since March while a source like Oryx documents the loss of 75 tanks a month through losses documented in various forms of media and reports since October of 2022. The numbers would match up almost perfectly if you also consider Russia might be building up a couple dozen new tanks per month.

According to his numbers Russia has 5450 Tanks in storage total with 3525 in "good" condition. He states this is a decline of about 400 tanks from April of 2023 to October of 2023 (though the satellite data can be weeks/months old in some cases in both respects so it could have declined even more) and nearly 1200 since a year ago.

He also breaks it down tanks by type from April to October though with even more chance of error:

T-55: 270 -> 218
T-62: 560 -> 362
T-62: 248 -> 250
T-72: 1841 -> 1735
T-80: 942 -> 910
T-90: 50 -> 50

So it's a lot of older tanks that are actually disappearing from Russian tank parks. Covert Cabal hypothesizes the reason older tanks are being put into service is due older tanks being simpler to refurbish and bring into service to send to Ukraine plus larger numbers of T-72's and T-80's are still supposed to be modernized as part of an ongoing program and the ones in the best condition were likely already being modernized or planned to be.

He also discusses how the vehicles might be overcounted due to the existence of things like engineering vehicles, as well as why it would be unlikely that there are large numbers of decoys being used to inflate numbers.

As for the particular variant of the T-55 in question.

 

[strunkenwhite]

It's sort of like the opposite of attrition: if you build ten thousand of the things and then abandon them in random places, a few of them will luckily still be in good condition even decades later.

Call it the squirrel strategy.

 

[Buba]

The use of T-55s as Infantry Tanks seems sensible to me. MTBs they are not.

 

[Husky_Khan]

It's sort of like the opposite of attrition: if you build ten thousand of the things and then abandon them in random places, a few of them will luckily still be in good condition even decades later.

Call it the squirrel strategy.

You can also use up whatever stockpiles of T-55 ammunition you have left for largely wasteful indirect fire support instead of utilizing more in demand 125mm tank ammunition for largely wasteful indirect fire support.

 

[Marduk]

Who knows how many hours of maintenance work were required to get it functional?

It might have been just a couple.

It might have been dozens or hundreds.

Those are little more than WW2 era tanks. A tractor mechanic can get them running, and man-hours are cheap in Russia, certainly when compared to nominally 5 digit USD priced electronic parts under sanctions now that the newer tanks need for some of their fancier systems, and maintenance wise are sometimes closer to a turboprop driven aircraft than WW2 tank.

The use of T-55s as Infantry Tanks seems sensible to me. MTBs they are not.

There's a reason no one really uses those outside of specialist high mobility units that really need their tanks light. If you want to do it well, it costs as much as a MBT, see the new US not-tank.

Mobile Protected Firepower - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It weights slightly more than a T-55, has better gun and probably somewhat better protection, and vastly superior fire control, sensors, comms and other electronics, which in turn make it cost more than a brand new T-90.

You can also use up whatever stockpiles of T-55 ammunition you have left for largely wasteful indirect fire support instead of utilizing more in demand 125mm tank ammunition for largely wasteful indirect fire support.

If their industry wasn't stretched to its limit, they could probably use the chassis to make an actual SPG out of it, even if they need to use the same, not really great for artillery work 100mm ammo, with large, SPG style turret giving the gun better elevation, more precise gun laying, specialized indirect fire control gear, and more room for loaders to work faster, which would make it into somewhat useful light SPG.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Covert Cabal did a video on how many artillery pieces, towed and self propelled, Russia may still have in storage. And I was legitimately surprised at how much its apparently been depleted, especially in regards to the towed howitzers though upon reflection it certainly makes sense considering the current state of the conflict.



He cooperated with an account named High Marsed on Twitter for this, like his recent previous videos as well. He hypothesizes in the thread that Russia might be having a shortage of 122mm artillery ammuntion which is why large numbers of the more modern 122mm artillery platforms remain in storage. He also comments that while Russia doesn't actively operate 130mm artillery, Iran and North Korea could supply Russia with that ammunition type.

What is most important is that he couldn't find the location of the 40 M1931 B4 Towed Howitzers Russia reportedly has in storage.

Thread by @HighMarsed on Thread Reader App

@HighMarsed: 1/ @CoverCabal and I have counted and identified both SPGs and towed artillery at russian storage bases and you can find our numbers in this thread or on Youtube. I have also added some interesting...…

threadreaderapp.com

Lithuanian Army Delivery of Munitions. Anti-Armor Rockets and Detonation Systems.

Lithuania delivers another batch of military aid to Ukraine

Lithuania has delivered another batch of military assistance to Ukraine, including remote detonation systems and ammunition for anti-tank grenade launchers. Source: Lithuania's Defence Ministry, as reported by European Pravda Details: The package included over a thousand rounds of ammunition for...

news.yahoo.com

Russia denounces Ecuadors' alleged violation of terms of use of Soviet/Russian Equipment after Ecuador states it'll deliver $200 million dollars worth of 'scrap metal' to the United States in exchange for shinier bits of American wonderwaffe.

Russia Outraged by Biden’s Ecuadorian ‘Ringtausch’ Workaround to Help Ukraine

Washington’s “circular swap” scheme - where new weapons are provided to replace a nation’s old weapons, if it gives them to Ukraine – hasn’t gone down well in the Kremlin.

www.kyivpost.com

Long Media Filled Thread Detailing Multiple Russian Vehicle Losses During an Attack near Avdiivka late last December. It apparently included a tank on tank collision.



The Peoples Republic of Canadia is apparently investigating whether it can send thousands of 70mm Rockets to Ukraine That Are Currently Sitting Unused in Storage and of Unknown Quality.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Tucker Carlson being spotted in Moscow sparks frenzied speculation

Carlson has previously said the U.S. government blocked his attempts to interview Russian President Vladimir Putin.

www.newsweek.com

Tucker Carlson has allegedly been seen in Moscow attending a ballet at the Bolshoi.

 

[Zachowon]

Yes...go to Russia...and basically destroy any attempt to promote the right as not being Russian plants.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Recent Equipment Pledged and Delivered to Ukraine. Some was posted on earlier but Germany is sending them Sea King Helicopters in the future. Also two more French MLRS systems and boats... from Canada!



Details on an Estonian Military Aid Package Dispatched to Ukraine.



Another Russian T-55 Destroyed in Combat! This one might've not been a tank-based VBIED unlike some previous losses however.



Naalsio has updated documented losses in the ongoing Battle of Avdiivka.



And the losses in the Krynky/Kherson Area along the Dnieper River.

 

[Tiamat]

"Russian soldier abandoned by fleeing comrades on armored vehicle leaving him stranded in Donetsk"





Either these guys were seriously spooked by something and were desperate to get the hell out of there...or they just didn't give a damn. I also couldn't help but notice at least a few of those guys, including the one trying to escape were either missing or discarded their weapons.

Honestly, this is pretty sad to watch. To quote one poster, "This is not a glorious army winning on the battle field, it's a losing army desperately struggling to survive."

 

[Lord Sovereign]

"Russian soldier abandoned by fleeing comrades on armored vehicle leaving him stranded in Donetsk"





Either these guys were seriously spooked by something and were desperate to get the hell out of there...or they just didn't give a damn. I also couldn't help but notice at least a few of those guys, including the one trying to escape were either missing or discarded their weapons.

Honestly, this is pretty sad to watch. To quote one poster, "This is not a glorious army winning on the battle field, it's a losing army desperately struggling to survive."

Even worse, remember that most of these lads are mobiks now. They are hapless conscripts, ripped from their homes, and sent to die in their tens of thousands for Putin’s ego.

Poor bastards.