Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[Husky_Khan]

Shaping up to look like a bad day for the Russian Air Force. Originally an A-50 Electronic Warfare Plane was reportedly downed over the Sea of Azov or even near Mariupol but turns out it was likely downed deeper within Russia proper.





Now there are rumors/reports a second plane, an Il-22 was also shot down.

Huh while I was posting, another Russian Su-34 may have crashed near Kherson.





I think it makes it something like... ten major Russian aircraft supposedly lost thanks to this Special Military Operation in probably just as many days.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Final tally of documented Heavy Equipment Losses in the Battle of Avdiivka now that it has been captured by the Russians (unless new losses are uncovered from that time period).



Ukraine to spend 245 million pounds in this coming year on delivering artillery munitions to Ukraine.

UK to boost Ukraine's artillery reserves with £245 million munitions package

The UK will spend £245 million throughout the next year to procure and invigorate supply chains to produce urgently needed artillery ammunition for Ukraine.

www.gov.uk

Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk, Russia Came Under Attack from Ukrainian Kamikaze Drones. Lipetsk is more than 250 kilometers away from Ukraine, located almost halfway between there and Moscow. It's apparently a significant industrial site for domestic steel production.





Speculation on how many A-50U Electronic Warfare Craft that Russia may have in service now with recent losses, and how many could be used in Ukraine (since they have to cover other parts of Russia as well).



Attempt at hypothesizing what Romania may have donated to Ukraine from its fifteen aid packages sent anonymous since the beginning of the Special Military Operation. Since Romania doesn't disclose much of their military aid specifically, much of it is inferred such as how Romania recently purchased a few dozen Abrams tanks or two hundred missiles for their Patriot systems. Thus the poster infers that an announcement of delivery of T-72 tanks might've been around thirty or more of them. And he goes into detail with sources in the responses deeper in the thread.

Some of the things not specifically mentioned in the initial posts is playing host to part of Ukraine's F-16 program, that Romanian military factories are producing 35mm ammunition for Gepards,

 

[Husky_Khan]

First Abrams Lost in the War in Ukraine. Red Effect Summarized the relevant media released by the Russians regarding it in a short video.



Also in the likely Avdiivka Area, a Swedish supplied Archer Self Propelled Gun was Struck by a Lancet Drone, one of the first documneted losses of that type of weapon platform.



These losses coincide with further Russian Advances beyond the Avdiivka Area.



First documented loss of a NASAMs Surface to Air Missile Launcher. It was reportedly eliminated by a Tornado-G MLRS strike some fifty or more kilometers behind the frontlines in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine is reported to have anywhere between twenty and fifty of these individual launchers in service.



Perun interviewed Professor Justin Bronk of RUSI to discuss the changes in the Air War in Ukraine from 2022 to 2023. Some of the things discussed was the use of KITs to transform Russian Dumb Bombs into "more" accurate glide bombs and its initial then diminishing effect due to the expansion of the effective range of Ukrainian Air Defense to the point the Russians were launching glide bombs from fifty kilometers away instead of twenty initially. Related to that they discussed Patriot "Ambush" tactics and that if the Russians did shoot down two of their own A-50s that's probably far worse then the Ukrainians managing to do so as well as why the A-10 shouldn't be sent to Ukraine among other topics.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Russians also have a habit of releasing footage and pictures of destroyed or struck equipment in bundles after perceived setbacks which they saved up. They did it after the USV Strikes on their boats recently IIRC.

 

[Jormungandr]

As I said before, any tank/all tank class/variants in use in the world are vulnerable to arty, modern ATGMs, top attack weapons of all kinds, etc.
So, no surprise.
In a war that has a massive saturation of detection systems, as soon as the Abrams is deployed, is detected, attacked, and destroyed.
Like the Leo 2 and Chall 2 before.
And the same happened to all variants of Russian/Soviet tanks.
Is not a surprise, nor a mystery. Is just war. A high-intensity war with modern weapons from both sides.

This is not the Iraq War, going against a very incompetent adversary with outdated weapons.

IIRC to date, only two Challenger 2's have been lost; one was from friendly fire, where one Chally blew up another, and the other was in Ukraine under Ukrainian control.

We'll likely be seeing a few more get destroyed, same with Leos and Abrams, in the future, but you gotta admit the track records for these tanks are pretty good compared to Russian tanks (and, notably, there aren't crippling design flaws seen in Western tanks as there are in Russian ones, such as Exploding Turret Syndrome).

 

[Husky_Khan]

President Zelensky stated that Ukraine has suffered 31,000 dead in the two years since this conflict started and also stated Russia has suffered 180,000 killed. He declined to cite the number of wounded, missing or prisoners.

Zelenskiy Says 31,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Killed Since Start Of Russia's Full-Scale Invasion

In his first official acknowledgment of the country's combat losses, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that 31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. Zelenskiy said he would not discuss the number of wounded, citing security reasons.

www.rferl.org

For its part, Mediazone has estimated Russia has suffered a minimum of 75,000+ dead, or 120 dead a day with little sign of the losses slowing down.

At least 75,000 dead Russian soldiers Meduza calculates that Moscow loses 120 men per day in Ukraine, and the rate isn’t slowing after two years of war — Meduza

Throughout two years of invasion, troop losses have been one of the greatest taboo subjects in Russia. Discussing how many men Moscow has sent to die in Ukraine is forbidden even among the war’s most vocal supporters. For example, in February 2024, following harassment by propagandists in pundit...

meduza.io

Ukraine claims downing two more Su-34 Jets Today. If true that means more than ten Russian airplanes lost in this Special Military Operation in the last ten days.



Russian Recon Drone Briefly Followed the armored motorcade of the visiting German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, whilst she was visiting the Mykolaiv Oblast.

Russian drone chased German Foreign Minister’s motorcade in Mykolaiv Oblast

The threat of a Russian strike forced German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to call off her visit to Mykolaiv Oblast on Sunday.

www.pravda.com.ua

First US Supplied M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle to be Reportedly Damaged in the Ukraine War. The M1150 is an M1 Abrams based platform and this vehicle was an undisclosed part of the aid to Ukraine earlier.

Russian soldiers hit Ukraine's US-supplied M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle for the first time | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army

Russian soldiers hit Ukraine's US-supplied M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle for the first time

www.armyrecognition.com

Fifty Americans have been killed whilst volunteering for Ukrainian service.

50 Americans have died in Ukraine since the Russian invasion

At least 50 U.S. citizens have died in Ukraine since the Russians invaded in February 2022. Many came to fight. Others came to help civilians.

taskandpurpose.com

European Union to deliver Ukraine 170,000 artillery shells by the end of March.

EU to send almost 170,000 shells to Ukraine by end of March - Kuleba

The European Union intends to deliver almost 170,000 artillery rounds to Ukraine by the end of March and is working on further increasing the volume of supplies. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

Ukraine to received 200 Brimstone Anti-Tank Missiles from the United Kingdom as part of its latest military aid package.

UK sends additional 200 Brimstone anti-tank missiles to Ukraine | Defense News February 2024 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2024 | Archive News year

UK sends additional 200 Brimstone anti-tank missiles to Ukraine

www.armyrecognition.com

Israel's Ambassador to Ukraine, Gilad Erdan, made a speech condemning Russia and their ongoing alliance with Hamas and other Palestinian Islamist and Communist groups, the Houthis, as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran before stating Israel will be providing Ukraine Early Warning Systems.

For the past two years, Israel has stood by the Ukrainian people both in aid on the ground and in support here at the UN. This is the moral thing to do especially when we know what invasion and aggression mean, an attack on our cities and exposing our citizens to the indiscriminate firing of missiles. Two years ago, Russia, in violation of its neighbor's sovereignty, invaded Ukraine and caused the loss of human life. 143 days ago, the murderous terrorist organization Hamas, in complete violation of international law, violated our sovereignty, invaded Israel and carried out murder, rape and destruction of everything in its path. Ukraine and Israel are today fighting a war for their future and existence. The forces that oppose us do not only have military power at their disposal, but they have another means: they have turned the UN and its mechanisms into weapons against freedom and liberty. This is what we will become of the UN! The Security Council is paralyzed and cannot defend an invading sovereign state or even condemn it. The audacity of those here at the UN who invaded the territory of others to preach to the State of Israel about obeying international law proves more than anything how the UN has become a destructive institution. This week Russia is hosting a delegation from Hamas - the same ones who are responsible for murdering babies, raping women and burning families alive. And this is not the first time. Moscow is one of the only places where Hamas and the Houthis receive a red carpet. While we gather here and invest in talk instead of action, an alliance is forged that the international community remains powerless against: the axis connecting the regime in Iran, and the Assad regime together with North Korea and Venezuela is deepening. And Russia is strengthening its ties with them. This while the free world remains divided. Don't you see the danger to our values? Wake up!'

 

[Husky_Khan]

Details on the cooperation between North Korea and Russia. In exchange for the estimated 6700 cargo containers worth of munitions Russia will supply North Korea food, raw materials, technical parts for weapons production and a luxury limousine as a bonus gift.



Germany Reportedly Considering Sending Twenty More Eurocopter EC275 Caracal Helicopters to Ukraine on top of the Five Previously Delivered back in November of 2023.



Netherlands Purchasing Nine DITA Self Propelled Guns from the Czech Republic for Ukrainian Use.



Four Months After the Fact, US Officials Reportedly Considering Using the Remaining $4.2 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority to Send More Military Aid to Ukraine.



Unconfirmed Report that HIMARS fires struck another assembly of Russian troops, this time of Naval Infantry Personnel in the Donetsk Oblast of the 155th Marine Brigade who were in formation for an awards ceremony. Reportedly nineteen personnel were killed including at least three officers and at least a dozen wounded.

 

[Poe]

Ukraine expecting big losses this summer if aid continues to stall

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian officials are reportedly concerned about the possibility of significant Russian territorial gains in summer 2024 in the event of continued delays in Western security assistance. Bloomberg reported that internal Ukrainian assessments state that Russian advances along the frontline could gain significant momentum by summer 2024 unless Ukraine's partners increase provisions of artillery ammunition.[1] Bloomberg reported that sources close to Ukrainian leadership stated that Ukraine expects Russian forces to decide between continuing their current focus on gradual tactical advances and preparing for a larger breakthrough attempt in summer 2024 depending on the results of current Russian offensive operations.[2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 25 that Russian forces are preparing for a new offensive effort that will start in late May or summer 2024.[3] Russian forces are currently trying to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and are attempting to push as far as possible in the area before Ukrainian forces establish harder-to-penetrate defensive lines.[4] Russian forces may determine to adjust future offensive operations based on the level of success they have in attacking subsequent Ukrainian defensive lines west and northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian defenses in the Avdiivka area may impact Russian perceptions of the wider state of Ukraine's defense along the frontline. Russian forces are also conducting a multi-axis offensive operation along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but have not made any recent significant gains in the area, and the relative success or failure of that effort could similarly influence how the Russian military command views Russian prospects for operationally significant advances.[5] The Russian ability to make operationally significant advances is still largely dependent on the level of Western support for Ukraine, however, as well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have proven that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts.[6]

Ukraine Sees Risk of Russia Breaking Through Defenses by Summer

Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russian advances could gain significant momentum by the summer unless their allies can increase the supply of ammunition, according to a person familiar with their analysis.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Zachowon]

I mean yeah, western aid is required.
Just like eastern aid is required for Russia

 

[Bacle]

I'd say that NK needs to start suffering some 'mysterious fires' at it's artillery plants and same with Iran.

 

[Marduk]

Here's a little spoken about secret of recent Russian advances:

Russians are sending their air force into the fight to bomb fortifications. Not because they have figured out how to suppress air defenses properly, but because they decided to throw caution to the wind and just take the attrition.
This is why stuff like 3 Su-34's being shot down in one day happens now, and over last 2 weeks average a loss per day.
Either it's more pre-election show, or Russians are expecting western aircraft with AMRAAM to show up near the frontline within 2-6 months, which will turn such tactics from dangerously unsustainable to semi-suicidal.
And that's with their newest, hottest bombers, already lost around a fifth of the pre-war Su-34 fleet, if they start scrounging older planes for this job losses will get only worse.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Anyways this article came out today in Newsweek regarding the high quality of North Korean artillery ammunition.

"Today, if we take the available statistical data, the Russians have already imported 1.5 million rounds of ammunition from the DPRK," Skibitsky said, referring to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, also known as North Korea. "But these munitions are from the 70s and 80s. Half of them do not function, and the rest require either restoration or inspection before use," the GUR official said, citing Ukraine's latest assessment. Kim Jong Un benefits by "giving away" old munitions while demanding an increase in production in North Korea's own ammunition plants, according to Skibitsky.

Also talked about the missiles currently being fired at Ukraine from Russia were manufactured back in the Autumn and so the turnover rate from assembly line to use is rather short.

Half of Russia's North Korea-made artillery shells don't work: Ukraine

Russia is estimated to have received more than a million shells of various calibers from Kim Jong Un's regime.

www.newsweek.com

Ukrainian Pravda offering details on latest military aid package from the wetlands of the Netherlands. It apparently includes RHIB's and patrol boats, like the CB90. They are also taking part in the Czech managed operation of acquiring 800,000 artillery shells from outside of the EU to send to Ukraine in "the short term."

Boats and financial assistance: Netherlands allocates military aid package for Ukraine

The Dutch government has allocated a new military aid package to Ukraine and will also finance the purchase of artillery shells found by Czechia.

www.pravda.com.ua

Related to the ongoing project to deliver outside of EU artillery ammunition to Ukraine is doing the same with Soviet/Russian air defense missiles found abroad.



President Zelensky of Ukraine met with Maia Sandu of Moldova to discuss recent developments in the unrecognized Republic of Transnistria.

Zelenskyy talks to President of Moldova about events in Transnistria

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, met with his Moldovan counterpart Maia Sandu on the sidelines of the Ukraine-South-East Europe summit, which was held in Tirana, the capital of Albania, on 28 February.

www.pravda.com.ua

Combat Footage Released by Ukraine of a Bradley IFV and FPV Drones Engaging Russian Mechanized Infantry west of Avdiivka.



Russia Announces in the wake of losing two A-50 AEW to "Friendly Fire" in the past month, they will restart production on the A-50 which has been out of production for about twenty five years. Previously it was rumored this wouldn't impair Russian operations because the brand new A-100 AEW would be coming into service.



Rest in Peace Svetoslav Slavkov, notably the first Bulgarian volunteer who was killed whilst in service with the Ukrainian military.



Large numbers of Russians found 'sleeping' outside of Avdiivka by drone footage reportedly. Rest in Peace.

 

[Bacle]

Oh FFS Germany.

 

[Zachowon]

This is why intel sharing is an issue with ither nations

 

[Husky_Khan]

Ukrainian sources report two Russian Su-34 Aircraft Downed during Operations in Eastern Ukraine. One near Mariupol which is both being supported and challenged by pro-Russian accounts and another



Abrams Tank Likely Immobilized by a Mine in the Avdiivka Area and then Abandoned.



Ukrainian Bradley IFV Reportedly Survives two ATGM Hits Largely Intact.



A British Company Known as Cook Defence Has Been Contracted to Manufacture Spare Parts for Soviet-era vehicles like those of the MTLB, BMP and T-72 family.



North Korean Arms Shipments Via Actual Maritime Shipping Has Been Suspended. Some are alleging its due to North Korean munitions production problems.

Russian ship rejoins North Korea weapons trade, only for operation to go on hold | NK PRO

This is the second article in a two-part series analyzing major changes to alleged North Korea-Russia maritime arms trade in the first two months of 2024. Part one can be found here. A Russian cargo ship recently rejoined an alleged weapons shipping operation with North Korea after a three-month...

www.nknews.org

About twenty Indian nationals were reportedly coerced into serving as "volunteers" in the Russian military after going to the country with the lure of public service jobs in Russia. It's believed they are currently working as "support staff" in the Russian military, whatever that means.

Anxious Indian families await safe return of their kin caught in Russia-Ukraine conflict

Families accuse agents of tricking their sons into fighting for Russian Army by promising good pay and benefits as a 'government helper' - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Peruns Weekly Video Covers the Prospects of a Long War Between Russia and Ukraine including addressing the big question of who is "winning" as well as what he believes were the different phases in the conflict, war production and the economies of the countries involved, and force quality and maintenance despite the losses incurred so far.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Explosions at the Kerch Bridge Reported. Traffic impacted.



Naalsio Will Continue Updating the Battle of Avdiivka Losses, Now Counting the Losses that are found in the wake of the capture of that City and in the region directly West of the City.

https://twittter.com/naalsio26/status/1764449040987521245?s=20

Russian Offensive Continues West of Avdiivka In Spite of Vehicle Losses.



Also.exploding but perhaps less dramatically was a Railroad Bridge far deeper within Russia, potentially due to sabotage.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Looks like Ukrainian USV style drones may have sunk another Russian Warship, the Sergey Kotov, classified as a large patrol boat or missile Corvette which is capable of firing Kalibr missiles. Or was anyways.







The Project 22160 Series of vessels only launched into active service starting in 2018 with this particular boat having only been commissioned in July of 2022 and struck in an earlier USV attack back in September of 2023.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Alleged uptick and upward trend in Russian casualties due to their recent offensives this Winter, resulting in hundreds of KIA per week.



French continue to float the idea of sending NATO troops in Ukraine to assist Ukraine in support operations including training them in country as well as demining.



Pantsir Missile System Suffers a Roll Over Whilst Driving Through Crimea. Suspect is likely poor tire quality... still.



Kidnapping and executions in Russian-occupied Melitopol of both wrong thinkers and suspected partisans.



A helicopter might've gone down with the Sergey Kotov missile corvette as well due to the Ukrainian Magura-V USV Drone Attack.



Article on Ksenia Karelina, a Russian-American ex-ballerina currently held in Russian prison and facing a potential lfie sentence for treason due to her crime of allegedly donating $51 dollars to a Ukrainian charity whilst living in America. She returned to Russia to visit an elderly relative when Russians arrested her for 'hooliganism' due to swearing in public before deciding treason was a more appropriate charge.

US ballerina reveals inhumane conditions in Russian prison: Shower once a week, lights stay on 24/7

Ksenia Karelina, 32, has penned a moving letter to her boyfriend revealing the harsh conditions in which she is being held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, while facing a charge of treason.

nypost.com

 

[Husky_Khan]

Oh just saw this too, first HIMARS reportedly destroyed.

 

[LordsFire]

While it's impressive how long the Ukrainians managed to go without losing any of them, as the war ground on, losing at least some became almost statistically certain.