Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[Arlos]

Anyways, here’s hoping no one actually start WW3 over this, since some people seems to really want to get it started, and Zelensky seems to be angling for it.
Also heard Eastern Ukraine army is about to launch a counteroffensive around Kharkov, to try and break the encirclement before it come to fruition, not sure how true that is if it actually leaked outside tough.

 

[Agent23]

2nd post because I can put in only 5 media links.


Meanwhile, in Melitropol:

 

[LTR]

More commentary heavy posts and the recent lovers spat gently pruned off with a meat cleaver and kicked off into the Don Bass thread so it won't take over discussion over the next five pages.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Unverified Twitter Updates

Protests in the Russian occupied cities of Melitopol and Kherson.



Reported video of a Russian Mi-24 Helicopter Getting Shot Down



Ukrainian Medieval Armor YouTubers and Content Creators Making Steel Barricades and Obstructions



Rob Lee postulating that foreign volunteers fighting for Ukraine against Russian Forces may not lead to a drastic escalation since the precedent set by the Trump Administration didn't lead to an escalation after a failed Russia Wagner Group assault on a US/SDF Base in Syria several years ago that led to many Russian deaths.



Reportedly Russian air losses in the past day or so.

 

[Agent23]

Unverified Twitter Updates

Protests in the Russian occupied cities of Melitopol and Kherson.



Reported video of a Russian Mi-24 Helicopter Getting Shot Down



Ukrainian Medieval Armor YouTubers and Content Creators Making Steel Barricades and Obstructions



Rob Lee postulating that foreign volunteers fighting for Ukraine against Russian Forces may not lead to a drastic escalation since the precedent set by the Trump Administration didn't lead to an escalation after a failed Russia Wagner Group assault on a US/SDF Base in Syria several years ago that led to many Russian deaths.



Reportedly Russian air losses in the past day or so.

Lol, look at the evil Russian occupiers, banning protests, the waving of national flags and using force to stop the protests... 😂
Intel Slava Z
Intel Slava Z

Secret weapon of Slavic electioneering deployed, pro-Russian super-majority guaranteed:
Intel Slava Z

 

[Agent23]

Legendary economist Steve Hanke (Senior member of Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers) explains the so-called Afghanistan effect as well as the level to which the EU and the EV industry are dependent on Russia, more inflation coming our way.
Sanctions on Russia are 'for losers'; chances of Fed tightening just tanked.


UPDATE: More than 1.4 million people have left Ukraine.
Hope Poles are OK with the flood.

 

[Chiron]

In fairness, it's not like there hasn't been heaping helpings of it from the other side (both Ukraine and more broadly NATO/Europe/US) as well over this whole shitshow of a catastrophe.

I mean, he and the Russian propaganda remain more likely to be right in that Ukraine is doomed and it's all over but the shooting, death and suffering of civilians, and warcrimes (on both sides), but that's not a strong endorsement of the Russian military even in the best-case where they gained a victory over (another) corrupt, former-Soviet, border-state with endemic corruption issues and a military the fraction of the size or scope of Russia's by ingenious sacrificial tactics...And it's the opposite of an endorsement when the fanciful genius sacrificial tactics explanation is tossed-aside for the more likely occurence of Russia's military suffering from corruption itself, poor organization and leadership, and having poor performance in the field when encountering actual resistance at anything resembling a scale that the likes of Chechnya or Georgia were incapable of and that can't be erased from existence by the expedient of mass MLRS barrages of the offending grid-square because Ukraine has too many fuckin' grid squares.

In some ways, it's kind of a relief, really.
We int he US thought our Afghanistan fuckuppery in military leadership and organization was somehow a unique thing. Russia's giving us a demonstration that we're very much not alone in the department of having an absolute shitfest of a corrupt and incompetent set of moldering political appointees in charge of our military (and, hell, both probably operating more with military spending outlays or their future career/wealth prospects in mind than effectiveness).

Russia's base planning assumptions are everyone of their soldiers is incompetent and drunk. Since everyone is incompetent and drunk, you need to adjust the force ratios and go in with a broad plan an idiot can follow and which makes all the flaws irrelevant.

And if someone demonstrates they are actually sober, competent, and a fighter, he gets promoted and reinforced while the truly incompetents and drunks stop bullets and no longer have to be paid.

At the end of the day, they will still be the ones partying in Ukrainian Bases, drinking the Ukrainians Vodka, and screwing their mistresses

The War in Ukraine

Krasnyi Lyman has fallen while Izium holds. Suspect the battle of Sloviansk to commence soon.

Chernihiv pocket is in the process of reduction. Suspect the Russian General Staff wants it and Nizhyn reduced first before a serious push is made to take Kyiv or bypass it via a river crossing at Ukrainka just to the south.

Ukraine is still unable to generate a strong enough counter-attack to either punch open escape corridors for the trapped units at Chernihiv or Nizhyn or extract their forces from the Donbas and Kharkiv Fronts.



Captured Ukrainian Base near Kherson. A clear indication of why Ukraine is so far unable to do more than local counter-attacks.

I suspect once the Russians make their records open, it will turn out the Ukrainians suffered fatal damage to their logistical nodes in the opening attacks and simply were not able to do more than piecemeal arming of reservists and resort to desperation tactics of just handing out AKs to untrained civilians.

But for the most part, Russia remains committed to fighting the real war on the battlefield and not on Twitter.



Respect for Petro raises 10 points. Also showcases that most of the damage is coming from Soviet base weaponry and not Western Weapons which are a drop in the bucket.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Zelenski had to know asking NATO to establish a no-fly-zone and risk directly attacking Russian forces was not going to happen.

Wagner teams and Chechen special forces sent to assassinate Zelenski were thwarted by anti-war forces in the FSB.


If the FSB has anti-war elements powerful enough to thwart assassination attempts on Zelenski, then Moscow is nowhere near united in backing this escalation of the conflict.

The claim that the FSB is tipping off Ukraine about assassination attempts against Zelensky is highly dubious.

Ukraine loses nothing by spouting it, and it's impossible to credibly prove/disprove.

I agree with @Emperor Tippy.
The ukie clown prince probably has a good third of the Ukie SOF protecting him and other bigwigs at all times.

That's hard to get through, even for Navy Seals and Green Berets.

Like the 200 “Donald Trump ranted to his inner circle about the White House carpet according to our insiders” articles that appeared in cnn over the years.

Most likely

2nd post because I can put in only 5 media links.


Meanwhile, in Melitropol:

Hmmm . . .



Kind of got ninja'd by @Chiron, but the Ukrainians seem to be fleeing faster than the Germans after Bagration. While leaving behind all their stuff intact.

The Russian stuff left behind by their crews had their fuel tanks punctured from the bottom and other forms of sabotage.

 

[Batrix2070]

UPDATE: More than 1.4 million people have left Ukraine.
Hope Poles are OK with the flood.

I can say that we are managing, although on Polish Twitter it was noted that among Ukrainian refugees there are too many so-called "students" more than official statistics say, and all of them strangely enough look Arab.
I can tell you one thing, motherfuckers seize the opportunity.


Skip ahead to 1:20, this Ukrainian shows a video from Ukraine as "refugees" occupy a train for women and children.




You can see it better here. Apparently, some of those in Belarus did not leave and lived to see the transition to Poland.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Protestor reportedly shot and wounded by Russian forces in the Donbass region.



Reportedly one of several Russian pilots/aircrew captured today was a veteran of the Syrian Civil War and even photographed with Assad. (reply within thread shows graphic injury on pilot as he's questioned)



Claimed capture by Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces near Kharkov.

Hmmm . . .



Kind of got ninja'd by @Chiron, but the Ukrainians seem to be fleeing faster than the Germans after Bagration. While leaving behind all their stuff intact.

Some sort of depot it appears. The tanks seem to be quite a prize, dunno about the BTR-60's. A few of them have been documented as "captured" now but some were just hanging out in a garage or some warehouse.



And Kherson reportedly fell on the first day of fighting. It turned out to be exaggerated and didn't fall until over a week later so... any predictions or comparisons on that vein seem imprecise at this juncture.

Regardless a purported translation of the RT.com segment.

Sauce

 

[Chiron]

Odessa's fall means US Chip Manufacturing is Kaput

More reason to stay out of the conflict and crack down on the Billionaire Class here at home by seizing their assets and re-industrializing with the seized assets if they don't play ball.



Russians back in Irpin. As expected, UkA was unable to generate enough combat power to do more than open an escape corridor for a time.



Ukrainian retaliatory strike defeated.



Ukraine's tank factory taken out.

 

[Sailor.X]

Russia has a very bad Military equipment problem.

 

[Agent23]

Russia has a very bad Military equipment problem.

I love it how Sarg and Arch cover stuff they understand, e.g. western politics, video games, and other aspects of pup culture, but tbh I am less willing to trust them on anything like Real World warfare and Russian military equipment.

That said, it is plausible that some units were slacking off, Russia did this very, very haphazardly and out of the blue, but Russia's "failures" and losses imho have been puffed up out of proportion.

This does kinda-sorta validate my law about Eastern European inventory equipment. 😂

Oh, and btw I think that cartoon parody was Serbian.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

I don't understand why the Soviets neglected their NCO's so badly when literally almost every successful army in recorded history had a strong NCO tradition even Germany punched way above its weight thanks to that.

 

[Chiron]

I don't understand why the Soviets neglected their NCO's so badly when literally almost every successful army in recorded history had a strong NCO tradition even Germany punched way above its weight thanks to that.

Because they are organized for mass warfare at the operational level. What use having large numbers of highly trained NCOs in units that get pasted by a nuke? Nay better to simply assume all your men are incompetent and drunk, and weaponize the incompetence against your enemy so that they perceive tactical successes and fall into an operational encirclement.

In the long run fewer people wind up dying and the campaign doesn't depend on someone not fucking up their end because its assumed there will be multiple fuckups and the second echelon will deal with those so the OMGs can then move in.



First I hear Kramatorsk encircled. Would indicate a major breach of UkA defenses in Donbas.



This town is on the Donets to the North and East of Kharkiv and is a subsidary supply route compared to the E105 freeway. No date as to when it occurred as the town is behind Russian Lines.



After this, expect Russia to no longer honor IP laws or its debts abroad.



Not a good look.

 

[Agent23]

Because they are organized for mass warfare at the operational level. What use having large numbers of highly trained NCOs in units that get pasted by a nuke? Nay better to simply assume all your men are incompetent and drunk, and weaponize the incompetence against your enemy so that they perceive tactical successes and fall into an operational encirclement.

In the long run fewer people wind up dying and the campaign doesn't depend on someone not fucking up their end because its assumed there will be multiple fuckups and the second echelon will deal with those so the OMGs can then move in.



First I hear Kramatorsk encircled. Would indicate a major breach of UkA defenses in Donbas.



This town is on the Donets to the North and East of Kharkiv and is a subsidary supply route compared to the E105 freeway. No date as to when it occurred as the town is behind Russian Lines.



After this, expect Russia to no longer honor IP laws or its debts abroad.



Not a good look.

I am pretty sure that Intel Slava Z mentioned Kramatorsk a few times, check them out on telegram.

As to the police escorting people out of Kharkov, well allegedly Arsen Avakov was there, he still has some alleged control over some of the Nazi militias and he was the former minister of internal affairs.
He might be evacuating his goons and heading over to Kiev for a last stand, or running off to Lovov to set up there.

Also, if better connected people are fleeing then perhaps there might be some huge last stand/false flag in Kharkov.

And yeah, a Russian acquaintance mentioned that they were planning to do exactly that, stop caring about any and all IP laws of foreign countries that sanctioned them.

There goes all of Google and Microsoft's revenue from Russia, as well as a lot of Apple's income.

There is a free, opensource app store already, and Xiaomi or baidu had their own, proprietary one.Android is, of course, a free, opensource OS anyone can download and run, without all the Google bloatware.

The Russian government can force every public and private institution to switch to Linux and FOSS products, like Libre/Openoffice.

Back when this first started I recall that Russia ordered that their companies utilize free and opensource or domestically produced software and that "Every piece of imported software has a Russian analog" or something like that.
Sberbank for example, IIRC built its customer platform on top of PostgreSQL and got rid of Oracle.

This means more loss of profits for SAP, Oracle, Microsoft and AWS.

I do hope Yandex or Mail.ru can pick up the slack, and Alicloud can probably help them out.

The hardest to remove will probably be the ERPs, and Yandex better up their game, from what I have seen their offerings are kinda meh.

Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and probably Xiaomi and AliCloud will be making a killing.Alibaba iirc had several office suite software as a service products that can probably be used as well.

 

[Arlos]

I am honestly worried Azov may go off the rails now that they are cut off from the bulk of the Ukrainian army, wouldn’t want to be in Mariupol right now.

 

[Agent23]

I am honestly worried Azov may go off the rails now that they are cut off from the bulk of the Ukrainian army, wouldn’t want to be in Mariupol right now.

IMHO it is at that point in the campaign where any sane military commander must see that Russian victory is close at hand.
If there are any regular Ukrainian army assets in the are then they should do what the German army did at Castle Itter and just team up with the Russians to take out the Azov Nazis.

 

[SchrodingersWehraboo]

I am honestly worried Azov may go off the rails now that they are cut off from the bulk of the Ukrainian army, wouldn’t want to be in Mariupol right now.

Oh, like they already are.

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[PsihoKekec]

The vehicles in Kherson base were probably not in drivable state.

I don't understand why the Soviets neglected their NCO's so badly when literally almost every successful army in recorded history had a strong NCO tradition even Germany punched way above its weight thanks to that.

The NCO sorps was seen as a tool of bourgeois oppression of the enlisted troops, so the earliest incarnation of the Red Army had no ranks but function titles. Once they they reintroduced the formal ranks, all leadership positions coalesced into officer ranks, because splitting your leaders into NCOs and officers would be bourgeois decadence, so the only kind of NCOs were senior conscripts (with next to no authority) and technical experts (for pay reason). Then the inertia carried this attitude on until the dissolution of the Soviet Union and a little bit more.

I am honestly worried Azov may go off the rails now that they are cut off from the bulk of the Ukrainian army, wouldn’t want to be in Mariupol right now.

There were reports of them killing some civilians who tried to escape the city, but no conclusive evidence to those claims yet.