Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

And Russia fucked over the Donbass by not sending in peacekeepers into the region immediately. Something like this would have probably been ideal:

2014: Russian peacekeepers sent to the Donbass. Also, Russia spends a lot of money in the Donbass to build up support for Russian annexation there.
2015 or 2016: Russian annexation of the Donbass occurs.

The rest of Ukraine would be allowed to pursue its European dreams, of course.

Truly the only equitable solution would be UN Peacekeepers to maintain the best interests and wishes of the Donbass Republics are ensured. ;)
 
Truly the only equitable solution would be UN Peacekeepers to maintain the best interests and wishes of the Donbass Republics are ensured. ;)

Good idea, to be honest. FWIW, support for federalization in the Donbass was in the 40% range in early 2014. However, even 40% support overall could theoretically translate into local majorities in parts of the Donbass, as evidenced by the results of the 1921 Upper Silesia plebiscite. In this plebiscite, only 41% of the total voters supported Polish rule over Upper Silesia but Poland nevertheless managed to win local majorities in certain areas:



Red = Pro-Poland, Blue = Pro-German. Again, the overall result was 59% pro-German and 41% pro-Polish.
 
Dude, Russia raised that possibility 5 years ago!

Link, please?

Also, FWIW, I suspect that most of the pro-federalization folks in the Donbass who were previously not in favor of union with Russia in early 2014 have changed their minds about this over the last eight years since the Minsk Accords don't actually appear to be going anywhere.

@History Learner I have a question for you: You oppose Ukrainian NATO membership because it would provoke Russia, who allegedly needs a buffer zone to protect itself from NATO. Would you have also supported a French military response to the German remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 for the same reason? As in, due to the logic that France needs a buffer zone to protect itself from Germany, as the subsequent events of 1940 ultimately ended up showing/proving?
 
Policy changes that Russia will not like.
And internally its the bigger problem - if the war escalates into Grozny level devastation... do you have any idea how much will Ukrainians grow to hate Russia? Sustaining any kind of friendly government would then would require an expensive occupation indefinitely, with insurgency for at minimum first few years.
How much western Ukrainians will grow to hate Russia. Ukrainians in Donbass and Crimea by and large seem to be supportive of what Russia is doing.
 
There's also this: Noman Çelebicihan Battalion

Consisting of Crimean Tatars who are loyal to Ukraine. I'm sure they might take in other non-whites who want a chance to fight Russia.

But some non-whites are too busy being Affirmative Action Kremlinologists! ;)


Ironically, if Ukrainians will, on average, begin behaving like US blacks do, then I'm sure that Russians would become desperate to get out of Ukraine in order to escape the Ukrainians similar to how a lot of US whites fled from US cities over the last several decades in order to escape mostly black violent crime.

How much western Ukrainians will grow to hate Russia. Ukrainians in Donbass and Crimea by and large seem to be supportive of what Russia is doing.

The Ukrainians in Crimea and the Donbass are largely, if not mostly, Russophone and thus could be viewed as being the most Sovokized element of the Ukrainian population. And in any case, Crimea is Russian-majority anyway, though the Donbass is not.
 
And Trump threatened to nuke Moscow. Which delayed this conflict for years.

Your point?
Guess we need to threaten to nuke Moscow again and remind ol' Putin that he isn't the only one with nukes. It needs to be made clear to him that if he lets fly with nukes that anyone and everyone who has both nukes and a beef with him will let fly in kind. Maybe that will make him step back a bit.
 
How much western Ukrainians will grow to hate Russia. Ukrainians in Donbass and Crimea by and large seem to be supportive of what Russia is doing.
Western Ukraine is already a hotbed of Russophobia, due to it being historically linked with not only Poland, but the former Austro-Hungarian Empire as well. Most of what is now Ukraine were once a part of the Tsarist Empire.
 
Link, please?
UN Peacekeepers To The Donbass?
During a press availability at conclusion of the BRICS summit in China on September 5, 2017, President Vladimir Putin announced he instructed Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to advance the idea of making the OSCE monitoring mission on the Donbass more effective through the introduction of armed UN peacekeepers. Lavrov was reportedly instructed to introduce an appropriate UN Security Council project resolution. Only a few hours after President Putin’s remarks, Russia’s ambassador to the UN Vasiliy Nebenzya echoed his words, adding that a resolution draft to that effect had already been forward to the UNSC chair and will be distributed among UNSC members.
 
I wonder how many of those 4,300 deaths were the result of on the ground battles with infantry, versus being bombarded by air and artillery during the first couple days.

The only thing that really stands out to me is the logistics. It seems that there are several videos of Russian vehicles stopped along the side of the road, apparently out of gas. Or stories of Russians asking Ukrainians for fuel (no idea if it's true). Seems like someone in the planning department screwed up? Or are we just seeing a few exceptions and this isn't representative of the whole?
We have video evidence of the Russians runing out of fuel and a Ukrainian driving past them
 
As I said in my post about the economics of the situation, Putin is too soft, he tried and treid and treid for a diplomatic solution and for international summets, etc, etc.

However, if he had done so neither the military reforms and modernization would have been completed, nor would Russia be independent where food was concerned.

They would be in much the same situation as now, but in a worse position.

EDIT:



Dude, I already posted a video of him and his column, alive.
it was just more Ukrainian agitprop.
You have yet to prove when the footage you had was taken compared to the footage I dmd you
Spearheads need to refuel from time to time. Makes sense to take a break when you need to rather than at regular intervals if you need to get somewhere quick.
They were selling fuel before the invasion went underway.
They didn't think they were going to invade.
 
How much western Ukrainians will grow to hate Russia. Ukrainians in Donbass and Crimea by and large seem to be supportive of what Russia is doing.
These are tiny parts of Ukraine's population, and its not like they get to say otherwise anyway.
Such as? That's the thing, they've played their hand, there is nothing more they can do other than have NATO declare war, but the western publics have zero stomach for major rationing that would result.
Long term ones. Finding alternatives to Russian fuels, Sweden and Finland joining NATO, more US bases in east NATO, this kind of things.
Ukrainians already hate Russia. It is pure fantasy that smashing Kyiv would result in a WW2 style guerrilla war in Ukraine.
If they have to do much smashing it means its already there.
People willing to support the Ukrainian army by fighting as part of militias is one thing, quite another to fight in extreme privation and danger as a guerrilla when occupied and the food supply is controlled by the enemy.
Russians may not be too willing to commit war crimes against population they plan to control at relatively low cost in near future.
If various guerillas in Middle East can hold up armies for a long time in much smaller cities, why a much bigger force in a much bigger city can't?
 
Western Ukraine is already a hotbed of Russophobia, due to it being historically linked with not only Poland, but the former Austro-Hungarian Empire as well. Most of what is now Ukraine were once a part of the Tsarist Empire.
Yeah, so if the Russians have to deal with western Ukraine it is gonna be gloves off.

I can see them targeting civillian infrastructure and making Western Ukraine miserable, and forcing refugee waves to fuck over the EUSSR after the morons decided to go nuts.
 
Long term ones. Finding alternatives to Russian fuels, Sweden and Finland joining NATO, more US bases in east NATO, this kind of things.
Where are these alternative pipelines going to come from? Syria was about that and they failed to overthrow the regime despite the horrific damage it caused. Sweden and Finland in NATO isn't really going to change that much, though it remains to be seen if either will pull that trigger, especially Finland.
NATO bases in Poland or the Baltics? LOL! Fuck no, no one is going to spend that kind of money. Germany will spend more to prop up their economy, but that's about it. The US cannot afford it and Germany is not going to build up enough to deploy forces east of their own country. France and Britain might make a show of things, but aren't going to build bases. Face it the west is impotent.

If they have to do much smashing it means its already there.
:rolleyes:

Russians may not be too willing to commit war crimes against population they plan to control at relatively low cost in near future.
If various guerillas in Middle East can hold up armies for a long time in much smaller cities, why a much bigger force in a much bigger city can't?
Muslim guerrillas are willing to sacrifice, reports are now that people in Ukrainian cities are bitching that the power is turned off. The arming of civilians is not going well either. Turns out you need a population capable of massive sacrifice and the skills to succeed to actually pull that off, which only the neo-Nazis in Ukraine actually had, but they are caught up in the east of the country.
 
I feel bad for the Ukrainian people, but I really have to wonder how many more times this sort of thing is going to happen. That is, a neighbor of Russia's which Russia has made it very clear doesn't want to align closely with the West getting strung along by the West until the Russians go to war with it outright, only for the same West to fail to offer them anywhere near enough aid to not get obliterated. Seems the West is doing more for Ukraine than they did for Georgia previously though, those guys never got Russia booted from SWIFT or European airspace closed to them even after helping the Coalition out in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There's so much bullshit and conflicting information flying around that I think I'll have to wait until the war's over and the dust has settled to get a clear picture of whatever's going on - reminds me of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war where the Armenians and Azeris were both rattling off insane claims (the Armenians moreso than the Azeris, IIRC) and stories of heroic feats out of a cartoon until suddenly it turned out Azerbaijan had won after all. But I am curious as to what a realistic compromise peace, assuming neither an outright Ukrainian victory (quite implausible without direct US/NATO aid by the looks of it) or a Russian stomp in the next week or month, would even look like at this point. Diplomatic Finlandization? Cession of the remainder of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts to their respective People's Republics? I read that Zelensky and Putin have agreed to send delegates to start negotiating on the Belarusian border earlier today, though with all the fighting still ongoing it doesn't look like the odds of anything actually coming out of it are good.
 

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