Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

Another Long Twitter Thread Showing Estimations Based off of Satellite Imagery Comparisons of possible losses or reductions of Russian military vehicles in storage.




Media released of a Ukrainian Strike upon the Russian Kushchyovskaya Airbase, more then two hundred kilometers away from Ukrainian territory. Various Airbase facilities and sheds were destroyed or damaged, including the munitions and glide bomb kits stored within some of the structures. Several Flankers may have also been damaged in the Ukrainian UAV attack.





A Ukrainian Yak-52 a two seat prop driven trainer was reportedly able to down two Russian reconaissance drones, an Orlan and a Zala, by the aircrafts rear machine gunner.



Perun did a video on the New American Military Aid Package for Ukraine, its delay from 2023 to now, what's in it and what the aid will do.



Long Twitter Thread from Analyst Rob Lee about how the passing of a new Aid Bill will aid Ukraine but also moderating expectations of what it will do. The latest announced package which will deliver significant amounts of artillery munitions, mines and Javelin/TOW ATGM's will be useful as recent Russian offensives have shown that over reliance on FPV drones for anti-armor measures is still an insufficient replacement for those sort of traditional anti-armor countermeasures on its own.

Other critical needs will include more armored vehicles, especially Bradleys but also armored Humvees as well as M113's for medical evacuation. Air defense systems including the announced deliver of NASAMs and Patriot but also more MANPADs and RIM-7/AIM-9M Missiles for converted FrankenSAM systems which will help push back Russian Air Force Glide Bomb attacks. However the biggest issue, and one that has been long stated, is the Manpower problem and one that should be resolved sooner rather than later and that Russia's quantitative advantage regardless of lack of quality can be sustained as long as Russia can get 20-30,000 volunteers per month as it is currently doing.

He predicts that due to delays in mobilization of more Ukrainian troops and in American aid, the latter half of 2024 when Russian Offensives are predicted to resume will be tough for Ukraine but as NATO/Western military production ramps up and hopefully Ukraine sorts out its manpower issues combined with continuing heavy Russian losses in equipment and troops 2025 can look more positive.In short the bill is important, but the military Aid needs to be measured against a longer term strategy.


Financial Times article on how sanctions are affecting Russian military industry and the Ukrainian Special Military Operation. Some notable bits include how the Russian advantage in firepower has been narrowing since Russians were reportedly firing 60,000 shells a day back in the Summer and Autumn of 2022 to peaking to around 10,000 a day at best in recent weeks even with lavish support from Iranian and North Korean stockpiles. Also sanctions have been affecting Russian ability to produce increasing quantities of precision drones, missiles, and guided bombs, compelling the Russians to mass produce lower quality munitions and equipment which isn't as decisive. Despite boasts of increasing military production, Russian artillery barrels are also being worn out, compelling replacement by Soviet-era artillery barrel stockpiles.

The most glaring problem, as long stated, is in manpower. Russia has been recruiting 30,000 volunteers a month, bringing troop totals in Ukraine from 360,000 a year ago to 470,000 currently. Financial incentives of pay surpassing five times the average wage a Russian can get in their countries poorer regions have helped forestall potential mobilization of more citizenry. But for decisive offensives with low tech weapons and narrowing firepower advantages would likely require more mobilized forces. This is because there is still a considerable lack of both officers and NCO's and general combat or military experience even at present.

 
He predicts that due to delays in mobilization of more Ukrainian troops and in American aid, the latter half of 2024 when Russian Offensives are predicted to resume will be tough for Ukraine but as NATO/Western military production ramps up and hopefully Ukraine sorts out its manpower issues combined with continuing heavy Russian losses in equipment and troops 2025 can look more positive.In short the bill is important, but the military Aid needs to be measured against a longer term strategy.
The West giving Ukraine the means to fight a long war is not a good thing at all for Russia. At the rate they are getting through equipment and vehicles, a longer war is not something they can win. They are able to keep up the current war effort thanks to their massive reserves of Soviet equipment, but that stockpile is not bottomless. If the conflict rumbles on for another few years, that stockpile will run out and the Russians may well be looking at a 1918 style collapse.
 
The West giving Ukraine the means to fight a long war is not a good thing at all for Russia. At the rate they are getting through equipment and vehicles, a longer war is not something they can win. They are able to keep up the current war effort thanks to their massive reserves of Soviet equipment, but that stockpile is not bottomless. If the conflict rumbles on for another few years, that stockpile will run out and the Russians may well be looking at a 1918 style collapse.
The big if in this is whether or not Russia can sustain the morale needed for that long and painful a fight. The smaller question is who/when decide Putin et al need to go.
 
someone doesnt understand attrition warfare or the concept of an unstable equilibrium
Attrition warfare is the last thing Russia wants in the long run. As stated, that Soviet stockpile is not bottomless.

Edit: That Ukraine still stands after two years of war is a disaster for Russian pride and arms. They are quite obviously no longer a superpower.
 
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Attrition warfare is the last thing Russia wants in the long run. As stated, that Soviet stockpile is not bottomless.

Edit: Thar Ukraine still stands after two years of war is a disaster for Russian pride and arms. They are quite obviously no longer a superpower.
Regardless of the outcome of this "Special Military Operation," Russia has lost hard.

Their economy is in ruins, the people are discontent and being drafted, their pride has been shattered, and they've been proven to not only be a pathetic, pale imitation of the giant they once were as the Soviet Union but in ineffectual one at that. Let's not go into the Wagner debacle, which were once championed as basically being the Russian Foreign Legion. smh

You know those videos where people shorn cows' hooves, see a black spot, and realize it was a massive cavity of infection filled with pus and shit? That's basically what's happened here with Russia and this "Special Military Operation".
 
Regardless of the outcome of this "Special Military Operation," Russia has lost hard.

Their economy is in ruins, the people are discontent and being drafted, their pride has been shattered, and they've been proven to not only be a pathetic, pale imitation of the giant they once were as the Soviet Union but in ineffectual one at that. Let's not go into the Wagner debacle, which were once championed as basically being the Russian Foreign Legion. smh

You know those videos where people shorn cows' hooves, see a black spot, and realize it was a massive cavity of infection filled with pus and shit? That's basically what's happened here with Russia and this "Special Military Operation".
Corruption has utterly crippled the Russian Bear and that is now plain for all to see. Better yet, with this revealed, thousands of vehicles destroyed and more than a third of a million casualties taken, Putin is still insisting on fighting this out to his country’s utter ruin. Straight out of the playbook of an insecure tyrant.

RIP in pepperoni Russian Federation, we hardly knew thee.
 
Russian Oil Refinery in Russian set ablaze for the second time in this conflict.



Summation of Recently Delivered and Pledged Military Aid to Ukraine including the large aid packages from the US and UK.



Kazakhstan Recently Sold America over eighty old Soviet era aircraft including MiG-27's, 29's and Su-27's, presumably to be used for spare parts for the Ukrainian Military.



Combat Footage of a Ukrainian M2 Bradley Reportedly Striking a Troop Carrying Russian MT-LB.



Russian Missile Strike in Odessa struck a recreational park, causing dozens of civilian casualties.



Operations Continuing Along the Dnieper River near Kherson.

 
What Wunderwaffe did Britain provide?
They've provided Storm Shadow Cruise missiles to Ukraine which already been used affectively against targets in russian controlled territories of Ukraine.
Most definitely about this. Meaning they are allowing Ukrainian to use those to attack in Russia proper instead of just occupied territories.
 

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