Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022
- Thread starter killerofa23
- Start date
Ukrainian sources have been reporting for the past hour that the Russians destroyed or damaged the Nova Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River north of Kherson City.
If true widespread flooding will occur on both sides of the River as the large reservoir is drained. This'll also potentially affect the water supply to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and water supplies to Crimea and Southern Ukraine in general.
After repeated silence/denials Russian Media is also stating the Dam has been damaged, blaming either accidents/neglect or "terrorism."
From October 2022.
If true widespread flooding will occur on both sides of the River as the large reservoir is drained. This'll also potentially affect the water supply to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and water supplies to Crimea and Southern Ukraine in general.
After repeated silence/denials Russian Media is also stating the Dam has been damaged, blaming either accidents/neglect or "terrorism."
From October 2022.
'Worst case' modeling of a breach of the Nova Kakhovka Dam. It would result in a four or five meter wave striking the Antonovsky Bridge about nineteen hours after the breach simulated. The water will move like a flood over the lowlands as opposed to some sort of "rushing wave" though it's uncertain if the Bridge could withstand the impact as that was not part of the simulation. The wave will rise in level further down the river and will largely drown out the delta at the mouth of the river over the next two days. The flow will also surge up the Inhulets and Bug River, causing flooding in the Mykolaiv Oblast and city proper. But it would be the areas on the left bank (or southeast bank/ Russian controlled) of the river that would be most affected and would almost certainly result in deaths from the flooding.
Worst case modelling for Nova Kakhovka dam break (UPDATED)
A worst case modelling for a russian demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dnipro river dam show that the worst flooding will take place on the left (south east) side of the river bank. A 4 - 5 m wave will hit the Antonovsky bridge east of Cherson city after 19 hours, and there will be a backswell floodincornucopia.se
Well... that just made things rather catastrophic. Although I do wonder with the fingers of blame flying but no videos of the dam's destruction out as of yet whether the dam was actually demolished or just failed due to the damage it took earlier in the war + no management.
No more water for the Crimean Canal, no water for any of the communities that relied on that reservoir, and no coolant water for Energodar NPP.
Only small silver linings with the dam gone means crossing the Dnipro during minimal flow is MUCH easier and can't be stopped by Russia blowing the dam intentionally.
No more water for the Crimean Canal, no water for any of the communities that relied on that reservoir, and no coolant water for Energodar NPP.
Only small silver linings with the dam gone means crossing the Dnipro during minimal flow is MUCH easier and can't be stopped by Russia blowing the dam intentionally.
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
Very interesting analysis by Ukraine Report on the NK dam breach
1. Energodar is running at such a minimal level and has its own pool such that it's probably safe for the next few months... assuming the Russians don't do anything more stupid.
2. Russia in a roundabout way admitted they blew the dam through Nova Khakovka's mayor admitting there were explosions and Ukraine was shelling the dam... when most of Ukraine's artillery is on the eastern front.
3. The Russians were trying to only partially demolish the dam to flood only the islands which Ukraine had gained control over... but since 'a little bit of demolition' doesn't work when there are cubic miles of water behind it... well... the result is rather apparent.
4. The reservoir is draining so rapidly that it's probable the Russians are going from a 50 mile front along the Dnipro to a 150 mile front along the Dnipro.
1. Energodar is running at such a minimal level and has its own pool such that it's probably safe for the next few months... assuming the Russians don't do anything more stupid.
2. Russia in a roundabout way admitted they blew the dam through Nova Khakovka's mayor admitting there were explosions and Ukraine was shelling the dam... when most of Ukraine's artillery is on the eastern front.
3. The Russians were trying to only partially demolish the dam to flood only the islands which Ukraine had gained control over... but since 'a little bit of demolition' doesn't work when there are cubic miles of water behind it... well... the result is rather apparent.
4. The reservoir is draining so rapidly that it's probable the Russians are going from a 50 mile front along the Dnipro to a 150 mile front along the Dnipro.
gral
Well-known member
That one looks to me like at bit of trying to make the silver lining in the cloud bigger than it is. Yes, it may be so, but what he's not saying is how much of a delay changing the starting point will cause(not to mention how much time the flooded area will be impassable).
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
It also deals with Ukraine briefly.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Is there a term meaning basically a strawman argument, but more extreme?
"Stay-puffed Marshmellow Man" argument?
Flood hasn't impacted the Russian Side of the Dam At All. The Liberated Peoples in Russian Occupied Novaya Kakhovka are going about their normal business.
In Ukrainian held Kherson however... Much Flooding.
Much Zelensky Visiting mere miles from the frontlines... again.
And to prove Zelensky can't protect his people, much shelling from the Russians upon Kherson evacuees soonafter.
In other news... Undertrained Russian Conscripts are guarding the Russian Border, Positioned Forward of the FSB Border Troops and National Guard/Rosgvardia to be used as expendable tripwire forces. There is also a bonus in that since they are serving in Russian territory proper, it's not a War Zone, so certain benefits can be denied these Conscripts, including in case of death or injury.
Long thread below!
In Ukrainian held Kherson however... Much Flooding.
Much Zelensky Visiting mere miles from the frontlines... again.
And to prove Zelensky can't protect his people, much shelling from the Russians upon Kherson evacuees soonafter.
In other news... Undertrained Russian Conscripts are guarding the Russian Border, Positioned Forward of the FSB Border Troops and National Guard/Rosgvardia to be used as expendable tripwire forces. There is also a bonus in that since they are serving in Russian territory proper, it's not a War Zone, so certain benefits can be denied these Conscripts, including in case of death or injury.
Long thread below!
I have to think either the commenter, the cameraman or both are doing an unsubtle criticism of the Russian government in that video considering how clearly underwater the town is below them.
Pair of interesting threads on the Dam Collapse and its ramifications.
Apparently most of the hydroelectric station itself is submerged and likely being eroded and the outflow will continue for at least another week until the waters reach what will apparently be pre-reservoir levels. The width of the Dnipro River is expected to shrink by kilometers. Numerous irrigation canals which support much of Southern Ukraine's agricultural infrastructure, will dry up, as will the canal that supplies freshwater to Crimea (though in the short term that won't be an issue as Russia filled up the Crimean Reservoirs earlier this year before allowing the reservoir to reach historically high levels).
threadreaderapp.com
And a thread on the various canals that supply Southern Ukraine (and Crimea).
Apparently most of the hydroelectric station itself is submerged and likely being eroded and the outflow will continue for at least another week until the waters reach what will apparently be pre-reservoir levels. The width of the Dnipro River is expected to shrink by kilometers. Numerous irrigation canals which support much of Southern Ukraine's agricultural infrastructure, will dry up, as will the canal that supplies freshwater to Crimea (though in the short term that won't be an issue as Russia filled up the Crimean Reservoirs earlier this year before allowing the reservoir to reach historically high levels).
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The Kakhovka reservoir has reached 'dead pool' only two days after its dam was breached, and is no longer able to supply settlements or the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. It's expected to stabilise...…
threadreaderapp.com
And a thread on the various canals that supply Southern Ukraine (and Crimea).