Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[Scottty]

What I see here, is that Americans seem addicted to seeing all political problems in terms of there being one Bad Person in charge of this or that country. Whether it's Saddam Hussien, or liberals hating George W Bush, or liberals going apeshit over Donald Trump, or the keyhole vision they show on current events... everything to them is all about one specific person.

Political movements, the socio-economic situations that lead groups of people to go one way or the other, why large numbers of their fellow humans would see one option as the lesser evil to another... that's all invisible to them. To acknowledge it would mean having to abandon their childish sense of moral superiority.

Go and watch that "rules for rulers" video sometime. No man rules alone.

 

[Marduk]

What I see here, is that Americans seem addicted to seeing all political problems in terms of there being one Bad Person in charge of this or that country. Whether it's Saddam Hussien, or liberals hating George W Bush, or liberals going apeshit over Donald Trump, or the keyhole vision they show on current events... everything to them is all about one specific person.

Political movements, the socio-economic situations that lead groups of people to go one way or the other, why large numbers of their fellow humans would see one option as the lesser evil to another... that's all invisible to them. To acknowledge it would mean having to abandon their childish sense of moral superiority.

Go and watch that "rules for rulers" video sometime. No man rules alone.

The core of the problem is that Ukraine and Russia have conflict of understanding about the nature of Ukraine.
Russian establishment line now is that Ukrainians are not a real nation, just Russians confused by history and western propaganda, while Ukraine as a state is an artificial political creation of the fall of Soviet Union.
Ukrainians meanwhile consider themselves a real nation who wants an independent country, no different from Poland, Germany or Romania.
Both sides are acting accordingly, and there doesn't seem to be much room for compromise between these core assumptions about the situation.

 

[Captain X]

What I see here, is that Americans seem addicted to seeing all political problems in terms of there being one Bad Person in charge of this or that country. Whether it's Saddam Hussien, or liberals hating George W Bush, or liberals going apeshit over Donald Trump, or the keyhole vision they show on current events... everything to them is all about one specific person.

Political movements, the socio-economic situations that lead groups of people to go one way or the other, why large numbers of their fellow humans would see one option as the lesser evil to another... that's all invisible to them. To acknowledge it would mean having to abandon their childish sense of moral superiority.

Go and watch that "rules for rulers" video sometime. No man rules alone.

Putin is a pretty horrible person, though - he has a pretty extensive track record. That isn't to say he's the only bad person in Russia, but he is the one leading it right now, and is responsible for this invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Scottty]

Putin is a pretty horrible person, though - he has a pretty extensive track record. That isn't to say he's the only bad person in Russia, but he is the one leading it right now, and is responsible for this invasion of Ukraine.

Apparently I have the power to put things into orbit, given how far over your head the actual point there seems to have gone.

Putin is leading Russia right now because he is the sort of person who can get and keep the leadership of a country like Russia. Compare that with the quality of leadership that a certain other country we could mention produces...

 

[Husky_Khan]

Slovenian consulate? That was the Karkhov city administration building (stockpiled with guns) and the tent outside was an Azov recruiting center.

If that is the embassy account it should have a checkmark.

Well if it's not legit it looks like it's being quoted by some interesting Slovene officials regardless.

Maybe just not important.

And the "Consulate" in this regard was apparently just some offices as Butch R Mann said.

 

[Scottty]

The core of the problem is that Ukraine and Russia have conflict of understanding about the nature of Ukraine.
Russian establishment line now is that Ukrainians are not a real nation, just Russians confused by history and western propaganda, while Ukraine as a state is an artificial political creation of the fall of Soviet Union.
Ukrainians meanwhile consider themselves a real nation who wants an independent country, no different from Poland, Germany or Romania.
Both sides are acting accordingly, and there doesn't seem to be much room for compromise between these core assumptions about the situation.

And China is quietly supporting Russia's side on this for an obvious reason: Taiwan.

 

[Zachowon]

Your position is well thought-out, but I find this hard to believe. Simply put, amassing between 100,000 to 200,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, deploying warships to the Black Sea, and positioning troops north of Kiev--is an obvious, obvious indicator that Russia was prepared to use military force. Even when it looked as though the Russians were escalating to de-escalate, we had US and UK intelligence agencies outright coming out and claiming that Russia was amassing for an invasion. They were even laying out Russia's possible (and probable) invasion strategy.

No, I don't think the UKA failed to mobilize because Putin played his hand well. The UKA failed to mobilize because Zelensky is a fucking idiot. He failed to mobilize the UKA in response to the Russian threat, I expect because he didn't want to help feed into any possible Russian false-flag operation that would act as Putin's golden ticket to invade Ukraine with the blessing of the Russians and some Ukrainians. He perhaps thought that if he could avoid flinching, that Putin wouldn't attack, because he would lack the excuse.

Now, I can't speak to military strategy to any strong degree, but I think this is what happened. I think that US and UK intelligence actually did learn what Putin's invasion plan was. With Russia taking chunks away from Ukraine and slowly escalating from there, until it took Kiev. When the West exposed those plans, I think Putin and his generals were put in a tight spot. They couldn't go through with those invasion plans now--but they couldn't turn back either. And the West was not giving into their demands.

So I think what Putin and his generals did was switch gears to a new plan, which involved an all-out assault on Ukraine. Zelensky, who had been convinced through allied intelligence what Putin's invasion plan would be if it came down to a war, did not see the telling signs and not wanting to provoke Russia, did not mobilize the UKA. It looks to me that Putin and his generals then launched an all out attack, hoping to crush and demoralize the Ukrainian forces before they could even mobilize.

I think the result has been a mix. The UKA was not properly mobilized and Russia was able to inflict heavy damage that they might not of otherwise been able to. That said, while the UKA was never properly mobilized in time and suffered heavy losses because of it, I think the UKA did not break as Moscow had hoped. And instead, Kiev is now using social media and some blatant propaganda to counter mobilize widespread resistance to Russian invasion. It's difficult to tell what sort of effect that is having--because Kiev is going to do all that it can to make such a move successful and the West is going to feed into it.

I think what is happening is that the ad-hoc plan that Moscow had used has run its course. It had a mixture of success and failure, so now Moscow is switching to a new plan. I think the danger is that the Russians were not prepared for this sort of attack logistically, which is why everything seems so sloppy right now. The shift in strategy is coming/already in the works, so what happens now is probably going to be even more dangerous.

I think the real key here is just how strong the identity of Ukrainian nationality really is. It's a difficult game. The Russians need to break the UKA's will to fight, without killing too many civilians, otherwise it will just redouble Ukrain's willingness to fight. At the same time, Zelensky's propaganda, while somewhat unexpected, has been weak and even ham-fisted at times. Zelensky only needs to overextend himself or suffer a large defeat for his warrior-king image to evaporate back into the ether from which it came.

Zelensky didn't mobilize because he knew Russia would claim he was preparing to invade the Donbass. So he waited until the peacekeepers came into thr Donbass

Maybe there's a reason those tanks were abandoned?

Idk. They seem o be working order from what civies have seen near them

 

[Marduk]

Zelensky didn't mobilize because he knew Russia would claim he was preparing to invade the Donbass. So he waited until the peacekeepers came into thr Donbass

That's a somewhat likely scenario. That's one of the things i meant by political cost. But was it worth it? History will tell. Could be irrelevant, could be his worst mistake.

Idk. They seem o be working order from what civies have seen near them

Either abandoned due to expecting AT ambush while not having infantry cover, out of fuel, or mobility breakdown.

 

[Zachowon]

That's a somewhat likely scenario. That's one of the things i meant by political cost. But was it worth it? History will tell. Could be irrelevant, could be his worst mistake.

Either abandoned due to expecting AT ambush while not having infantry cover, out of fuel, or mobility breakdown.

Most seem to be just left so probrably the first one or second

 

[Marduk]

Most seem to be just left so probrably the first one or second

Well if engine broke or transmission failed it doesn't need to be visible from the outside either.
These tanks did quite a bit of movement under own power without servicing before so not unreasonable for some to break down randomly.

 

[Zachowon]

Well if engine broke or transmission failed it doesn't need to be visible from the outside either.
These tanks did quite a bit of movement under own power without servicing before so not unreasonable for some to break down randomly.

Still.
Free tank

 

[Chiron]

Someone saying the US sent Special forces to hold roads?
What? That is literally NOT thier job. Green berets are to train friendly forces and form an insurgency, or perform small team strike missions.
Most Special forces are for small team stuff, not things that could have them engage a larger force.
Supply lines are protected by MPs and armed convoy routes. You have checkpoints throughout to be able to be places to go from point to point.
Sire ambushes happen but it allows quick retaliation from a closer checkpoint

No but if no one else is, you might as well do it or you die of privation. By conceding the roads, the US set itself up for failure. Then again it failed to train a non-corrupt officers corps for the Afghan Army that could secure the roads, another failure on their part.

Chiron please don't goalpost shift. You initially stated that conscripts didnt go to Vietnam and your above information disproves that fact. The argument over how many more of which died either conscripts or volunteer is another matter entirely.

I will admit to poor word choices, but the actual point I was making was that the Vietnam War wasn't a Conscript vs Conscript War. The US sent a largely volunteer force. Frankly the failure to pour in double the troops was a result of not conscripting more folks or just writing the entire thing off and cutting a deal with Ho while the their was still a deal to be cut.




Kharkiv looks to be entering the decisive phase, and Kherson in the south has fallen.

 

[Scottty]

You do know how hard it is to guard roads when you are trying to not be a military occupation?
The ambushes often happend on roads because of how open they were in A-stan at times.
We found way around that as time went on...
But you would know that.
Having SOF defending a road is how you lose your SOF teams. They are for small target quick in and out missions.
You usually use MPs for protecting convoys and roads. Because they are suited ror that

One can imagine a long row of soldiers standing guard at the roadside, all along the length of the road. But I'm guessing... not like that.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Zelensky didn't mobilize because he knew Russia would claim he was preparing to invade the Donbass. So he waited until the peacekeepers came into thr Donbass

He should have mobilized sooner. Russia was already committed when it had assembled so many troops on its border.

That's a somewhat likely scenario. That's one of the things i meant by political cost. But was it worth it? History will tell. Could be irrelevant, could be his worst mistake.

No. He wasn't able to mobilize the UKA and allowed Russia a great deal of mobility.

 

[Zachowon]

He should have mobilized sooner. Russia was already committed when it had assembled so many troops on its border.



No. He wasn't able to mobilize the UKA and allowed Russia a great deal of mobility.

He was basically trying to make sure his actions could not be spun against him

 

[Sailor.X]

Putin is a pretty horrible person, though - he has a pretty extensive track record. That isn't to say he's the only bad person in Russia, but he is the one leading it right now, and is responsible for this invasion of Ukraine.

I also have a sinking feeling that sometime in the near future Putin will get a big smite from God Almighty Personally. Just look at the last days of every tyrant and dictator in history. They tend not to get peaceful deaths.

 

[Bacle]

I also have a sinking feeling that sometime in the near future Putin will get a big smite from God Almighty Personally. Just look at the last days of every tyrant and dictator in history. They tend not to get peaceful deaths.

*Points to Castro*Sometimes they do get peaceful deaths, and outlast thier foes.

Short of a coup, Putin is likely going to be in charge of Russia till he dies or becomes to old to do functions of state, then will pass the reins to a chosen successor.

 

[Zachowon]

US Politician: I lost the entire war because you saw an unsecured road our supplies travels and decided it wasn't your job to guard it till new forces could be deployed to do it?

US SOF: We killed High Value Target X.

US Politician: You're all fired, I will hire people who can actually win wars.

While clearly not what went down in the Afghan Debacle, if we had actual accountability, that is exactly what should have had happened. US forces trained the Afghan Army, said Army was corrupt as fuck and fell apart. Ergo US Forces failed their job and thus need to own it and fix themselves or be replaced by people who can do the job. But it is clear you drank your own Kool-Aide long ago and thus incapable of self-reflection.

That...isn't how that works dude.
It would be on the generals for that not the Special Forces.
They are often inserted close to where e HVT is or thier stroct mission is to go after X.
If they stopped that and def3nded a road, well we probably just lost a whole SF team or a HVT that could have stalled enemy operations in the AO is still alive because of it.

You seem to think roads are just left unsecured as forces ouch forward in US Doctrinw

 

[Sailor.X]

*Points to Castro*Sometimes they do get peaceful deaths, and outlast thier foes.

Short of a coup, Putin is likely going to be in charge of Russia till he dies or becomes to old to do functions of state, then will pass the reins to a chosen successor.

Fidel was riddled with old people sicknesses before he died. Why else do you think his brother had to take over for him. He got the smite job.

 

[The Original Sixth]

He was basically trying to make sure his actions could not be spun against him

I get that, but in doing so he left his country wide open for invasion. And it didn't work. It was never going to work. Because Putin was always going to invade. He'd assembled around 200,000 troops on the border around Ukraine. He had logistics in place to support an invasion. He had freaking blood being moved in. Sacrificing the UKA wasn't worth the political capital.