Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

[LTR]

Sixty Nine (that's what she said) posts have been moved to the Donbass Derail Discussion thread. Unfortunately some of the posts blended discussion with the actual invasion with a lot of other topics such as Iran, the Vietnam War, China, Canada etc but alas... almost none were spared since I wanted to try and keep the discussion as intact as possible. I briefly considered leaving the discussion here but the discussion tangent, while sometimes related to the Invasion itself, often drifted hard on hypotheticals and other topics and issues and some of the posts were dominated the pages and thread itself so it was all mostly shunted over to the other thread.

Keep in mind, the intention of this thread is to focus on the Invasion and events and context immediately and directly related to it, not scrolling through post after post dominating page after page of discussion not dealing with the Invasion directly. Drifting tangents of discussion will be pruned into the DonbAss thread or maybe other threads if practical (to me). The primary purpose of this thread is for content on the War, not commentary.

And keep in mind what was said earlier... if faced with possible disinfo, counter with evidence or arguments targeting the evidence, not the poster. This thread isn't for flame wars between posters. Try and keep the discussion civil. And no memes and try and not to spam/multipost if practical. I know the latter is hard because of conversational drift and you might want to collate multiple responses but make an attempt.

This is a war with lots of issues, ideologies and very real impact and potential consequences people are considering when they view and react to this Invasion. Just try not to be asshats and be civil to each other and in treating this ongoing Conflict in particular in this thread.

That is all... Good Work or whatever. Keep it up!

 

[Zachowon]

I get that, but in doing so he left his country wide open for invasion. And it didn't work. It was never going to work. Because Putin was always going to invade. He'd assembled around 200,000 troops on the border around Ukraine. He had logistics in place to support an invasion. He had freaking blood being moved in. Sacrificing the UKA wasn't worth the political capital.

Yes.
But agagain, it is all-out optics.

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

Day 6, a couple of quick points | The Vineyard of the Saker

A bird's eye view of the vineyard

thesaker.is

 

[Battlegrinder]

This is some barely amateur tier propaganda.

It's not propaganda so much as it is "newsroom intern frantically shoving clips together and making a mistake", propaganda implies a specific intent.

I've noticed the Ukrainian war discourse seems to have people assuming that everything someone says is the product of far more certainty and knowledge then we actually have, and people are throwing out terms like "lie" and "misinformation" and "propaganda" when what they mean is "mistake" or "ignorance", and in general I'd encourage a spirit of charity here. It's not called the Fog of War because it's famously easy to get a clear picture of events.

 

[Buba]

FWIW - the map is in Russian.

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

It's not propaganda so much as it is "newsroom intern frantically shoving clips together and making a mistake", propaganda implies a specific intent.

I've noticed the Ukrainian war discourse seems to have people assuming that everything someone says is the product of far more certainty and knowledge then we actually have, and people are throwing out terms like "lie" and "misinformation" and "propaganda" when what they mean is "mistake" or "ignorance", and in general I'd encourage a spirit of charity here. It's not called the Fog of War because it's famously easy to get a clear picture of events.

The mistakes are disproportionately in one direction, and often made by professional "journalists" who claim they work hard to deliver the truth. There can be no excusing journos on account of their "frantic" newsrooms, that's their shit to sort out. It is literally their job. If they are shit at their job they should be shit on for it.

Meanwhile, Russian state media is making modest and generally verifiable claims.

Russia claims it has taken control of major Ukrainian city

The Russian Defense Ministry has said its forces are taking full control of the Ukrainian city of Kherson

www.rt.com

 

[Abhorsen]

FWIW - the map is in Russian.

Also, if you take a quick read from the author, they are solidly on the pro-Russian side. So I'd need some other source to verify the front lines here.

The blue arrow seems wrong from what I've read as well, it seems more like they are retreating from there.

The mistakes are disproportionately in one direction, and often made by professional "journalists" who claim they work hard to deliver the truth. There can be no excusing journos on account of their "frantic" newsrooms, that's their shit to sort out. It is literally their job. If they are shit at their job they should be shit on for it.

Meanwhile, Russian state media is making modest and generally verifiable claims.

Russia claims it has taken control of major Ukrainian city

The Russian Defense Ministry has said its forces are taking full control of the Ukrainian city of Kherson

www.rt.com

What you are describing is two propaganda strategies being used for different purposes. Ukraine doesn't give a shit about their info's credibility long term, because why bother? Unless a miracle happens, they are gone in the short term. And so it's propaganda is trying to portray itself as resisting well to winning, and highlighting every success, real or fake. What's the payoff? The West actually giving a shit and supplying arms, and (again, from Ukraine's perspective) hopefully joining, along with a very needed morale boost.

In contrast, Russia isn't doing as well as she wished from neutral sources, and is having a slow invasion. So sober talk about verifiable wins makes the war more boring, and doesn't expose them to ridicule later on. Basically, Russia knows it just needs a boring as fuck war, and it'll eventually win, why bother doing exciting things?

Basically, if you are behind in a game or sport, you take crazy chances (pulling your goalie, for example). It's about raising the 'heat' or variance of the game. If you are significantly ahead, lower the heat and make it boring quick, because without a surprise you will win.

 

[Battlegrinder]

The mistakes are disproportionately in one direction, and often made by professional "journalists" who claim they work hard to deliver the truth. There can be no excusing journos on account of their "frantic" newsrooms, that's their shit to sort out. It is literally their job. If they are shit at their job they should be shit on for it.

Yes, journalists are uselessly inept screw-up who are bad at thier jobs, and often biased on top of that. This is something everyone on the right has been saying for decades now. Your point?

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

Yes, journalists are uselessly inept screw-up who are bad at thier jobs, and often biased on top of that. This is something everyone on the right has been saying for decades now. Your point?

After a week of falsified UkA kills, fanciful hopes-and-feelz stories, and shilling for Zelensky, there is a really obvious pattern in the globalist media "journalism".

The mistakes globalist media makes are almost entirely in one direction. Those probably aren't mistakes, but propaganda.

 

[Battlegrinder]

After a week of falsified UkA kills, fanciful hopes-and-feelz stories, and shilling for Zelensky, there is a really obvious pattern in the globalist media "journalism".

The mistakes globalist media makes are almost entirely in one direction. Those probably aren't mistakes, but propaganda.

This is the exact "they said something wrong, therefore they are lying to us" behavior I was suggesting people avoid.

Caling it propaganda implies the media knows that what they're being told is BS, and they're repeating it intentionally in order to support Ukraine. Given this is the same media that cannot tell the difference between an AR-15 and a AKM, I doubt they're actually savvy enough to see through any Ukraine deception.

More likely, they're just idiots being duped by Ukraine, because they, like pretty much anyone that isn't Russian, are sympathetic toward Ukraine and are not inclined to try and sow doubt about what they've been told.

 

[Sir 1000]

One wrong does not justify another, but also, again, I have no issue with coups with significant popular support. Second, he was actually impeached by the elected congress, so this was a democratic exchange of power. People seem to forget that. You are also forgetting that Russia invaded then too.


Agreed. But that's if you toss morality.

At the same time, I'm for America because it's the one true beacon of freedom in the world. Attacked from all sides, it continues nonetheless, and I will fight for it to continue into the future. For all the doom and gloom, America has been getting freer over all clearly up until 2000, and even despite setbacks, other parts of America have become freer overtime because of technology outpacing regulation. So yes, I want America to do well because it is the only country that actually cares deeply about freedom, and that's an important value to me.

So given a war is happening, I'll support the side that got attacked (Ukraine), and barring that, I'll support the side (Ukraine again!) whose success helps the only country that cares about liberty.


No, I'm disappointed here. I had a frankly higher expectation of Russia's capabilities. Seriously, they haven't even gotten to the Urban combat in Kiev yet. Like I'd understand going door to door in a city is difficult and takes time. But they are still on the outskirts 3-4 days in. That's frankly underwhelming.

Sorry bout the wait as we had to clean and paint the kitchen. Like are you seriously disappointed/surprised a country close to the size of France and Germany combined hasn't fallen in days? Even if it takes as long as a month that is still absurd.

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

This is the exact "they said something wrong, therefore they are lying to us" behavior I was suggesting people avoid.

Caling it propaganda implies the media knows that what they're being told is BS, and they're repeating it intentionally in order to support Ukraine. Given this is the same media that cannot tell the difference between an AR-15 and a AKM, I doubt they're actually savvy enough to see through any Ukraine deception.

More likely, they're just idiots being duped by Ukraine, because they, like pretty much anyone that isn't Russian, are sympathetic toward Ukraine and are not inclined to try and sow doubt about what they've been told.

They spoke falsehoods... over and over... and their falsehoods were in favor of Ukraine and against Russia... over and over...

It is not merely that globalist media were wrong many times, they do that all the time. It is that their "mistakes" have a demonstrably partisan nature. That is what identifies their "mistakes" as propaganda, that partisan divide.

 

[Battlegrinder]

Yes, I'm sure the Israeli news service that was putting this footage together was trying to imply Russia was evil by suggesting they have TIE fighters in thier inventory, because they're biased against Russia and want to suggest they're like the empire. It's the most plausible explanation for the final result.

 

[Abhorsen]

Sorry bout the wait as we had to clean and paint the kitchen. Like are you seriously disappointed/surprised a country close to the size of France and Germany combined hasn't fallen in days? Even if it takes as long as a month that is still absurd.

No prob about the wait.

And it's not that I'm expecting them to have completely fallen, but not getting Kiev? They got there in like the first two days when that's a priority target. Then they've been trying to take it for the rest of the week.

They've been basically winning because of numbers. I thought they'd be winning cause numbers, logistics, training, tactics, etc.

It's unimpressive when this should have been a Putin propaganda win.

 

[Bacle]

Good point on how the anti-Russia moves by many companies and gov are worrisome, even if they feel justified right now, because of how they infringe on free speech, freedom of association, how those sorts of things were already under threat due to the Wu Flu and 1/6 and could be just as easily used against anyone in the future who doesn't approve of gov policies.

 

[Sailor.X]

There is a little fun game I play called World at Arms. One of the games I have been playing for a while. Yesterday I got a message in my game feed from the developers informing the player base that the Game is in a restricted mode because the main servers for the game are in Ukraine and Russian Forces might take out the area the server is in. So yeah Fuck you Putin Fuck you.

 

[Chiron]

Allegedly intercepted trash talk in the initial battles. Well both sides played Call of Duty way to much.



First Russian MoD causality numbers release. Likely lagging behind a few days.

But this was likely concentrated in the 1st echelons who were sent in Zapp Brannigan Style.

One of the better maps on the campaign so far

So far, UkA is reduced to local counter-attacks and is unable to generate a Corps-level attack to push the Russians back. This is causing their forces to be expended to no real effect. And a large pocket of Chernikiv and Nizhyn is forming. Konotop despite early reports is still in Ukrainian Hands. Expect the remnants of the 1st echelons to begin the reduction of these pockets now that they should be reorganized and stragglers rounded up.

What to expect. The Kherson Fronts to swing east to the Dnieper and VDV to begin seizing the bridges of Dnipro, Zap, and Kremenchuk. While Cherkassy and Kaniv get their bridges bombed. Commitment of OMGs from their 3rd echelon's reserves to seize Zhitomyr and push down the highway to Vinnystia Oblast.

 

[Zachowon]

Allegedly intercepted trash talk in the initial battles. Well both sides played Call of Duty way to much.



First Russian MoD causality numbers release. Likely lagging behind a few days.

But this was likely concentrated in the 1st echelons who were sent in Zapp Brannigan Style.

One of the better maps on the campaign so far

So far, UkA is reduced to local counter-attacks and is unable to generate a Corps-level attack to push the Russians back. This is causing their forces to be expended to no real effect. And a large pocket of Chernikiv and Nizhyn is forming. Konotop despite early reports is still in Ukrainian Hands. Expect the remnants of the 1st echelons to begin the reduction of these pockets now that they should be reorganized and stragglers rounded up.

What to expect. The Kherson Fronts to swing east to the Dnieper and VDV to begin seizing the bridges of Dnipro, Zap, and Kremenchuk. While Cherkassy and Kaniv get their bridges bombed. Commitment of OMGs from their 3rd echelon's reserves to seize Zhitomyr and push down the highway to Vinnystia Oblast.

I lost all faith in Russian tactics when they constantly seem to be losing VDV planes before destination or dropping them into frozen water for them to die before making it ashore

 

[Bacle]

I lost all faith in Russian tactics when they constantly seem to be losing VDV planes before destination or dropping them into frozen water for them to die before making it ashore

Yeah, losing 50 VDV to drowning because of a bad drop is something that I had thought Russia was better than.

 

[Zachowon]

Yeah, losing 50 VDV to drowning because of a bad drop is something that I had thought Russia was better than.

Dropping VDV/Spetsnaz to capture an Airfield without support, they have done MANY times