We have video evidence that they ran out of fuel at least once. A Ukrainian was driving past a Russian convoy that Halted because out of fuel. We then have captured Russian MREs that are expired.I mean what actual evidence is there that they have run out of fuel and food? A few POW's here and there that have probably been tortured and will say whatever they think will make it stop?
We know TB2s have been targeting fuel trucks based of footage
I doubt it will fall that quickly.I think it holds for a couple days, then collapses. The Ukrainians lack the tools needed to break out. Neither side has shown a willingness to fight to the death. They last a couple days, the Russians finish pinpointing all the important strong points and take them out, the rest of the defenders pack it in.
They Don't need to break out. Just need the Russians to give up fighting in a city
It won't be that quick.That and:
We are seeing pictures of single digit losses here and there, occasionally a spot where UkA AT commando teams hit a section. What we are not seeing is entire battalion groups annihilated.
This means the UkA is reduced to local counter attacks and is unable to make a large Corps Level Attack to push the Russians back out of the country and has limited ability to move.
The Russians on the other hand are pushing in their third echelons to deal the death blows now that the 1st and 2nd echelons have done their job in pinning the UkA and forcing them to fritter their reserves in local counter-attacks that are too weak to turn the tide.
And the rate of advance is still faster than the US in the 2003 Iraq War. Its also faster than the German rate of advance in Barbarossa. Chances are that the UkA will begin rapidly disintegrating in the next 72 hours.
Hell. There is footage of Bucha that shows easily a large number of Russuan vehicles taken out in the streets. And a neutral group who likes to count has shown the Russians have lost more vehicles in thier invasion then the US did in Iraq.
Eh, the military is more focused in both. And with the bad Russian army showing we may switchI think this is actually a bad outcome for the US as well, Because it draws its attention away from the real rising threat that is China.